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Post by slicesofjim on Nov 8, 2013 22:13:38 GMT
Only noticed a short time ago that Elvis had actually beaten TUSC in one of the Nottingham seats. Ouch! Another non-campaign with no preparation. Another disastrous result. But hey, they're "building TUSC" and "establishing a presence".  By the way, it seems the Harrow First lot have approached TUSC. I'm hoping we send them packing, but apparently it is being considered. |
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Post by erlend on Nov 8, 2013 22:20:41 GMT
I doubt that they are particularly socialist. Just looking for a home.
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Post by erlend on Nov 8, 2013 22:21:31 GMT
And they did put the Tories in in Harrow. That can hardly be a plus for TUSC.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Nov 8, 2013 22:53:36 GMT
Harrow on the Hill ward is rather odd. Half of it is regular Harrow suburbia, the remainder the posh bit on the Hill, private roads, mansions etc. So one would expect the latter half to lean more to the Conservatives, but the Tories have a real issue in that it is a long trek for their voters to the polling station. This fact might suppress their turnout. 'Labour' PDs have much more convenient stations!
Judging by the names of voters who signed the nomination papers, Harrow First made a real push to pick up the hefty Tamil vote in this ward. But you can't win an election in Harrow without sufficient appeal to a broad range of the many minorities that is now Harrow's population.
Labour were aided by help pouring in from all over the place. I hear of one volunteer up from Brighton for the day. Also Glen Hearnden was by all accounts an excellent candidate with a relaxed and likeable doorstep manner.
The Lib Dems do indeed have a problem in Harrow. They have never really recovered from the 2002 nomination paper cock-up. I think Erlend is right and they may retrench into a couple of their better wards, such as Rayners Lane and Harrow Weald.
I think it very unlikely given the current hard line Tory Group leadership that there will be a rapprochement between them and Eileen Kinnear. The reasons for her expulsion from the Tory Group before the 2010 election continue to be shrouded in mystery.
We wait to see what fall-out there is from the allegations of intimidation. Ironically, the alleged offences took place directly opposite Harrow Police Station. Not the best place to try dodgy tactics!
I am very perturbed that the count was delayed to 2pm. Sam Buckley in his book Banana Republic UK? makes a very strong case that votes should be counted without undue delay to minimise the chance of ballot box tampering. I have to agree: to help the transparency of the process Harrow should return to counting on the night.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 9, 2013 0:14:08 GMT
Corby - Kingswood - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 722 | 63.3% | -8.5% | -10.1% | +16.3% | +17.0% | | UKIP | 246 | 21.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 154 | 13.5% | -14.7% | -13.0% | -16.6% | -17.0% | | Lib Dem | 18 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -21.3% | -21.6% | | Total vote | 1,140 |
| -325 | -264 | -367 | -347 |
Swing, although not particularly meaningful, Conservative to Labour some 2% / 3% since 2011 and ~17% since 2007 Durham, Crook - Labour hold | Party | 2013 B votes | 2013 B share | since May "top" | since May "average" | | Labour | 741 | 40.3% | +9.5% | +7.6% | | Independent | 496 | 27.0% | -6.0% | -4.9% | | Wear Valley Ind Group | 360 | 19.6% | -4.4% | -4.1% | | Lib Dem | 145 | 7.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% | | Conservative | 54 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 41 | 2.2% | -3.1% | -2.6% | | Total votes | 1,837 |
| -496 | -250 |
Swing Independent to Labour 6% / 8% since May 2013, first election on there boundaries Harrow, Harrow on the Hill - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Labour | 991 | 38.9% | +4.9% | +4.4% | +10.2% | +11.6% | | Conservative | 836 | 32.8% | +1.7% | -0.3% | -22.1% | -23.5% | | Independent | 308 | 12.1% | -5.7% | -2.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Harrow First | 173 | 6.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 168 | 6.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem | 70 | 2.7% | -14.2% | -15.5% | -13.7% | -13.6% | | Total votes | 2,546 |
| -3,182 | -2,574 | -276 | -97 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 1.6% / 2.4% since 2010 and 16% / 17½% since 2006 Harborough, Bosworth - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | Conservative | 259 | 54.2% | -21.2%
| -8.2% | -3.5% | | Lib Dem | 114 | 23.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +7.1% | | UKIP | 105 | 22.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour |
