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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 18:24:50 GMT
Ukip third and only 3% up on 2009 shows the ceiling they have Tories second Labour on 35%
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Post by Devonian on Feb 10, 2014 18:34:58 GMT
Lab 35%
Con 25%
UKIP 20%
Lib Dem 9%
Green 7%
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 18:37:18 GMT
Should note takes into account certain to vote
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 10, 2014 18:37:27 GMT
Hmmm, UKIP would be disappointed indeed were that the result in May - I remain to be convinced it will happen, though! Maybe a bit high for the LibDems too - even as the regular VI poll shows a more realistic figure than is usual for ICM  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 18:39:35 GMT
If we got 35% would be a major shock
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 10, 2014 18:40:42 GMT
It would certainly be nice. Anything over 30% would be fine, though.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 19:17:04 GMT
indeed but say we got 35% in the Euro's the locals look very positive for us.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 19:29:47 GMT
indeed but say we got 35% in the Euro's the locals look very positive for us. I think this is very unlikely to be the case. The reason being that Europe is a much higher saliency issue for those on the right of the political spectrum and so we get a better turnout than you. I think it will be very hard for labour to top the poll unless it is very close 3 ways. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 10, 2014 20:35:21 GMT
Seats
East Midlands: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1
East of England: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2
London: Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1
North East: Lab 2, UKIP 1
North West; Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1
South East: Con 3, Lab 3, UKIP 2, LDm 1, Grn 1
South West: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1
West Mids: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2
Yorkshire: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 1
Scotland: Lab 3, SNP 2, Con 1
Wales: Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1
Lab 31 (+18), Con 17 (-8), UKIP 12 (-1), LDm 4 (-7), Grn 1 (-1), SNP 2, PC 1 + 3 Norn Iron
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Feb 10, 2014 21:01:38 GMT
While i'd like that to be the case, I struggle to see us getting 3 seats in Scotland.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 10, 2014 22:12:02 GMT
Hmmm, UKIP would be disappointed indeed were that the result in May - I remain to be convinced it will happen, though! Maybe a bit high for the LibDems too - even as the regular VI poll shows a more realistic figure than is usual for ICM I would expect UKIP to get higher than the score in this poll. I've noticed there's a tendency for polls to underestimate UKIP support. The ICM poll in May 2009 for the Euro gave UKIP 10% and they ended up getting over 16% www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/22/icm-poll-european-electionsI noticed as well that there were three by election opinion polls a week before the Eastleigh election and they all had UKIP on 21%, seven points less that their final score. Other by election polls as well as polls before last May's local elections also underestimated the UKIP vote. I'm not sure what causes this but it does seem to be a pattern. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 10, 2014 22:29:15 GMT
While i'd like that to be the case, I struggle to see us getting 3 seats in Scotland. Realistically, all you have to do to achieve that is beat the SNP. |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Feb 10, 2014 22:42:05 GMT
While i'd like that to be the case, I struggle to see us getting 3 seats in Scotland. Realistically, all you have to do to achieve that is beat the SNP. Sounds simple, but their vote is always well motivated to turn out, while ours is traditionally difficult. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 23:15:18 GMT
Realistically, all you have to do to achieve that is beat the SNP. Sounds simple, but their vote is always well motivated to turn out, while ours is traditionally difficult. The ICM EU poll for Scotland a few weeks back had the SNP at 43% and Labour on 24%.. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 10, 2014 23:49:14 GMT
Third place would be devastating for UKIP. Most activists have been convinced for ages that the party will come first so to slip back to third would be considered a total disaster.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 11, 2014 0:06:51 GMT
My flabber would be well and truly ghasted if we got 35% . Suspect that the UKIP percentage is lower than it will turn out. I think a close three way split at the top is the most likely outcome.
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Post by froome on Feb 11, 2014 7:26:34 GMT
Seats East Midlands: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1 East of England: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2 London: Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 North East: Lab 2, UKIP 1 North West; Lab 4, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 South East: Con 3, Lab 3, UKIP 2, LDm 1, Grn 1 South West: Lab 2, Con 2, UKIP 1, LDm 1 West Mids: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2 Yorkshire: Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 1 Scotland: Lab 3, SNP 2, Con 1 Wales: Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1 Lab 31 (+18), Con 17 (-8), UKIP 12 (-1), LDm 4 (-7), Grn 1 (-1), SNP 2, PC 1 + 3 Norn Iron I certainly don't see us losing our London MEP. 2 MEPs nationally is at the bottom of my expectations. I agree with Richard that UKIP coming third would be absolutely demoralising for their activists, and could turn round the progress that the party has been making organisationally and electorally. I also don't think it will happen. Remember that although this is a Euro poll, and is noticeably different in its result from any general election poll, I'm not convinced that all who would have been surveyed would have taken on board the real difference about European elections - that their vote does really count and they don't have to vote tactically - and the strength of feeling amongst different sectors of voters about how they feel about the EU (whether in or out). I suspect the end result will be close between Labour and UKIP, at around but not above 30%, Conservatives a fair way back from these and ourselves and the Lib Dems neck and neck. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 9:41:48 GMT
Is it only me that thinks that labour may have a real problem with turnout?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 9:53:41 GMT
Is it only me that thinks that labour may have a real problem with turnout? . But also remember the boot is on the other foot this time; this will be the first time in 20 years that we have had Euro elections while the Tories were in government. And we will be helped by having simultaneous local elections in London, the metropolitan boroughs and urban unitary councils. This is the other way round from last time in 2009 when it was the Tory shires that had simultaneous local elections but there was nothing else on in the urban areas. Logically speaking London shouldn't help you as it represents the whole region rather than starting a differential turnout effect. Well it might help your national share but would logically not result in any more seats. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2014 10:04:05 GMT
I am looking forward to the NE poll. CC and by-election results would suggest that UKIP is taking as much or more from labour than from the Tory shire areas in the far West and North.
I would certainly consider voting tactically (makes sense with only 3 seats up for grabs) if it looks tight, but seems to close for call between 2nd 3rd and 4th positions.
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