Prediction competition for February 2014

[J.G.Harston]

Arbourthorne (Sheffield City Council) 06-Feb-2014 (Lab died)

Labour  64%
UKIP    12%
Green   10%
Cons     5%
LibDem   4%
TUSC     3%
EngDem   2%

(my first dip in the water, hope I've done this right)

[mikecooper]

Arbourthorne (Sheffield City Council) 06-Feb-2014 (Lab died)

Labour 54%
UKIP 18%
Green 5%
Cons 9%
LibDem 6%
TUSC 5%
EngDem 3%

[mikecooper]

Conwy: Betws yn Rhos 06-Feb-2014
(No Description resigned)

Caroline EVANS [Independent] 19%
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig] 36%
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ] 17%
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales] 28%



Tendring: Peter Bruff 06-Feb-2014
(Conservative died)

John CANDLER [Liberal Democrat] 27%
Sara RICHARDSON [Conservative Party Candidate] 29%
Jon SALISBURY [Labour Party Candidate] 22%
Sue SHEARING [UK Independence Party (UKIP)] 22%



Tendring: St Johns 06-Feb-2014
(Conservative resigned)

Laurie GRAY [UK Independence Party (UKIP)] 26%
Norman JACOBS [Labour Party Candidate] 34%
Mick SKEELS [The Conservative Party Candidate] 37%
Clive UPTON [No description] 3%

[mikecooper]

Monday 10th February
City of London Common Council - Castle Baynard Ward Independent resigned

Emma EDHEM (Independent) 19%
John Michael Allen PETRIE (Independent) 81%

[Tony Otim]

The City of London council elections are unlikely to be included in this contest because the council is, as middleenglander put it, non-partisan.

[middleenglander]

It looks like 9 by-elections during February
* 4 on the 6th
* 2 on the 13th
* 2 on the 20th and
* 1 on the 27th

5 of the contests are in District Councils where the last all-out elections were in 2011
- although one saw a by-election in the same ward just before Christmas
2 are in Metropolitan boroughs with elections in 2012, 2011 and 2010
2 are in Welsh councils with the last all-out elections in 2012

The Conservatives are defending 4 seats, 3 following the death of the former councillor and 1 a resignation
Labour defend 3 seats, 1 after a death and 2 following resignations
Independents defend one seat following a death whilst No Description defend another after a resignation

Conservatives are contesting all 9 seats, Labour and Lib Dems both 6 whilst UKIP contest 4 and Green 2
there are 2 Independents contesting the 1 seat, Plaid Cymru, TUSAC and No Description 2 seats each whilst English Democrats and National Front each contest 1 seat
- a total of 37 candidates, an average of just over 4 per contest although 2 are straight fights.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00am each Thursday.

[Deleted]

Tendring - St. Johns

UKIP 32
Con 34
Lab 30
Ind 4

[Deleted]

Tendring Peter Bruff

UKIP 26
LD 24
Con 31
Lab 19

[Deleted]

Sheffield

Lab 61
UKIP 18
Con 7
LD 5
Green 3.5
TUSC 3
ED 2.5

[Deleted]

Conway - I find it very hard to do Celtic Indy places. The prediction below is based on what the area looks like in google maps!

Con 24
PC 36
Caroline Evans 20
Ifor Lloyd 20

[casualobserver]

Conwy - Betws yn Rhos

Con 39
PC 34
Ind (E) 16
Ind (L) 11



Tendring - Peter Bruff

Con 28
UKIP 26
LD 23
Lab 23



Tendring - St Johns

Con 32.5
Lab 32
UKIP 30.5
Ind 5

I'll also make a provocative prediction for next Monday's by-election, even if it won't be counted in the official prediction competition:
City of London - Castle Baynard

Ind(E) 84
Ind(P) 16

[casualobserver]

missed one:

Sheffield - Artbourthorne


Arbourthorne (Sheffield City Council) 06-Feb-2014 (Lab died)

Lab 63
UKIP 12
Con 8
TUSC 5
Grn 4
EDem 4
LDem 4

[myth11]

