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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 20:26:01 GMT
So we have a tie in Brighton between the mangos and the watermelons. I've just peeled a ripe mango, which though it started out Green, has now turned mostly red. It is however, still entirely yellow inside. Confusing. A very good result for Labour, regardless of the fruit politics involved. Definitely, but Caroline Lucas will remain... hopefully long after this council has faded from memory. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 12, 2013 20:50:19 GMT
Does anyone else get the Scottish Elections blog if they click 'blog' at the top of Kris' Welsh Elections site? Whoops... fixed now.  |
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 4:48:28 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 5:37:44 GMT
I've just peeled a ripe mango, which though it started out Green, has now turned mostly red. It is however, still entirely yellow inside. Confusing. A very good result for Labour, regardless of the fruit politics involved. Definitely, but Caroline Lucas will remain... hopefully long after this council has faded from memory. One thing I noticed reviewing all this is that I haven't seen a single instance of a Green party member (or indeed anyone else) defending the Green council. You've criticised the council in this thread. Caroline Lucas, the Brighton branch of the Green Party, nearly half the Brighton Green councillors as well as various Green bloggers, including the 'Scrapperduncan' and 'Notesbrokensociety' blogs have all strongly criticised Jason Kitcat and the Green administration. I notice that even those Greens who don't criticise Kitcat and the administration make no attempt to defend it. This is not only noticeably true of jamesdoyle's posts earlier in the thread but is also even true of the Green Party leadership. During the Cityclean dispute Natalie Bennett and the GPEW leadership sat on the fence and wouldn't take sides. I haven't read a single comment by a Green party member, either here or anywhere else, actually defend the record or the leadership of the Green party's only council. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 8:17:54 GMT
You really are quite intent on this, aren't you? I haven't bothered defending the council administration record on here because there's not a great deal of point: denizens of this place don't have votes in Brighton, and b) everyone here (including you, despite your professed non-alignment) has fairly entrenched views on which parties they do and don't like, so I'd be preaching to the converted and the unconvertible.
Over the past few weeks I have done my bit defending the Brighton Green council group where it matters and on areas where I believe they're right; and in private I've put forward my views on where they could do things better.
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 12:36:56 GMT
You really are quite intent on this, aren't you? I haven't bothered defending the council administration record on here because there's not a great deal of point: denizens of this place don't have votes in Brighton, and b) everyone here (including you, despite your professed non-alignment) has fairly entrenched views on which parties they do and don't like, so I'd be preaching to the converted and the unconvertible. Possibly I've read too much into the fact that you haven't defended the council here and I apologise if you were offended by that. The fact remains that the only other Green to comment on this thread has criticised the council as have all those others I mentioned. I have also noticed a lack of other Greens coming to Jason Kitcat's defence either here or elsewhere. Even you are giving some criticism of the council here although you phrase it in a way that is commendably loyal. |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2013 15:53:02 GMT
I was in Brighton on Friday at a family gathering . As far as the council goes the Greens are toast . Justified or not they are getting the blame for things they that are not really their fault as well as things that are . My ( non political ) son for example was quite scathing of them for the council filling in the holes of Rottingdean Pitch and Putt course with concrete .
As far as Caroline Lucas goes she will be toast too in 2015 . The students who vote in 2015 will not be those who voted for her in 2010 . As I have posted before my daughter and son in law who voted for her in 2010 would not do so again though as they now live in Kemptown not Pavilion that is just 2 votes lost but not switched in Pavilion .
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 13, 2013 16:49:51 GMT
I was in Brighton on Friday at a family gathering . As far as the council goes the Greens are toast . Justified or not they are getting the blame for things they that are not really their fault as well as things that are . My ( non political ) son for example was quite scathing of them for the council filling in the holes of Rottingdean Pitch and Putt course with concrete . As far as Caroline Lucas goes she will be toast too in 2015 . The students who vote in 2015 will not be those who voted for her in 2010 . As I have posted before my daughter and son in law who voted for her in 2010 would not do so again though as they now live in Kemptown not Pavilion that is just 2 votes lost but not switched in Pavilion . Sounds like a very un-Green thing to do and makes playing golf quite hard. |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2013 17:00:07 GMT
It is a long story which you can google . The council had been leasing this and another pitch and putt course to a company for many years . Late last year that company only renewed the lease on the other course . The Rottingdean locals continued to play on the now closed course for free and at that stage ( for reasons only partly explained ) the council filled the holes with concrete . I doubt whether any councillor Green or otherwise had a hand in the decision but as is often the case they are getting the blame .
