Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 11:21:01 GMT
I am looking forward to the NE poll. CC and by-election results would suggest that UKIP is taking as much or more from labour than from the Tory shire areas in the far West and North. It's true that UKIP have been able to manage some decent votes in Labour areas - 20% in Rotherham (plus a council seat in a subsequent by-election), 24% in South Shields, and some clear, though usually distant, second places in local by-elections. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that they are taking many votes directly from Labour. In most of these contests, the Tory and LibDem votes have collapsed. UKIP may just be rallying the existing non-Labour vote in those areas. Plus, they also appear to attract some support from people who don't normally vote at all. I think your analysis is wishful thinking - you are, after all, a right-winger who wants to believe that hardline right-wing policies can attract broad support including from people who are traditionally on the left.I don't think my brand of politics is particularly popular. I think a hard-right wing liberal party could get 5% of the vote in a PR election and form a coalition with centerist Liberals and/or more populist conservatives. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 11:21:08 GMT
Seats East Midlands: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1 East of England: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2 London: Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 North East: Lab 2, UKIP 1 North West; Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 South East: Con 3, Lab 3, UKIP 2, LDm 1, Grn 1 South West: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 West Mids: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2 Yorkshire: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 1 Scotland: Lab 3, SNP 2, Con 1 Wales: Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1 Lab 31 (+18), Con 17 (-8), UKIP 12 (-1), LDm 4 (-7), Grn 1 (-1), SNP 2, PC 1 + 3 Norn Iron I certainly don't see us losing our London MEP. 2 MEPs nationally is at the bottom of my expectations. I agree with Richard that UKIP coming third would be absolutely demoralising for their activists, and could turn round the progress that the party has been making organisationally and electorally. I also don't think it will happen. Remember that although this is a Euro poll, and is noticeably different in its result from any general election poll, I'm not convinced that all who would have been surveyed would have taken on board the real difference about European elections - that their vote does really count and they don't have to vote tactically - and the strength of feeling amongst different sectors of voters about how they feel about the EU (whether in or out). I suspect the end result will be close between Labour and UKIP, at around but not above 30%, Conservatives a fair way back from these and ourselves and the Lib Dems neck and neck. A London region YouGov EU poll before Christmas had the Greens losing their seat in London by a percent or so. So it's possible, although unlikely. They've bee increasing a wee bit election by election, but that has only just kept them above the threshold as London lost MEP seats. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 11, 2014 15:03:06 GMT
Also, I would argue that the UKIP vote was artificially inflated by Expensesgate in 2009, so they have less room to grow than may at first appear. A rightwing populist party will always have quite a low ceiling on its potential support. This point cannot be understated. I wasn't involved in the 2009 campaign but I know a very clued up former party activist who was out pretty much every weekend from January onwards and he has always been adamant that the expenses scandal changed everything and that the vast majority of people saying they were voting UKIP cited expenses as their main reason. |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 11, 2014 15:14:33 GMT
I think your analysis is wishful thinking - you are, after all, a right-winger who wants to believe that hardline right-wing policies can attract broad support including from people who are traditionally on the left. What do you mean by the term 'right-wing'? I wouldn't describe either libertarianism or populism as being straightforwardly 'right-wing'. Neither would I say that state socialism is straightforwardly 'left wing'. |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 11, 2014 15:16:55 GMT
Is it only me that thinks that labour may have a real problem with turnout? No more so than usual. But also remember the boot is on the other foot this time; this will be the first time in 20 years that we have had Euro elections while the Tories were in government. And we will be helped by having simultaneous local elections in London, the metropolitan boroughs and urban unitary councils. This is the other way round from last time in 2009 when it was the Tory shires that had simultaneous local elections but there was nothing else on in the urban areas. I have an inkling that you are right about this and that this time it will be the Conservatives who will have more difficulty with turnout. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 15:33:57 GMT
Also, I would argue that the UKIP vote was artificially inflated by Expensesgate in 2009, so they have less room to grow than may at first appear. A rightwing populist party will always have quite a low ceiling on its potential support. This point cannot be understated. I wasn't involved in the 2009 campaign but I know a very clued up former party activist who was out pretty much every weekend from January onwards and he has always been adamant that the expenses scandal changed everything and that the vast majority of people saying they were voting UKIP cited expenses as their main reason. But UKIP polled the same in 2009 as 2004 - so it wasn't like that level was unprecedented. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 11, 2014 15:40:10 GMT
