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Post by Devonian on Nov 23, 2013 12:55:23 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Nov 23, 2013 20:43:07 GMT
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,459
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 24, 2013 13:10:16 GMT
I have a feeling we might see a fair few independent plague-on-all-your-houses candidatures. And some may win given the electoral system
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on Nov 26, 2013 12:02:36 GMT
I'm pretty sure Marian Harkin will stand again as an independent but she isn't a 'plague on all your houses' candidate just a good MEP who works hard for her area and is a centrist Liberal.
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on Nov 26, 2013 16:56:20 GMT
I'm pretty sure Marian Harkin will stand again as an independent but she isn't a 'plague on all your houses' candidate just a good MEP who works hard for her area and is a centrist Liberal. I'm surprised to see you aren't rooting for your ELDR colleagues in Fianna Fail! ALDE has two of the three seats in the current constituency in Marian and Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher. Long live Irish Liberalism!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 26, 2013 17:37:51 GMT
For the record, last time round the seats won were
FG: 4 (one in each constituency) FF: 3 (missed out in Dublin) Lab:3 (missed out in North West) Soc:1 (Dublin) Ind:1 (North West)
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 26, 2013 17:40:48 GMT
I'm surprised to see you aren't rooting for your ELDR colleagues in Fianna Fail! ALDE has two of the three seats in the current constituency in Marian and Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher. Long live Irish Liberalism! It is incorrect to type 'the Cope' because Pat the Cope Gallagher is his actual name.
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
Posts: 1,420
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Post by tricky on Nov 27, 2013 0:09:23 GMT
ALDE has two of the three seats in the current constituency in Marian and Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher. Long live Irish Liberalism! It is incorrect to type 'the Cope' because Pat the Cope Gallagher is his actual name. Agreed but I thought he put the '' himself?
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Post by erlend on Nov 27, 2013 21:09:36 GMT
Just went to research. His personal wesite is not up so no joy there. The FF page for him has no quote marks.
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Post by irish observer on Nov 28, 2013 0:38:38 GMT
Just went to research. His personal wesite is not up so no joy there. The FF page for him has no quote marks. Several people in places like Donegal have nicknames that they have inherited from their father or grandfather and form part of their christian name. Pat the Cope is his correct christian name. His grandfather was a major figure in founding the co-operative movement in County Donegal and the nickname stuck. I went to a university where approximately 1/5 to 1/4 of the intake were from Donegal. FF have 1 seat in North-West with Gallagher but will need to run a second candidate out of the Meath, Kildare and Laois-Offaly counties. FG have 1 seat which I would give to McGuinness. Kenny does not like Higgins and he will not lose sleep if he loses out. SF have the organisation and enough support for a seat. Doherty polled well the last time. Harkin is a good MEP but will lose out. Does Childers run here? If she does she loses. 1 FG, 1SF and 1 FF. In Ireland South FF have 1 seat with Brian Crowley and could have been competitive for a second with Aylward running. He is now retiring and a convention will pick the second candidate. Rumours favour Seán Connick the former Wexford TD, who like Crowley is also wheelchair bound. FG have 1 seat with Kelly, well connected in the GAA and also related to Kenny. Rumours are Deirdre Clune the Senator may run, too near Kelly I would have thought even though she is in the Barry's tea dynasty. I think it will be a TD from south Leinster but not Simon Harris. They have a good shot at 2 seats on current polling. SF have selected a descendant of Seán O Riada the famous composer to contest but she is not well known other than her surname. They had sought some hurlers unsuccessfully. SF's weakest constituency but they are in the running. Labour's Phil Prendergast was co-opted. She isn't known, especially in Leinster, she was a former Senator before appointment. She is toast. I don't think Childers will run here. 2FG 1FF 1SF. I am basing this on Labour transfers favouring SF more than FF though there is less venom than there was in 2011 and may re-evaluate when candidates are known. Dublin Brian Hayes is supposedly going to run along with former world championship gold medallist Senator Eamon Coughlan. Hayes will fillet him much as I despise the little thatcherite. Murphy was co-opted to Higgins' seat and will not hold because there is not socialist unity comrades. The trots are putting up a candidate to split the vote, a good Cllr Brid Smith who is backed by Boyd Barrett and other TDs. This together with the fall in the Labour vote will allow SF to regain a seat here. Their candidate is unknown, however. She ran in Kerry South in the last general election and got a derisory vote, I assumed she was from Kerry, but she got this nomination because she's shacked up with Eoin O Broin, now a Cllr in Lucan, a former Cllr in Belfast, and one of SF's big brains in the Dáil. Labour's Emer Costello was a co-optee and suffers from name recognition. I think she will lose and will be affected as Childers runs here. She used be a Cllr in Blackrock. Labour might be saved if a Cabinet Minister runs in place of Emer but that'd be a messy by-election if successful. FF will be advantaged by this left debacle in my opinion if we run the right candidate. Forget a former Minister like Hanafin. Instead run a clean cut articulate guy like Tiernan Brady the spokesperson of GLEN, the Gay Lesbian and Equality Network and a friend of mine. He has been a Cllr himself, in the Bundoran area for several years. 1FG 1SF 1FF. I will re-visit in due course now freely knock me down.
