Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2014 10:38:00 GMT
The snips winning run continues.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 31, 2014 10:39:01 GMT
SNP down over 9%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2014 10:56:13 GMT
I was ruminating on this the other evening, but is Salmond becoming an electoral liability?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2014 11:01:50 GMT
Genuinely lost count of how many by-elections that is without a Nat win now - must be about 20?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 31, 2014 11:03:24 GMT
People in the know suggest that's the 19th local authority byelection that the SNP have failed to win since the 2012 full council elections.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2014 11:08:35 GMT
Does the run extend back before then, though?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2014 11:12:20 GMT
People in the know suggest that's the 19th local authority byelection that the SNP have failed to win since the 2012 full council elections. How many local authorities have changed hands? Not that the SNP believe in local government. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2014 11:25:19 GMT
South Lanarkshire has gone from hung to majority Labour as a result of byelections since May 2012.
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Post by falconhoof on Jan 31, 2014 11:31:15 GMT
The Kilmarnock North by election could see a change if Labour win. The SNP/Tory coalition will have 16 seats as will Labour and an Independent, could be down to a cut of the cards.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 31, 2014 11:36:59 GMT
20 local by-elections in a row without an SNP win. scottishelections.org.uk/scotland/lby/The last SNP win was a gain from Labour in Hamilton West and Earnock on 8 December 2011. Of the 20 most recent local by-elections, Labour have won 10 (including 5 gains), Independents have won 7, Conservatives have won 2 (1 gain), and the Borders Party have won 1 (a hold). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2014 11:38:59 GMT
Does the run extend back before then, though? The SNP won six out of 13 council by-elections in 2011 after the Holyrood election: www.scottishelections.org.uk/scotland/lby/Looking at the ones since 2012 though, there were only five where the SNP topped the poll in 2012 but failed to win in the by-election, and three of those were won by independents in areas with a tradition of independent councillors. The other two were highly marginal anyway. I'm not sure that I'd want to read too much into it. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 31, 2014 14:30:05 GMT
It's not that good - it's a swing of about 9% to Labour compared to 2010, when the ward was virtually neck-and-neck. If that's repeated in May, you will lose a bucketload of seats. And in a parliamentary marginal as well. One in which the Tories trailed by something like 15pts in the County elections. They didn't stand in the County division this ward is in last year, but did in the other Heanor division and polled about 23%. For whatever that's worth. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 31, 2014 15:41:17 GMT
Amber Valley, Heanor East - Labour hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 548 | 58.4% | +8.4% | +22.5% | +27.6% | | Conservative | 350 | 37.3% | +11.0% | +4.0% | +4.6% | | Liberal | 41 | 4.4% | -0.3% | -10.8% | from nowhere | | BNP |
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| -19.1% | -15.6% | -36.5% | | Total votes | 939 |
| -549 | -1,955 | -534 |
Swing Labour to Conservative 1.3% since 2012 but Conservative to Labour 9¼% since 2010 Lichfield, Chadsmead - Lib Dem gain from Conservative | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Lib Dem | 206 | 36.0% | +4.8% | +8.2% | -6.4% | -5.4% | | Labour | 157 | 27.4% | -1.6% | -3.0% | +8.6% | +8.5% | | UKIP | 108 | 18.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 102 | 17.8% | -22.0% | -24.0% | -21.0% | -21.9% | | Total votes | 573 |
| -472 | -384 | -388 | -360 |
Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 13½% / 16% since 2011 and 7% / 8% since 2007 Moray, Buckie - | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Independent Cowie | 830 | 44.6% |
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| | Independent MacRea | 220 | 11.8% |
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| | Toal Independents | 1,050 | 56.4% | +8.6% | +13.4% | | SNP | 670 | 36.0% | -9.1% | +3.6% | | Conservative | 143 | 7.7% | +0.6% | -3.1% | | Labour |
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| | -13.8% | | Total votes | 1,863 |
| -657 | -1,804 |
Swing SNP to Independent 8.8% since 2012 and 4.9% since 2007
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2014 16:18:30 GMT
surely in Lichfield the disqualification hurt the Tories a lot and it seems the LD's picked up a few who were anti labour and wanted to defeat us.
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Post by marksenior on Jan 31, 2014 16:22:48 GMT
surely in Lichfield the disqualification hurt the Tories a lot and it seems the LD's picked up a few who were anti labour and wanted to defeat us. I don't think so , you only have to look at the TC by election result in 2012 well before the disqualification to see that it would be a fight between Lib Dem and Labour . |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 31, 2014 17:27:19 GMT
In a ward like that, the LD support is going to be easier to get to the polls than the Labour support, so I suspect the pretty godawful turnout didn't exactly help us.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 31, 2014 17:29:32 GMT
In a ward like that, the LD support is going to be easier to get to the polls than the Labour support, so I suspect the pretty godawful turnout didn't exactly help us.
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