Also, I would argue that the UKIP vote was artificially inflated by Expensesgate in 2009, so they have less room to grow than may at first appear. A rightwing populist party will always have quite a low ceiling on its potential support. This point cannot be understated. I wasn't involved in the 2009 campaign but I know a very clued up former party activist who was out pretty much every weekend from January onwards and he has always been adamant that the expenses scandal changed everything and that the vast majority of people saying they were voting UKIP cited expenses as their main reason. We foolishly did some Euro canvassing in 2009 with John Hemming in tow. It was frankly, quite evil out there at times and most of those who were hostile who expressed an opinion said they would be voting UKIP or BNP. This time, things are calmer, but I am certainly finding some UKIP support, although quite a bit of it will be splitting its vote. Amusingly, Nikki Sinclaire has much more name recognition than Nattrass, but no one has indicated they will be voting for them - just UKIP. The BNP vote seems to have disappeared, so every cloud has a silver lining. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 15:59:51 GMT
No more so than usual. But also remember the boot is on the other foot this time; this will be the first time in 20 years that we have had Euro elections while the Tories were in government. And we will be helped by having simultaneous local elections in London, the metropolitan boroughs and urban unitary councils. This is the other way round from last time in 2009 when it was the Tory shires that had simultaneous local elections but there was nothing else on in the urban areas. I have an inkling that you are right about this and that this time it will be the Conservatives who will have more difficulty with turnout. Its just a higher saliency issue with the right at the end of the day. We care more. Hence winning comfortably in 1999 and 2004. P.S. you have a very strange idea of left and right if you say I am on the left and state socialists aren't. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 11, 2014 16:19:39 GMT
This point cannot be understated. I wasn't involved in the 2009 campaign but I know a very clued up former party activist who was out pretty much every weekend from January onwards and he has always been adamant that the expenses scandal changed everything and that the vast majority of people saying they were voting UKIP cited expenses as their main reason. But UKIP polled the same in 2009 as 2004 - so it wasn't like that level was unprecedented. 2004 had the Kilroy effect, 2009 had expenses. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 16:48:18 GMT
But UKIP polled the same in 2009 as 2004 - so it wasn't like that level was unprecedented. 2004 had the Kilroy effect, 2009 had expenses. If that poll comes true, it will be a unmitigated disaster for UKIP. They have ramped this very strongly. If they get 3rd - I can't see them making any impact nationally in 2015. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 11, 2014 16:58:34 GMT
2004 had the Kilroy effect, 2009 had expenses. Essentially we have no idea quite what will happen until a few weeks (if that?) before the elections... |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 11, 2014 17:28:03 GMT
2004 had the Kilroy effect, 2009 had expenses. Essentially we have no idea quite what will happen until a few weeks (if that?) before the elections... Yes, I would completely agree with that. Most people treat Euro elections as a joke so can easily be swayed into changing their minds. |
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Post by independentukip on Feb 11, 2014 17:37:43 GMT
If that poll comes true, it will be a unmitigated disaster for UKIP. They have ramped this very strongly. If they get 3rd - I can't see them making any impact nationally in 2015. They just don't get the concept of expectation management, do they? UKIP seem to have used expectation management with some success in recent Parliamentary by-elections, and if the Ashcfroft poll has the correct placings, in this one as well (considering the 2010 placing). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 17:42:26 GMT
Labour getting 2 seats in the S.West, with UKIP & LDems only getting one each  In my dreams ...... |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 19, 2014 9:09:08 GMT
Personally I think Labour will win the Euros, but possibly not with 35%... The desire to just register any sort of anti-Cameron vote will be too much for enough Labour supporters to bother turning out for these elections when they haven't bothered in previous Euros.
If UKIP don't beat the Conservatives it will be very hard to build any sort of forward momentum, and I think it will be pretty devastating for many UKIPpers - plus it will slash the incentive for anti-EU Tories to cross over to us.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 19, 2014 9:32:47 GMT
possibly not with 35%? There is no way they will get anywhere near 35%. 30% would be a good result for them and I'd expect them to be somwehere between 25 and 30% which would be enough to 'win'
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 19, 2014 9:34:56 GMT
Personally I think Labour will win the Euros, but possibly not with 35%... The desire to just register any sort of anti-Cameron vote will be too much for enough Labour supporters to bother turning out for these elections when they haven't bothered in previous Euros. If UKIP don't beat the Conservatives it will be very hard to build any sort of forward momentum, and I think it will be pretty devastating for many UKIPpers - plus it will slash the incentive for anti-EU Tories to cross over to us.
Given your own political leanings, would you want a party (even more) full of disaffected anti-EU Tories? |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 19, 2014 9:46:57 GMT
good point... but basically I want UKIP to get the disaffected from across the political spectrum so we can have a balanced but radical centre  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 19, 2014 9:52:12 GMT
good point... but basically I want UKIP to get the disaffected from across the political spectrum so we can have a balanced but radical centre You are Nick Clegg and I claim my £5. |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Feb 19, 2014 10:07:49 GMT
My view is both UKIP and Labour will poll in the region of 25-30%, with the Conservatives closer to 20%.
With an election held under PR, and loads of parties competing, I'd find it hard to envisage any party winning 35%.
I think ICM's weightings tend to result in low scores for parties other than the main three. 20% for UKIP with ICM is therefore an encouraging figure. In 2009, ICM put UKIP on 9/10%.
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In my dreams ......
