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Post by Devonian on Apr 27, 2014 9:47:45 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Apr 27, 2014 11:15:15 GMT
I'm beginning to wonder if, come a nuclear winter, the cockroaches will be minding their own business, assuming that all other life has been extinguished. And then a month later, up pop Fianna Fail. It was always going to be the case that FF would win Euro seats in Midlands-North West and Ireland South sorry to disappoint. Crowley is the longest serving of Ireland's MEP's, well in the ROI, and the most popular hence his rating. Fitzpatrick is still in the running for the third seat in Dublin, we'll seat what the next month brings. The water charges in particular, on top of budgetary issues, is leading to visceral hatred being expressed towards the government parties in many communities and Labour will be wiped outside of Dublin. FG will also have a bad Euro and local elections, sorry tory boys and girls. SF will gain significantly in many areas and will win a Euro seat in each constituency. If you are a credible independent you will do well in these elections hence Childers' showing. It will be interesting to see which one of Ming or Harkin will win out in Midlands North-West. I thought Ming had entered late but it will favour him I think. In Munster I think O'Flynn the Independent could be a dark horse if he gets more media coverage. He is a good speaker and is on an anti-austerity platform and could expect also to benefit from some of Crowley's Cork transfers. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2014 0:15:37 GMT
Very surprised to see Greens polling as well as that in Dublin. I'd sort of assumed that the party had largely collapsed...
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on May 3, 2014 22:44:04 GMT
Very surprised to see Greens polling as well as that in Dublin. I'd sort of assumed that the party had largely collapsed... It largely has and don't expect it improve all that much in the local elections especially as the town councils have been abolished. Eamonn Ryan though is a national figure and party leader who is remembered from the last government. The Greens are throwing the kitchen sink at trying to get him elected as MEP. Irish Observer's comment on the destiny of Fianna Fail to maintain their two Euro seats is a bit odd given recent polling* in Midlands-North West (ugh) and while it's likely that Pat 'the Cope' will hold out on an upset can't be ruled out, especially as there are two strong independents in the race. Crowley was always a massive favourite. Hayes is still likely to win although Dublin is likely to give the strangest and most fractured results**. Most noteworthy thing is that Sinn Fein are in contention for all three seats despite nominating relative nobodies in each of the constituencies. * (EU elections... constituency polls? CAVEAT EMPTOR does not go far enough). ** (Despite Hayes' quasi-thatcherite gobshittery I hope this does indeed happen on the grounds that it will prompt a very likely to be amusing by-election) |
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2014 23:01:15 GMT
Eamonn Ryan though is a national figure and party leader who is remembered from the last government. Is he remembered fondly though? I might have expected him to have a personal anti-vote if anything. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on May 3, 2014 23:20:11 GMT
Eamonn Ryan though is a national figure and party leader who is remembered from the last government. Is he remembered fondly though? I might have expected him to have a personal anti-vote if anything. Difficult to say although he does and did cut a more professional image than most of the rest of the cabinet and Irish politicos (Not difficult admittedly) and didn't quite come off as so much of a smug finger wagger in the way that the then-leader of the Greens and chief apologist for Fianna Fail, John Gormley, did. Furthermore, he's basically now the only public figure the Greens have. Besides the Green Party was pretty much always a Dublin party and always shared a base and vote with the old PDs. In both 2002 and 2007 it won five of its six seats in the capital and were strongest in old middle class suburban towns and 50s-70s developments (not so much in the newer exurbs generally speaking). In 2002 four of the six seats Greens had TDs in also had PD TDs (who had 8 in total). This should tell you something about their 'base' (This is a country where for a while there was such a thing as a Labour-PD swing voter let us not forget). |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2014 10:29:16 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 24, 2014 10:55:33 GMT
Dublin exit poll
Sinn Fein 24
Fine Gael 14
Green 14
Fianna Fail 12
Childners 11
Labour 8
Socialist 7
People Before Profit 6
Counting tomorrow but they are doing tallies today. Early indications seem to confirm SF ahead
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 24, 2014 11:02:39 GMT
That's crushing for Labour. Makes you wonder how bad it'll get beyond the Pale.
