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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 13, 2013 20:44:49 GMT
ALLERDALE - Seaton (Independent died)
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 5
Alistair GREY (Green Party) 2.5
Mark JENKINSON (UK Independence Party) 33
Andrew LAWSON (Labour Party Candidate) 55.5
Chris SNOWDEN (Liberal Democrat) 4
BOURNEMOUTH - Winton East (Conservative resigned)
Laurence FEAR (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Matthew GILLETT (Liberal Democrats) 10
Mike GOFF (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 31
Sandra HALE (Green Party) 4
Kathleen MORTIMER (Independent) 6
Pat OAKLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 29
CUMBRIA - Seaton (Independent died)
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 4
Robert HARDON (UK Independence Party) 30
Frank HOLLOWELL (Liberal Democrat) 4
Tony NORTH (Independent) 25
Celia TIBBLE (Labour Party Candidate) 37
STOKE-ON-TRENT - Baddeley, Milton and Norton (Independent elected as Labour resigned)
Candi CHETWYND (Labour Party Candidate) 31
Adam COLCLOUGH (Green Party) 1
John DAVIS (Independent) 12
Gary ELSBY (Independent) 5
Tom GROCOCK (Liberal Democrat) 2
Mick HAROLD (UK Independence Party) 16
Anthony MUNDAY (City Independents) 8
Liat NORRIS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1
Sam RICHARDSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Michael WHITE (British National Party) 4
Some stinkers to predict here! Good luck everybody ....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2013 22:30:58 GMT
ALLERDALE - Seaton (Independent died)
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 8
Alistair GREY (Green Party) 10
Mark JENKINSON (UK Independence Party) 30
Andrew LAWSON (Labour Party Candidate) 50
Chris SNOWDEN (Liberal Democrat) 2
BOURNEMOUTH - Winton East (Conservative resigned)
Laurence FEAR (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 15
Matthew GILLETT (Liberal Democrats) 2
Mike GOFF (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 30
Sandra HALE (Green Party) 12
Kathleen MORTIMER (Independent) 16
Pat OAKLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 25
CUMBRIA - Seaton (Independent died)
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 2
Robert HARDON (UK Independence Party) 25
Frank HOLLOWELL (Liberal Democrat) 1
Tony NORTH (Independent) 40
Celia TIBBLE (Labour Party Candidate) 32
STOKE-ON-TRENT - Baddeley, Milton and Norton (Independent elected as Labour resigned)
2011 - Con 1305/1120/895, Lab 1247/1174/960, CommVoice 1124, Ind 830/800/395, BNP 439, UKIP 410, ED 253, LD 235/231/100
Candi CHETWYND (Labour Party Candidate) 45
Adam COLCLOUGH (Green Party) 3
John DAVIS (Independent) 1.5
Gary ELSBY (Independent) 1.5
Tom GROCOCK (Liberal Democrat) 1
Mick HAROLD (UK Independence Party) 18
Anthony MUNDAY (City Independents) 10
Liat NORRIS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 3
Sam RICHARDSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15.5
Michael WHITE (British National Party) 1.5
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Post by marksenior on Nov 14, 2013 8:19:28 GMT
Allerdale Lab 58 UKIP 27 Con 7 Green 4 LD 4
Bournemouth Con 32 Lab 30 LD 13 UKIP 15 Green 6 Ind 4
Cumbria Lab 49 UKIP 23 Ind 20 Con 4 LD 4
Stoke Lab 26 Con 24 City Ind 19 UKIP 13 BNP 6 LD 3 TUSC 3 Ind D 3 Ind E 3
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Nov 14, 2013 8:43:52 GMT
Allerdale, Seaton: Lab 48, UKIP 17, Con 12, Green 12, LD 11
Bournemouth,Winton East: Con 28, Lab 22, LD 21, UKIP 14, Green 9, Ind 6
Cumbria, Seaton: Lab 37, UKIP 25, Ind 20, LD 10, Con 8
Stoke, Baddeley, Milton & Norton: Lab 25, City Ind 21, Con 18,UKIP 12, BNP 6, LD 5, TUSC 2, Ind D 4, Ind E 4, Green 3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,251
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 14, 2013 9:19:13 GMT