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| -24.6% | -19.2% | -25.6% | | Independent |
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| -18.4% |
| | Total votes | 478 |
| -557 | -338 | -216
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Swing not meaningful Herefordshire, Tupsley - Its Our County hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Its Our County | 987 | 61.3% | +11.7% | +13.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 347 | 21.5% | +0.7% | -1.0% | -3.2% | -2.2% | | Lib Dem | 277 | 17.2% | -0.7% | +1.0% | -16.6% | -14.9% | | Labour |
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| -11.7% | -13.1% |
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| | Green |
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| -21.4% | -23.4% | | Independent |
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| -20.1% | -20.7% | | Total votes | 1,611 |
| -2,031 | -1,634 | -1,699 | -1,414 |
Swing Conservative to Its Our County 5½% / 7% since 2011, largely Its Our County's increase in share on back of no Labour candidate Nottingham, Dales - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 1,644 | 66.4% | +12.3% | +13.1% | +25.1% | +25.4% | | UKIP | 364 | 14.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 220 | 8.9% | -9.0% | -8.9% | -18.6% | -18.1% | | Green | 99 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -8.0% | -8.5% | | Lib Dem | 78 | 3.1% | -17.8% | -18.4% | -16.1% | -16.4% | | TUSAC | 72 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Elvis |
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| -7.1% | -7.3% |
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| | Total votes | 2,477 |
| -2,065 | -1,918 | -1,492 | -1,918 |
Swing if meaningful Conservative to Labour ~11% since 2011 and 22% since 2007 Nottingham, Radford & Park - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 1,146 | 65.2% | +17.1% | +16.3% | +16.1% | +17.0% | | Conservative | 355 | 20.2% | -6.1% | -6.3% | -12.1% | -13.3% | | UKIP | 123 | 7.0%
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 80 | 4.6% | -9.7% | -10.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Elvis | 31 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 22 | 1.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem |
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| -11.3% | -9.8% | -18.6% | -18.4% | | Total votes | 1,757 |
| -1,813 | -1,691 | -993 | -853 |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~11½% since 2011 and 14% / 15% since 2007 Sefton, Derby - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 903 | 64.7% | -16.4% | -11.1% | -5.4% | +13.2% | | UKIP | 293 | 21.0% | +7.5% | +6.2% | +6.0% | -17.2% | | Independent E | 97 | 7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 48 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent B * | 29 | 2.1% | -0.8% | -1.4% | -2.1% | -3.3% | | Green | 25 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem |
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| -2.5% | -3.9% | -10.7% |
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| -2.0% |
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| -4.9% | | Total votes | 1,395 |
| -836 | -1,337 | -3,436 | -604 |
* understand originally intended to stand as Conservative so share compared with Conservative share in earlier years Swing Labour to UKIP 12% since 2012, 8½% since 2011, ~6% since 2010 but 15% UKIP to Labour since 2008 Spelthorne, Riverside & Laleham - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 895 | 55.3% | -7.3% | -6.1% | -13.1% | -14.4% | | UKIP | 441 | 27.2% | +8.4% | +7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 227 | 14.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +1.1% | +1.6% | | Lib Dem | 56 | 3.5% | -15.2% | -14.9% | -15.2% | -14.4% | | Total votes | 1,619 |
| -1,212 | -1,005 | -424 | -306 |
Swing Conservative to UKIP ~6½% / 8% since 2011 otherwise not particularly meaningful West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 810 | 57.0% | -3.0% | +20.4% | +17.6% | +26.5% | | Conservative | 500 | 35.2% | -4.8% | +0.5% | -12.1% | -14.2% | | Green | 58 | 4.1% | from nowhere | +0.2% | from nowhere | -1.1% | | Lib Dem | 53 | 3.7% | from nowhere | +1.2% | -9.5% | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -22.3% |
| -14.9% | | Total votes | 1,421 | | -189 | -983 | -2,113
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Swing Conservative to Labour ~1% since 2012, 10% since 2011, 15% since 2010 and 20% since 2008 - although Labour did win in 2007 with the swing since then a more modest ~7%
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Post by listener on Nov 11, 2013 21:50:24 GMT
Hereford City Council (Tupsley ward) - It's OUR County (Herefordshire) 1057, Con 300, Lib Dem 273 - IOC hold
Hemsworth Town Council (Kinsley ward) - Lab 170, Independent 76 - Lab gain from Independent - new council: Lab 12, Independent 3
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