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Post by andrea on May 24, 2014 11:10:53 GMT
More exit polls
South
Crowley (FF)26%, Ní Riada (SF)17%, Kelly (FG) 12%, Clune (FG)9%, Harris (FG)7% Hartley (FF)5%, O’Flynn (Ind)5%, O’Sullivan (GP)5%, Prendergast (Lab)5%,Cahill (Ind)3% O’Loughlin (Ind) 2%, Godsil (Ind) 1%, Heaney (CD)1%, Ó Ríordáin (FN)1%, Van De Ven (DDI)1%
Midlands NW
Flanagan (Ind) 20%, McGuinness (FG) 16%, Carthy (SF) 13%, Gallagher (FF) 11% Harkin (Ind) 11%, Byrne (FF) 10%, J Higgins (FG) 7%, L Higgins (Lab) 4%, Mullan (Ind) 4%Dearey (GP) 2%, Fay (Ind) 1%, Gilroy (DDI) 1%, Fitzsimons (Ind) 0%, Níc Fhearraigh (FN) 0%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 24, 2014 17:28:51 GMT
Looks like it will be a very good night for the Shinners, and a dreadful night for Labour. Interesting to see the Greens rebounding, and FF look like, yet again, they are risen from the grave.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 26, 2014 1:28:04 GMT
Shinners top in Dublin.
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Post by markgoodair on May 26, 2014 2:17:27 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on May 26, 2014 15:05:03 GMT
DUBLIN (3)
SF 23.6%
FG 15.5%
FF 12.6%
Grn 12.5%
Ind (Childers) 10.2%
Soc 8.5%
Lab 7.4%
PBP 6.8%
SF / FG / Ind elected
MIDLANDS NORTH WEST (4)
FG 14.2% + 6.2%
Ind (Flanagan) 19.2%
FF 9.2% + 8.6%
SF 17.7%
Ind (Harkin) 10.7%
Ind (Mullen) 5.6%
Lab 4.9%
Looks like FG / Flanagan / FF / SF
SOUTH (4)
FF 27.4% + 4.6%
FG 12.7% + 7.8% + 7.2%
SF 19.1%
Ind (O'Flynn) 4.6%
Lab 4.6%
Grn 4.2%
Could be 2 FF / FG / SF here although they haven't done a good job of balancing their vote.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2014 16:28:45 GMT
FF were no where near taking the final seat in South, it instead goes to FG. Atrocious vote management from FF didn't help their cause but a shocking lack of transfers (less than 15,000 from other parties and independents) is what has really done for them.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2014 16:54:43 GMT
Hilariously it is also just possible that FF could fail to get a seat in Midlands-North West. Gallagher needs 50% transfers from Byrne, who has just been eliminated. He should get it but if he doesn't Harkin (Ind) will take the final seat.
EDIT: What I should have said is that Gallagher needs a minimum of 50% of Byrne's transfers. If Harkin gets 10% of Byrne's transfers Gallagher needs 60%.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2014 17:53:27 GMT
The actual situation here is as follows
Flanagan (IND) - elected
McGuinness (FG) - elected
Carthy (SF) - 127,135
Harkin (IND) - 99,843
Gallagher (FF) - 68,440
Byrne (FF) - 64,057
Flanagan's surplus of 271 has not yet been distributed.
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Post by iainbhx on May 27, 2014 20:21:30 GMT
It's now even closer, there's 2.5k between Gallagher and Harkin with Harkin still in the lead and a 6k SF surplus to distribute (and Flanagan's surplus).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 27, 2014 20:43:11 GMT
Flanagan has tweeted that Pat the Cope Gallagher is asking for a full recount.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2014 23:50:03 GMT
After the distribution of Clarty's surplus it was
Harkin: 106,520
Gallagher: 106,245
Gallagher has asked for a recount which will take place tomorrow. Flanagan's surplus still has not been distributed.
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