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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 20, 2015 11:19:24 GMT
Friday's Populus: Labour 32% (-1) Conservative 31% (-) UKIP 17% (+2) Liberal Democrats 9% (-1) Others 12% (+1) That is Labour's lowest poll in this series and UKIP's highest. The tories have equalled their lowest in this series since August 2013 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 20, 2015 11:39:29 GMT
There was a methodology change a few weeks ago, since when Labour haven't scored above 34%. (strange how nearly all these tweaks in polling lower the Labour score, one might think?) Also it is becoming increasingly annoying that Populus won't follow all the other pollsters now (I think) and list the Greens separately  |
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 23, 2015 15:45:39 GMT
Today's Populus
Con 32 (+1)
Lab 32 (=)
LD 9 (=)
UKIP 15 (-2)
Lab equal their lowest score (last Friday) confirming their downward trend over the last few weeks. Con a little below average. LD unchanged. UKIP trend on the up.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 23, 2015 16:04:50 GMT
Apparently 35-29 to Labour before weighting - that is an unusually big adjustment.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 27, 2015 12:33:14 GMT
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 2, 2015 16:11:50 GMT
Con 32
Lab 34
UKIP 14
LD 8
Green 5
Labour 11 polls in a row below their average which is statistically significant, as is UKIP having 10 polls in a row above theirs. Con 6 polls in a row below their average isn't statistically sound yet, but is indicative. Lib Dems 27 polls in a row since they were more than 1 point either side of their average is at odds with YouGov who have them doing fractionally better in Februay than January.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 2, 2015 16:54:31 GMT
You obviously didn't hear me say it first time, so I will repeat it now in capitals - POPULUS CHANGED THEIR METHODOLOGY A MONTH AGO!
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Post by woollyliberal on Mar 3, 2015 7:00:43 GMT
You obviously didn't hear me say it first time, so I will repeat it now in capitals - POPULUS CHANGED THEIR METHODOLOGY A MONTH AGO! I hope you're not offended that I don't read every word you write. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2015 11:12:17 GMT
Really? I look at all posts on this site as a matter of simple courtesy (though will sometimes skim over certain offerings from the "usual suspects")
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 3, 2015 16:36:12 GMT
Really? I look at all posts on this site as a matter of simple courtesy (though will sometimes skim over certain offerings from the "usual suspects") That's a lot of posts to read through. I certainly don't read every thread, let alone every post. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 6, 2015 10:02:39 GMT
6th March 2015
Con 31 (-1)
Lab 33 (-1)
LD 8 (nc)
UKIP 16 (+2)
GN 5 (nc)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 6, 2015 13:25:19 GMT
Really? I look at all posts on this site as a matter of simple courtesy (though will sometimes skim over certain offerings from the "usual suspects") That's a lot of posts to read through. I certainly don't read every thread, let alone every post. Fortunately, I'm a quick reader  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2015 12:46:58 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 9, 2015 12:51:45 GMT
"Absolutely certain to vote" questions almost invariably suggest a GE turnout of about 50%.
There can surely be little doubt now that it is going to be significantly higher than that.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 9, 2015 13:13:04 GMT
Wow! I am over 65, intend to vote UKIP and I live in Scotland.........Nap hand.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 9, 2015 13:32:13 GMT
"Absolutely certain to vote" questions almost invariably suggest a GE turnout of about 50%. There can surely be little doubt now that it is going to be significantly higher than that. With the electorate dropping by 5 to 10,000 in some constituencies you'd expect turnout to reach 70%. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 9, 2015 19:53:09 GMT
"Absolutely certain to vote" questions almost invariably suggest a GE turnout of about 50%. There can surely be little doubt now that it is going to be significantly higher than that. With the electorate dropping by 5 to 10,000 in some constituencies you'd expect turnout to reach 70%. ... and has anyone analysed the party impact of the reduced electorates? |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 9, 2015 20:02:16 GMT
Well, it should tend to assist a party attractive to males and the elderly that is weak in the younger voter demographic?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452
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Post by iain on Mar 9, 2015 20:08:21 GMT
Are men more likely to register?
It probably won't benefit anyone as these people would not have voted anyway.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 9, 2015 22:47:11 GMT
Iain is correct. It will have no meaningful effect as the people removed will have been habitual non-voters and as (it is not polite to say this but it is the truth) short-term efforts to turn habitual non-voters into voters always fail.
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