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Post by irish observer on Dec 11, 2013 19:43:47 GMT
FF have been in some sort of informal talks with Peter Matthews, the former banker and former Dublin FG TD. He appears a lot on tv and is currently a member of the Reform Alliance. He has said he will run if given a candidacy for Europe in Dublin. FF have said he has a month to decide.
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Post by irish observer on Jan 29, 2014 12:20:59 GMT
At the FF Convention for Dublin at the weekend the members selected Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick, the leader of FF Cllrs on Dublin City Council as their candidate for Europe. Brady was second and Geraldine Feeney, a former Senator and a relic of the Cowen era, came in third. This is actually a strategic choice given her gender and the known public fact about her family's and her own bitter public rivalry with Bertie Ahern in the Dublin Central constituency. Indeed Ahern publicly shafted her in the 2007 General Election contest. Her people have now wrestled control of the organisation in that area from his former followers. In this respect she can project a positive image and is also a sympathetic figure. As I predicted previously Hayes has declared he is running for FG in Dublin. I don't know if he will go alone or with someone. And as I predicted Nessa Childers has also declared for Dublin as an Independent. www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/hayes-to-contest-dublin-constituency-for-fine-gael-1.1671987 The Childers declaration, on top of the split in the far left vote, and the weak Labour co-optee, basically guarantees SF a seat even though their candidate is a non-entity. This fractured vote also assists Fitzpatrick, who is transfer friendly, and who I think will get the last seat as a result. Re Munster I'm not hearing great things about the SF candidate so want to reduce their possibilities of a gain their. In fact that may actually prove Labour's best chance of a hold. Still waiting for news on second FF candidate who can't be discounted either. Connick has been selected to run for Wexford County Council again for New Ross LEA. No news of a strong Independent here as of yet.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 16, 2014 22:40:54 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Feb 18, 2014 21:45:02 GMT
FG are having difficulties getting a candidate from South Leinster. Personally I think a 3 candidate strategy in Munster is too many but what do I know. A lot of their preferred candidates have backed out due to the imposition of this including John Bryan (recently IFA President), John-Paul Phelan from Kilkenny and most recently John Deasy from Waterford. They are now looking at Andrew Doyle and Simon Harris (both Wickla/Wicklow).
Regarding my initial statement wrt Ireland North-West this constituency is a 4 rather than a 3 seater so FG will get 2 seats. FF have 1 and the last is between SF and Harkin. I favour SF though Harkin is a strong contender.
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Post by Devonian on Mar 8, 2014 10:37:20 GMT
FG are having difficulties getting a candidate from South Leinster. Personally I think a 3 candidate strategy in Munster is too many but what do I know. A lot of their preferred candidates have backed out due to the imposition of this including John Bryan (recently IFA President), John-Paul Phelan from Kilkenny and most recently John Deasy from Waterford. They are now looking at Andrew Doyle and Simon Harris (both Wickla/Wicklow). Regarding my initial statement wrt Ireland North-West this constituency is a 4 rather than a 3 seater so FG will get 2 seats. FF have 1 and the last is between SF and Harkin. I favour SF though Harkin is a strong contender. Simon Harris will be the third candidate for the South constituency. The Fine Gael Ard Fheis on March 1st confirmed that their candidate line up for the Euro elections will be Midlands-North-West : Mairead McGuinness MEP, Jim Higgins MEP South : Sean Kelly MEP, Deirdre Clune, Simon Harris Dublin : Brian Hayes
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 21, 2014 19:22:35 GMT
2009 Results. Ireland lost a seat in 2009 and loses a further one this year: Fine Gael | 29.1% | +1.3% | 4seats | -1 | EPP | Fianna Fail | 24.1% | -5.4% | 3 seats | -1 | ALDE | Labour | 13.9% | +3.4% | 3 seats | +2 | S&D | Sinn Fein | 11.2% | +0.1% | 0 seats | -1 | GUE-NGL | M. Harkin (Ind) | 4.6% |
| 1 seat | nc | ALDE | Socialist | 2.7% | +1.4% | 1 seat | +1 | GUE-NGL |
The other lost seat was independant Kathy Sinott. This time round Sinn Fein will almost certainly be back, largely at Labour's expense and the Socialists are unlikely to hold on.
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Post by Devonian on Apr 26, 2014 9:28:29 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2014 9:48:31 GMT
I'm beginning to wonder if, come a nuclear winter, the cockroaches will be minding their own business, assuming that all other life has been extinguished. And then a month later, up pop Fianna Fail.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 26, 2014 15:27:25 GMT
I'm beginning to wonder if, come a nuclear winter, the cockroaches will be minding their own business, assuming that all other life has been extinguished. And then a month later, up pop Fianna Fail. To find that the Healy-Rae's have already had the tarmac laid for the cockroaches.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Apr 27, 2014 2:43:13 GMT
For free, in return for gifts of caps.
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