Prediction competition for February 2014

[Philip Davies]

Feb 6, 2014 8:28:41 GMT Philip Davies said:

Conwy - Betws yn Rhos

Caroline EVANS [Independent] 30
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig] 25
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ] 25
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales] 20


Sheffield - Arbourthorne

Jennyfer BARNARD – [Green] 5.5
Mike DRABBLE – [Labour] 63.2
Alan MUNRO – [Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts] 1.5
Susan ROSS – [Liberal Democrat] 6.4
Bob SHERIDAN – [UKIP] 15.3
Peter SMITH – [Conservative] 7.1
David WILDGOOSE – [English Democrats] 1.0


Tendring - Peter Bruff

John CANDLER [Liberal Democrat] 35
Sara RICHARDSON [Conservative Party Candidate] 28
Jon SALISBURY [Labour Party Candidate] 20
Sue SHEARING [UK Independence Party (UKIP)] 17


Tendring - St Johns

Laurie GRAY [UK Independence Party (UKIP)] 23
Norman JACOBS [Labour Party Candidate] 32
Mick SKEELS [The Conservative Party Candidate] 35
Clive UPTON [No description] 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I wonder how many people spotted that the Conservative in Betws yn Rhos was an Independent candidate in 2012? (The one who got 21% of the vote)

[Pete Whitehead]

I did spot that but it didn't help me all that much. Couldn't find out anything about the Independent candidates. Complete stab in the dark there

Feb 6, 2014 4:39:54 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sheffield MBC - Arbourthorne

Lab   57.7%
UKIP 20.2%
Con    7.8%
LD      6.2%
Grn    5.7%
ED     1.3%
TUSC 1.1%


Tendring DC - Peter Bruff

UKIP 32.3%
Con  29.1%
Lab  22.1%
LD    16.5%


Tendring DC - St Johns

UKIP 34.4%
Con  30.7%
Lab   30.7%
ND     4.2%


Conwy CC - Betws Yn Rhos

Con   26.9%
PC     25.6%
Ind E 24.4%
Ind L 23.1%

[Pete Whitehead]

I assume people also spotted that the UKIP councillor candidate in Peter Bruff is the former LD councillor for the ward?

[Robert Waller]

Not the UKIP councillor yet, Pete!

Maybe your wishful thinking will come true in a few hours ...

[andrewteale]

Feb 5, 2014 23:05:16 GMT andrewteale said:

I'm back. Here are my predictions for this week:

PETER BRUFF: Lab 28 C 26 UKIP 26 LD 20
ST JOHNS: Lab 34 C 26 UKIP 24 LD 10 Ind 6
ARBOURTHORNE: Lab 54 UKIP 20 Grn 10 C 6 LD 6 TUSC 3 EDP 1
BETWS YN RHOS: Lloyd 33 PC 28 C 24 Evans 15

Lloyd is a Llanfair TH community councillor; on that basis I think he'll scoop up the Llanfair TH vote in the Betws yn Rhos division.

[Deleted]

Brave predictions on labour winning both Tendring wards.

[Deleted]

I can't see Labour having any hope of winning Peter Bruff ward - St John's, a chance.

[middleenglander]

15 full entries this week plus a cameo appearance in South Yorkshire by JG Harston.

CatholicLeft gets 20 additional faults for being 4 minutes late whilst brianj gets 11 additional faults for a non-existent Lib Dem in Tendring, St Johns and Andrew Teale 10 additional faults for the same misdemeanour.

Conwy - 6 Independent Evans win, Casual Observer, Mike Cooper, Myth11 & Pete Whitehead Conservative win, Andrew Teale, Mark Senior, Robert Waller & tonyotim Independent Lloyd win with Joe a Plaid Cymru win.
Sheffield - 100% Labour hold
Tendring, Peter Bruff - 7 Conservative holds, hempie, Mark Senior & PhilDav Lib Dem gain, brianj, CatholicLeft & Pete Whitehead UKIP gain with Andrew Teale & Myth11 Labour gain
Tendring, St Johns - 9 Conservative holds, Andrew Teale, David Boothroyd & Just Looking Labour gain, brianj, Myth11 & Pete Whitehead UKIP gain

[Deleted]

FFS - need to check my clock.

