tim13
Non-Aligned
Posts: 71
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Post by tim13 on Aug 9, 2013 9:06:13 GMT
Yeah I stayed for a while too. No, why do you ask about others' discomfort?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2013 9:18:19 GMT
Yeah I stayed for a while too. No, why do you ask about others' discomfort? Maybe I misread the tone of your message.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 9, 2013 9:42:04 GMT
Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton - Labour hold Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | Labour | 745 | 46.1% | -8.5% | -5.1% | -15.2% | -14.0% | UKIP | 485 | 30.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservatives | 176 | 10.9% | -20.8% | -23.9% | -10.8% | -11.5% | Independent | 170 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.9% | -1.3% | Lib Dems | 40 | 2.5% | -11.3% | -11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | BNP |
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| -5.5% | -5.8% | Total votes | 1,616 |
| -652 | -360 | -1,478 | -1,338 |
Swing not particular meaningful but 6% (top) or 9% (average) Conservative to Labour since 2011 - but small swing Labour to Conservative since 2007 (if figures are accurate)But they were not and officially amended
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 9, 2013 9:42:40 GMT
Labour hold Skelton David Walsh (Lab) 745 Stuart Todd (UKIP) 485 Anne Ferguson (C) 176 James Carrolle (Ind) 170 Rod Waite (L Dem) 40 LABOUR 46.1% UKIP 30.0% CON 10.9% IND 10.5% LIB DEM 2.5%
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Post by anthony on Aug 9, 2013 9:44:18 GMT
Merton, Colliers Wood - Labour hold Swing if meaningful 18% Lib Dems to Labour since 2010, Conservative share little changed Certainly a disappointing result for us (I should know, I was agent). But I also know how much in the way of resources both UKIP and the Tories put in compared to us. The Conservatives must be pretty terrified at the amount of work they had to do to stand still. Whilst UKIP are claiming a great result "from nowhere", in reality they ran as good a campaign as they're going to run anywhere in 2014 in Merton (probably better), and had no impact - in an area with demographics that should favour them. I'm revising down whether any of them will hold on in 2014 . . . certainly don't now think they'll be expanding into new wards.
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Post by marksenior on Aug 9, 2013 9:53:08 GMT
Whitehill TC results
Deadwater LD 123 UKIP 113 Con 80 LD hold Hogmoor Con 121 UKIP 112 LD 103 Ind 71 Con gain from LD Walldown LD 186/170 UKIP 130 Con 117/100 2 x LD hold this was Adam Carew's ward .
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2013 9:57:30 GMT
A fair point by middleenglander re the 2007 Skelton result - it does look strikingly good for Labour!
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Post by marksenior on Aug 9, 2013 10:07:21 GMT
A fair point by middleenglander re the 2007 Skelton result - it does look strikingly good for Labour! The 2007 result was Lab 1897/1752/1676 Con 672/667/642 Ind ( The Harbinsons ) 354/342 BNP 171 and 2003 result Lab 1700/1492/1378 Con 1194/1027/1021
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2013 10:09:28 GMT
Yes, we know. The query was whether that was actually accurate or not.....
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Post by marksenior on Aug 9, 2013 10:17:55 GMT
Yes, we know. The query was whether that was actually accurate or not..... Why should it not be , compare the similar small swing to Labour in Saltburn from 2003 to 2007 and Guisborough where Labour gained a seat from the Conservatives also Brotton where Labour gained 2 seats from the LD's in 2007 . The Redcar wards started to swing heavily from Labour to LD in the by elections in 2008/2009
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tim13
Non-Aligned
Posts: 71
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Post by tim13 on Aug 9, 2013 10:21:53 GMT
I thought you realised Dok B, I am a Lib Dem. My thoughts were confirmed by the Redcar result - another solid 2.5% result. Like you, I have been an electoral geek for many years, but Lib Dem election results over the post 2010 period have probably been the worst I have ever seen, in a number of decades' observation.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 9, 2013 10:29:28 GMT
Objectively speaking, you probably have to go back to the late 1970s. During the poll "crash" of 1987-90 LibDem suppport held up better in actual elections.