Allerdale: Lab 38.1 UKIP 28.6 LD 18.3 Con 7.8 Grn 7.2 Cumbria: Lab 33.7 Ind 25.2 UKIP 22.6 LD 12.3 Con 6.2 Bournemouth: Con 26.4 Lab 24.2 LD 19.4 UKIP 12.1 Grn 11.2 Ind 6.7 Stoke: Lab 25.2 UKIP 20.1 Con 18.8 CI 11.8 INd E 8.1 Ind D 5.6 BNP 4.4 LD 2.6 TUSC 2.2 Grn 1.2 |
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Post by Philip Davies on Nov 14, 2013 10:15:59 GMT
ALLERDALE - Seaton Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 6 Alistair GREY (Green Party) 5 Mark JENKINSON (UK Independence Party) 25 Andrew LAWSON (Labour Party Candidate) 60 Chris SNOWDEN (Liberal Democrat) 4 BOURNEMOUTH - Winton East Laurence FEAR (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20.5 Matthew GILLETT (Liberal Democrats) 14.7 Mike GOFF (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 23.2 Sandra HALE (Green Party) 6.7 Kathleen MORTIMER (Independent) 3.2 Pat OAKLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31.7 CUMBRIA - Seaton Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 6 Robert HARDON (UK Independence Party) 25 Frank HOLLOWELL (Liberal Democrat) 4 Tony NORTH (Independent) 12 Celia TIBBLE (Labour Party Candidate) 53 STOKE-ON-TRENT - Baddeley, Milton and Norton Candi CHETWYND (Labour Party Candidate) 34 Adam COLCLOUGH (Green Party) 1 John DAVIS (Independent) 3 Gary ELSBY (Independent) 12 Tom GROCOCK (Liberal Democrat) 2 Mick HAROLD (UK Independence Party) 18 Anthony MUNDAY (City Independents) 10 Liat NORRIS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1 Sam RICHARDSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15 Michael WHITE (British National Party) 4 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 14, 2013 11:00:35 GMT
Bournemouth UA - Winton East Con 26.3% Lab 24.2% UKIP 19.3% LD 18.8% Grn 9.1% Ind 2.3% Stoke UA - Baddeley, Milton & Norton Lab 32.8% UKIP 23.5% Con 19.5% BNP 7.3% C Ind 7.1% Ind E 4.6% Ind D 1.5% LD 1.5% TUSC 1.2% Grn 1.0% Cumbria CC - Seaton Lab 37.2% UKIP 23.2% Ind 21.6% Con 13.7% LD 4.3% Allerdale DC - Seaton Lab 38.2% UKIP 27.8% Con 23.1% Grn 5.7% LD 5.2% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 14, 2013 11:01:45 GMT
I don't remember a harder collection of by-elections to predict than these four and I stupidly left it until late last evening. Pretty much a stab in the dark in all cases here
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2013 11:07:22 GMT
Bugger it, just discovered that my prediction didn't post.........oh well, I think I would have plunged down the list this week anyway.
ALLERDALE - Seaton
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 6
Alistair GREY (Green Party) 4
Mark JENKINSON (UK Independence Party) 29
Andrew LAWSON (Labour Party Candidate) 57
Chris SNOWDEN (Liberal Democrat) 4
BOURNEMOUTH - Winton East
Laurence FEAR (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 24
Matthew GILLETT (Liberal Democrats) 9
Mike GOFF (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 28
Sandra HALE (Green Party) 3
Kathleen MORTIMER (Independent) 4
Pat OAKLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 32
CUMBRIA - Seaton
Mike DAVIDSON (Conservative Party) 4
Robert HARDON (UK Independence Party) 26
Frank HOLLOWELL (Liberal Democrat) 3
Tony NORTH (Independent) 22
Celia TIBBLE (Labour Party Candidate) 45
STOKE-ON-TRENT - Baddeley, Milton and Norton (Independent elected as Labour resigned)
Candi CHETWYND (Labour Party Candidate) 28
Adam COLCLOUGH (Green Party) 2
John DAVIS (Independent) 8
Gary ELSBY (Independent) 9
Tom GROCOCK (Liberal Democrat) 2
Mick HAROLD (UK Independence Party) 18
Anthony MUNDAY (City Independents) 6
Liat NORRIS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1
Sam RICHARDSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 22
Michael WHITE (British National Party) 4
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 14, 2013 19:03:21 GMT
8 entries this week although CatholicLeft gets 60 additional faults for posting late at 11.07 am whilst electionknight does not reappear.
A large degree of unanimity although plenty of scope for a large swing in faults.
