Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 7, 2015 10:42:40 GMT
Thoae figures don't look quite right. Are the Lib Dems really polling higher nationally than England and Wales only? I assume that's more to do with rounding in the first case, no? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2015 10:54:27 GMT
Populus has given the LibDems some surprisingly high Scottish scores recently.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2015 11:01:51 GMT
Thoae figures don't look quite right. Are the Lib Dems really polling higher nationally than England and Wales only? 0.1% means not much I think |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452 
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Post by iain on Apr 7, 2015 11:28:01 GMT
The poll has us on 11% in Scotland
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 7, 2015 14:01:05 GMT
Hm. That's two LD tens. Two pretty pollies don't make a summer, but one of the interesting things about this election (among many others) is that if the LDs start to creep up, it makes it even harder for either Lab or Con to achieve a decisive number (say 36 or more).
Still, next poll might give us 5...
Tony
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Post by woollyliberal on Apr 7, 2015 14:13:18 GMT
Hm. That's two LD tens. Two pretty pollies don't make a summer, but one of the interesting things about this election (among many others) is that if the LDs start to creep up, it makes it even harder for either Lab or Con to achieve a decisive number (say 36 or more). Still, next poll might give us 5... Tony 10 is within the usual range for Populus which has only given us 8, 9 or 10 in the last few months. The YouGov 10 on Sunday was outside their usual range. One is an outlier. Two is a coincedence. Three... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 9, 2015 19:45:26 GMT
Ooh, I've just been (phone) polled by Populus. Second time in my life that I've been polled. Expect a Lib Dem uptick!  |
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Post by marksenior on Apr 9, 2015 21:06:06 GMT
Ooh, I've just been (phone) polled by Populus. Second time in my life that I've been polled. Expect a Lib Dem uptick! Apart from numerous Yougovs , in 50 years I have had 1 face to face poll many years ago by NOP ( yep years ago they were done in the street face to face ) and one telephone poll by ICM but that was a post 2010 GE why did you vote that way poll not a VI . |
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 9, 2015 22:14:53 GMT
I have twice been present when a pollster rang up and on both occasions had to do some quick thinking and pretend to be a different person in that household.
Tony Greaves
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 10, 2015 16:15:31 GMT
Today's poll - Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 16 LibDem 8 Green 6. Not much change on the surface, though actually the Tories are "really" down nearly a point - the joys of rounding  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 10, 2015 16:52:31 GMT
The Tories were hoping for "crossover" by now and it just isn't happening. Today's poll - Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 16 LibDem 8 Green 6. Not much change on the surface, though actually the Tories are "really" down nearly a point - the joys of rounding |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 10, 2015 18:16:00 GMT
The Tories were hoping for "crossover" by now and it just isn't happening. Here's a very interesting observation from Steve Fisher. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 13, 2015 15:49:21 GMT
Sky have flashed up a Populus poll showing Tories and Lab tied on 33%.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 13, 2015 17:26:42 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2015 17:30:53 GMT
The Tories were hoping for "crossover" by now and it just isn't happening. Here's a very interesting observation from Steve Fisher. I I dont see any real correlation there tbh. It depends on the individual election. All to play for. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 13, 2015 17:31:15 GMT
The Tories were hoping for "crossover" by now and it just isn't happening. Here's a very interesting observation from Steve Fisher. That graph would look more favourable (from a Conservative point of view) if the Y- axis were labelled Conservative recovery rather than Government recovery. But of course it's relatively meaningless because all general elections are different. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2015 17:51:37 GMT
1983 tories did worse, but a huge landslide year anyway which this year will not be
1987 tories did better
1992 tories did better
1997 tories did better
2001 tories did better
2005 tories did better
2010 no change (cleggmania influenced events)
All in all, not sure that a case agaisnt the tories improving is strong.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 13, 2015 21:19:47 GMT
The rule is really about the governing party, not "Tories".
Polls from the mid 80s until the 2005 GE had a pro-Labour bias (as is now generally accepted) and even then only 1992 really stands out as an exception.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2015 12:37:59 GMT
CON 33 (=)
LAB 34 (+1)
LIB 9 (+1)
UKIP 14 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
The Labour share is a shade over 33.5 so this is more like a 0.5 lead than a full point.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2015 12:39:26 GMT
Populus has tended recently to show Labour doing significantly better before weightings.
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