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tim13
Non-Aligned
Posts: 71
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Post by tim13 on Aug 9, 2013 10:37:45 GMT
Sorry, veering off thread - it was certainly 1987 - 90 I was thinking of comparing with. The interesting comparison with 1977-9 was that although not technically "in Government with" the less than popular Callaghan Labour Govt, Liberals were seen to be "propping it up" through the Lib - Lab pact. So propping up other Governments is a VERY unpopular activity for Libs and Lib Dems to be involved in.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 9, 2013 11:31:34 GMT
Merton, Colliers Wood - Labour hold Swing if meaningful 18% Lib Dems to Labour since 2010, Conservative share little changed Certainly a disappointing result for us (I should know, I was agent). But I also know how much in the way of resources both UKIP and the Tories put in compared to us. The Conservatives must be pretty terrified at the amount of work they had to do to stand still. Whilst UKIP are claiming a great result "from nowhere", in reality they ran as good a campaign as they're going to run anywhere in 2014 in Merton (probably better), and had no impact - in an area with demographics that should favour them. I'm revising down whether any of them will hold on in 2014 . . . certainly don't now think they'll be expanding into new wards. I was thinking that you might benefit somewhat from the absence of a Green candidate, but that vote all seems to have gone Labour or stayed at home.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 9, 2013 11:33:24 GMT
Merton, Colliers Wood - Labour hold Swing if meaningful 18% Lib Dems to Labour since 2010, Conservative share little changed Certainly a disappointing result for us (I should know, I was agent). But I also know how much in the way of resources both UKIP and the Tories put in compared to us. The Conservatives must be pretty terrified at the amount of work they had to do to stand still. Whilst UKIP are claiming a great result "from nowhere", in reality they ran as good a campaign as they're going to run anywhere in 2014 in Merton (probably better), and had no impact - in an area with demographics that should favour them. I'm revising down whether any of them will hold on in 2014 . . . certainly don't now think they'll be expanding into new wards. How exactly should the demographics of Collier's Wood favour us? I can think of few less favourable type of areas and the only reason I predicted as high a UKIP share as I did was because the name of the candidate suggested they may have some resonance with elements of the local population which the party would not normally appeal to. Apart from the ethnic composition of the area (which makes I far less favourable than some other Merton wards such as Lower Morden or St Helier) this is an area where the Green party have often posted very good results. There are a few exceptions in parts of East Anglia for example, but on the whole support for UKIP in an area is in inverse proportion to support for the Green party, as you would expect given the very different nature of the parties typical supporters
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Post by anthony on Aug 9, 2013 12:40:33 GMT
How exactly should the demographics of Collier's Wood favour us? I can think of few less favourable type of areas and the only reason I predicted as high a UKIP share as I did was because the name of the candidate suggested they may have some resonance with elements of the local population which the party would not normally appeal to. Apart from the ethnic composition of the area (which makes I far less favourable than some other Merton wards such as Lower Morden or St Helier) this is an area where the Green party have often posted very good results. There are a few exceptions in parts of East Anglia for example, but on the whole support for UKIP in an area is in inverse proportion to support for the Green party, as you would expect given the very different nature of the parties typical supporters It depends why you think the Green Party used to poll well in Colliers Wood? My personal view is that it was a largely anti-establishment and anti-Labour vote in the absence of anything much organised by any of the other parties, who typically don't really campaign in Colliers Wood. On that basis, there's potentially a large overlap between those who voted Green Party in 2006 and those who might vote UKIP in 2013.
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Post by anthony on Aug 9, 2013 12:55:43 GMT
I was thinking that you might benefit somewhat from the absence of a Green candidate, but that vote all seems to have gone Labour or stayed at home. The last minute gotv message from Labour was quite good, if not entirely true: that people needed to elect a Labour councillor to stop the council going Tory. That might have been true if six of the Tories hadn't defected. This coupled with an anti-Govt backlash meant Labour did very well, and effectively squeezed.
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Post by marksenior on Aug 9, 2013 13:08:28 GMT
The Hessle results Eastfield LD 368 Lab 137 Northfield LD 449 Lab 187
Both LD gains from Labour
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 9, 2013 17:33:42 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 9, 2013 17:54:21 GMT
Merton, Colliers Wood - Labour hold Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | Labour | 1,685 | 72.2% | +21.1% | +21.2% | +24.5% | +24.3% | Conservative | 441 | 18.9% | -0.7% | -0.9% | +7.8% | +7.9% | UKIP | 157 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Lib Dems | 52 | 2.2% | -15.1% | -14.0% | -5.1% | -5.4% | Green |
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| -12.1% | -13.1% | -34.0% | -33.5% | Total votes | 2,335 |
| -2,784 | -2,402 | -1,260 | -1,088 |
Swing if meaningful 18% Lib Dems to Labour since 2010, Conservative share little changed Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton - Labour hold (2007 figures for Labour amended) Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | Labour | 745 | 46.1% | -8.5% | -5.1% | -4.5% | -2.2% | UKIP | 485 | 30.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservatives | 176 | 10.9% | -20.8% | -23.9% | -16.9% | -18.0% | Independent | 170 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.1% | -4.7% | Lib Dems | 40 | 2.5% | -11.3% | -11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | BNP |
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| -7.1% | -7.5% | Total votes | 1,616 |
| -652 | -360 | - 806 | -666 |
Swing not particular meaningful but some 6% (top) or 9% (average) Conservative to Labour since both 2011 and 2007 Swindon, Haydon Wick - Conservative hold Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 * | Conservative | 1,376 | 49.6% | +6.0% | +7.1% | -11.4% | Labour | 887 | 32.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +12.3% | UKIP | 426 | 15.4% | +4.7% | +4.1% | +4.4% | Lib Dem | 83 | 3.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -5.3% | Green |
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| -8.3% | -8.7% |
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| -415 | -249 | +537 |
* same ward name Swing 2.6% / 3% Labour to Conservatives since 2012 Waveney, Oulton - Labour hold Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2010 | since 2007 | Labour | 450 | 41.2% | +11.5% | +12.4% | +4.3% | +15.9% | Conservatives | 329 | 30.1% | +2.1% | +3.7% | -11.9% | +5.4% | UKIP | 269 | 24.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | +15.7% | Green | 23 | 2.1% | -4.8% | -5.2% | -3.0% | -0.5% | Lib Dems | 21 | 1.9% | -4.3% | -4.6% | -14.0% | -3.9% | Independent |
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| -29.1% | -30.8% |
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| -598 | -506 | -1,081 | -104 |
Swing 4.7% Conservative to Labour since 2011 and 8.1% since 2010
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