Allerdale: 100% Labour gain from Independent who are not defending the seat
- Labour share ranges from 38.1% to 60%, Conservative from 5% to 23.1%
Bournemouth: 6 Conservative hold with Just Looking and Robert Waller going for a Labour gain
Cumbria: 7 Labour gain from Independent, Just Looking Independent hold
- Labour share ranges from 32% to 53%, Independent 12% to 40%
Stoke-on-Trent: 100% Labour hold with 4 having UKIP second, 3 Conservative and 1 City Independent
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 15, 2013 8:28:03 GMT
Looking very good for Phil again this weekl
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 15, 2013 12:36:58 GMT
Allerdale, Seaton
Just Looking 21.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 28.5, tonyotim 31.4, Robert Waller 33.9, Mark Senior 38.9, hempie 39.4, PhilDav 42.9, CatholicLeft 36.9+15
Bournemouth, Winton East:
PhilDav 22.6 faults, Mark Senior 30.6, Pete Whitehead 32.1, hempie 34.9, tonyotim 41.9, Robert Waller 37.4+10, CatholicLeft 35.4+15, Just Looking 66.6+10
Cumbria, Seaton:
PhilDav 25.9 faults, Mark Senior 33.9, Robert Waller 39.5, hempie 41.6, Pete Whitehead 44.8, CatholicLeft 31.5+15, tonyotim 56.5, Just Looking 65.4
Stoke on Trent, Baddeley, Milton & Norton
hempie 40.7+10 faults, Mark Senior 47.8+10, tonyotim 49.7+10, PhilDav 54.1+10, Robert Waller 63.8+10, Pete whitehead 66.4+10, CatholicLeft 58.0+10+15, Just Looking 75.1+10
and for the week:
PhilDav 155.5, Mark Senior 161.2, hempie 166.6, Pete Whitehead 181.7, tonyotim 189.6, Robert Waller 194.6, CatholicLeft 231.8, Just Looking 248.6
month to date
332.1 PhilDav
381.6 Robert Waller
396.0 tonyotim
406.9 Pete Whitehead
417.2 hempie
418.5 CatholicLeft - would have been 358.5 if only
451.2 Mark Senior
719.0 Just Looking
Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday
5 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,251
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2013 12:52:10 GMT
Congratulations once again to Phil, who is certainly the man to beat at the moment!
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Post by Philip Davies on Nov 15, 2013 13:27:38 GMT
They were four very difficult by-elections to predict with many independents standing or having previously stood. I amused about that my two similar predictions for Seaton ended up being the best and worst predictions. Next weeks set look more interesting and less of a lottery.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2013 14:21:44 GMT
418.5 CatholicLeft - would have been 358.5 if only Bloody, buggering, stupid, flaming thing - why won't it always post?!!!? Oh well, good for the soul I suppose. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2013 14:34:35 GMT
Are you sure Allerdale is right?  ) |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,462
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2013 15:46:30 GMT
Surprised everybody predicted a Labour hold in Stoke given a) the circumstances of this vacancy b) the previous by-election since 2011 and c) its bloody Stoke!!  |
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Nov 19, 2013 23:04:23 GMT
HEREFORDSHIRE - Pontrilas
CON 50 GODDING INDEP 30 IOC 20
KIRKLEES - Golcar
LAB 35 LIBDEM 25 UKIP 15 CON 14 GREEN 11
RUGBY - Hillmorton
CON 32 LAB 28 LIBDEM 16 UKIP 15 GREEN 9
SCARBOROUGH - Eastfield
LAB 30 GERADA IND 18 HUDSPETH IND 17 UKIP 15 GREEN 10 CON 10
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Comberton
LIBDEM 40 CON 28 UKIP 18 LAB 14
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 18:33:20 GMT
Herefordshire:
Con: 44%
Ind: 40%
IOC: 16%
Kirkless:
Lab: 38%
LD: 36%
UKIP: 12%
Con: 8%
Grn: 6%
Rugby:
Lab32%
Con: 32%
UKIP: 17%
LD: 14%
Grn: 5%
Scarborough:
Lab: 36%
UKIP: 31%
Con:12%
Ind G: 9%
Ind M: 7%
Green 5%
South Cambs:
LD: 42%
UKIP: 26%
Con: 23%
Lab: 9%
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 20, 2013 20:46:03 GMT
Herefordshire:
Con: 41%
Ind: 38%
IOC: 21%
Kirkless:
Lab: 34.5%
LD: 35.5%
UKIP: 17%
Con: 8%
Grn: 5%
Rugby:
Lab 33%
Con: 35%
UKIP: 19%
LD: 10%
Grn: 3%
Scarborough:
Lab: 49%
UKIP: 32%
Con: 6%
Ind G: 6%
Ind M: 5%
Green 2%
South Cambs:
LD: 40%
UKIP: 21%
Con: 28%
Lab: 11%
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