Tendring
St Johns

[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]35
[Labour Party Candidate]32
[The Conservative Party Candidate]29
[No description]4

Conwy
Betws yn Rhos

Caroline EVANS [Independent]22
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig]30
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ]23
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales]25

Sheffield
Arbourthorne

 [Green]6
 [Labour]46
 [Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]4
 [Liberal Democrat]10
[UKIP]20
[Conservative] 10
 [English Democrats]4

Tendring
Peter Bruff

 [Liberal Democrat]17.5
 [Conservative Party Candidate]30.7
[Labour Party Candidate]30.8
[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]21

[Robert Waller]

Tendring
St Johns

[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]25
[Labour Party Candidate]33
[The Conservative Party Candidate]37
[No description]5

Conwy
Betws yn Rhos

Caroline EVANS [Independent]28.0
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig]16
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ]28.1
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales]27.9

Sheffield
Arbourthorne

[Green]6
[Labour]64
[Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]3
[Liberal Democrat]3
[UKIP]18
[Conservative] 4
[English Democrats]2

Tendring
Peter Bruff

[Liberal Democrat]18
[Conservative Party Candidate]33
[Labour Party Candidate]24
[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]25

[Deleted]

Tendring
St Johns

[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]30
[Labour Party Candidate]33
[The Conservative Party Candidate]32
[No description]5

Conwy
Betws yn Rhos

Caroline EVANS [Independent]35
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig]10
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ]30
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales]25

Sheffield
Arbourthorne

[Green]5
[Labour]60
[Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]5
[Liberal Democrat]3
[UKIP]22
[Conservative] 4
[English Democrats]1

Tendring
Peter Bruff

[Liberal Democrat]15
[Conservative Party Candidate]31
[Labour Party Candidate]24
[UK Independence Party (UKIP)]30

[marksenior]

Conway Ind L 32 Ind E 26 Con 24 Plaid 18
Sheffield Lab 57 UKIP 14 Green 10 LD 9 Con 6 Eng Dem 2 TUSC 2
Tendring Peter Bruff LD 29 UKIP 26 Con 24 Lab 21
Tendring St Johns Con 36 Lab 33 UKIP 27 Ind 4

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CONWY Betws yn Rhos: Ind Evans 31, C 29, PC 22, Ind Lloyd 18
SHEFFIELD Arbourthorne: Lab 54, UKIP 17, GP 11, C 7, L Dem 7, ED 3, TUSC 1
TENDRING Peter Bruff: C 31, L Dem 27, UKIP 24, Lab 18
TENDRING St Johns: Lab 35, UKIP 33, C 28, No description 4

[brianj]

SHEFFIELD Arbourthorne: Lab 48, UKIP 27, Con 11, Green 5, LibDem 4, TUSC 3, EngDem 2
CONWY Betws yn Rhos: Evans 35, Lloyd 27, Con 21, Plaid 17
TENDRING St John's: UKIP 35, Lab 30, Con 24, LibDem 11
TENDRING Peter Bruff: UKIP 33, LibDem 29, Lab 20, Con 18

[hempie]

Conway,betws yn Rhos: Ind E 31, Ind L 29,Plaid 25, Con 15
Sheffield, Arbourthorne: Lab 57, UKIP 18, Con 8, Green 7, LD 6, Eng Dem 2 TUSC 2
Tendring, Peter Bruff: LD 32, Con 27, UKIP 22,Lab 19
Tendring St Johns: Con 40, Lab 32, UKIP 23, No Desc 5

[Deleted]

SHEFFIELD Arbourthorne: Lab 64, UKIP 15, Con 6, Green 6, LibDem 5, TUSC 2, EngDem 2
CONWY Betws yn Rhos: Evans 37, Lloyd 30, Con 14, Plaid 19
TENDRING St John's: Con 33, Lab 32, UKIP 31, No Des 4
TENDRING Peter Bruff: UKIP 31, LibDem 29, Lab 16, Con 24