[Robert Waller]

Tonyotim .... ah, yes.
Part of my fun in this is to 'watch the results come in', of the prediction competition as well as the actual byelections - I suspect other electoral nerds might understand this.
And there I was, congratulating myself for a very rare 'win' in Peter Bruff ward, only to find it snatched away as Tonyotim's predictions were never posted openly - and indeed still are not. It's like having a mysterious undeclared candidate being announced as the winner of an election!
I am inclined to say that if we can't see them, they don't exist. That's not quite like closing ones eyes and wishing the world is not there.

Anyway, is there a chance we can see them before the Welsh result comes out?

[Tony Otim]

Sorry - was away from the computer (at least for none work purposes all day yesterday)

Feb 5, 2014 11:04:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Conwy:

Ind L 31.2
PC 29.5
Con 20.5
Ind E 18.8

Sheffield:
Lab 59.7
UKIP 14.2
Grn 8.1
Con 7.7
LD 7.0
TUSC 2.2
ED 1.1

Tendring - Peter Bruff
Con 34.6
Lab 24.8
UKIP 22.9
LD 17.7

Tendring - St Johns
Con 32.7
Lab 30.1
UKIP 25.8
ND 11.4

[Robert Waller]

Thanks Tony!

[Tony Otim]

I haven't worked it out properly, but at a rough guess I think I may have moved into the lead after doing surprisingly well (ie not absolutely terribly) in Conwy.

[Deleted]

I am now pro-Welsh and Scottish independence. My predictions in Moray and now Conway have been frankly, a total guess and have been way off.

[middleenglander]

Conwy, Betws yn Rhos
tonyotim 29.6 faults, Andrew Teale 29.7, Robert Waller 35.8, Mark Senior 44.3, hempie & Just Looking 36.3+10, Pete Whitehead 46.9+10, Myth11 48.3+10, CatholicLeft 46.3+10+5, Joe 52.0+10, PhilDav 54.3+10, brianj 56.3+10, Mike Cooper 58.0+10, David Boothroyd 64.3+10, Casual Observer 71.7+10

Sheffield, Arbourthorne
Mike Cooper 6.0 faults, hempie 12.9, Pete Whitehead 16.4, Andrew Teale 16.8, David Boothroyd 17.2, Joe 17.5, Myth11 19.7, tonyotim 22.4, PhilDav 23.0, Just Looking 23.5, Casual Observer 24.0, brianj 24.1, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 24.8, CatholicLeft 24.8+5, JG Harston 32.8

Tendring, Peter Bruff
tonyotim 7.9 faults, Robert Waller 12.7, Just Looking 17.0, Casual Observer & Mike Cooper 24.7, Myth11 15.7+10, Joe 26.7, David Boothroyd 28.7, Andrew Teale 24.1+10, Pete Whitehead 24.3+10, hempie 34.7+10, Mark Senior 36.7+10, PhilDav 39.7+10, brianj 50.7+10, CatholicLeft 46.7+10+5

Tendring, St Johns
hempie 9.2 faults, Robert Waller 15.2, PhilDav 18.9, Mark Senior & Mike Cooper 19.2, Joe 23.2, tonyotim 23.5, Casual Observer 24.2, CatholicLeft 25.2+5, Just Looking 25.2+10, Pete Whitehead 29.4+10, Myth11 33.2+10, David Boothroyd 35.2+10, Andrew Teale 26.9+10+10, brianj 40.2+11+10

and for the week

83.4 tonyotim
88.5 Robert Waller
113.1 hempie
117.9 Mike Cooper
122.0 Just Looking

127.5 Andrew Teale
129.4 Joe
134.9 Mark Senior
146.9 Myth11
146.9 Pete Whitehead

154.6 Casual Observer
155.8 PhilDav
165.3 David Boothroyd
183.0 CatholicLeft
212.2 brianj

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.

2 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Tony. I don't think there's enough by-elections left in the month for many of us to close that lead

[Deleted]

I am just shocked that I am so high up the table.

[Deleted]

Richmondshire

Ind 75
Con 25

Birmingham

Lab 43
Con 29
UKIP 22
No Description 3
LD 3

[Deleted]

Richmondshire

Ind 80
Con 20

Birmingham

Lab 50
UKIP 23
Con 21
No Description 3
LD 3