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 17:47:26 GMT
You really are quite intent on this, aren't you? I haven't bothered defending the council administration record on here because there's not a great deal of point: denizens of this place don't have votes in Brighton, and b) everyone here (including you, despite your professed non-alignment) has fairly entrenched views on which parties they do and don't like, so I'd be preaching to the converted and the unconvertible. Possibly I've read too much into the fact that you haven't defended the council here and I apologise if you were offended by that. The fact remains that the only other Green to comment on this thread has criticised the council as have all those others I mentioned. I have also noticed a lack of other Greens coming to Jason Kitcat's defence either here or elsewhere. Even you are giving some criticism of the council here although you phrase it in a way that is commendably loyal. No, not offended, don't worry  I was just intrigued by your intensity of posting on this by election. I think you're probably reading too much into the lack of comments from Greens on here; we have a high concentration of Scottish Greens, and those who aren't from Scotland are far enough away not to have too much knowledge of the ins and outs: I'm the only South East Green on here, AFAIK, and even I don't know all the background. As I say, I just don't see much value in spending a lot of time justifying/defending the Brighton council Green group on here - the audience aren't likely to be swayed much by my words! I don't think the Greens in Brighton are perfect, but I think that every council group of every colour falls short of perfection, and some fall much shorter than the Greens. Of course, if I started being critical of them on here I suspect my words would get recycled into other publications quite quickly (I note the Tories in Worthing are leaning quite heavily on the Brighton bin strike in their latest leaflet). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 17:52:47 GMT
I know enough about what's been going on in Brighton thanks, but with the exception of the bin-strike I'd say they've been largely pretty competent.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2013 17:58:15 GMT
I know enough about what's been going on in Brighton thanks, but with the exception of the bin-strike I'd say they've been largely pretty competent. It does not matter whether they have been largely competent or incompetent , they have completely lost the trust of voters who have been sympathetic to voting for them before and will not do so again . |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 18:02:21 GMT
I know enough about what's been going on in Brighton thanks, but with the exception of the bin-strike I'd say they've been largely pretty competent. It does not matter whether they have been largely competent or incompetent , they have completely lost the trust of voters who have been sympathetic to voting for them before and will not do so again . The council is almost definitely gone come 2015, but I don't share your pessimism re: Caroline Lucas, but we're probably not going to reach agreement here. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 18:29:54 GMT
I know enough about what's been going on in Brighton thanks, but with the exception of the bin-strike I'd say they've been largely pretty competent. It does not matter whether they have been largely competent or incompetent , they have completely lost the trust of voters who have been sympathetic to voting for them before and will not do so again . That's a bit hyperbolic, Mark. Some voters will have decided not to vote Green again, some will withhold their vote temporarily, but a lot have stuck, and will stick, with the Greens. It's the same for any party running a council, or indeed a government  |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2013 18:37:43 GMT
It does not matter whether they have been largely competent or incompetent , they have completely lost the trust of voters who have been sympathetic to voting for them before and will not do so again . That's a bit hyperbolic, Mark. Some voters will have decided not to vote Green again, some will withhold their vote temporarily, but a lot have stuck, and will stick, with the Greens. It's the same for any party running a council, or indeed a government Of course not everyone will take the same view . The Green's and Caroline Lucas' problem in Brighton is the substantial turnover in the electorate which is way above the national average particularly in the wards which have voted Green in the recent past . It is not just the turnover in student voters but also the nature of much of the property being rented with a short turnover . I would estimate that by 2015 around 40% of those who voted for Caroline Lucas will have moved on , a much higher proportion of those who voted Conservative or Labour in the more sedentary wards . |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 18:42:10 GMT
There is a high level of HMOs in H&EG, certainly (I don't know about the other Green areas, as I haven't canvassed them); but the turnout from those HMOs, as every such area, is pretty woeful. The Green vote in H&EG is based on the stable voters,I can assure you.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2013 18:56:04 GMT
The relatively stable wards in terms of residency are Patcham , Withdean , Hollingdean/Stanmer and much of Preston Park . Of course even the central wards have some pockets of stability . It may have changed now but the houses immediately adjacent to the west of Brighton Station Terminus Place etc were always (contrary to the rest of the area) solidly Labour as they were occupied by former employees at the old Brighton Railway works
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 13, 2013 21:48:18 GMT
Brighton & Hove, Hanover & Elm Grove - Labour gain from Green | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 1,396 | 39.8% | +8.8% | +8.0% | +9.2% | +11.7% | | Green | 1,358 | 38.7% | -14.6% | -14.4% | -11.8% | -14.4% | | Conservative | 275 | 7.8% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -3.3% | -3.7% | | UKIP | 250 | 7.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 172 | 4.9% | +2.0% | -1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 56 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -1.6% | -6.1% | -5.6% | | Total votes | 3,507 | | -1,860 | -1,658 | -801 | -402 |
Swing Greens to Labour 11.7% on "top" basis and 11.2% on average basis since 2011 and 10½% / 13% since 2007 Conwy, Caenhun - Independent regains seat lost to Conservative in 2012 | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2008 | since 2004 | | Independent | 321 | 42.1% | +2.2% | -20.9% | -32.2% | | Conservative | 170 | 22.3% | -18.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Plaid Cymru | 162 | 21.3% | +1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 109 | 14.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -11.4% | | Lib Dems | | | | -37.0% | | | Total votes | 762 | | -104 | -19 | -147 |
Swing (if meaningful) 10% Conservative to Independent since 2012 Forest Heath, Exning - Independent / No Description gain from Lib Dems who did not defend the seat | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | No Description | 263 | 64.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 147 | 35.9% | -8.0% | -15.2% | -27.4% | | Lib Dems | | | -56.1% | -48.9% | | | Labour | | | | | -36.7% | | Total votes | 410 | | -253 | -85 | +9 |
Swing not meaningful North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham - No Description / Independent hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | No Description | 140 | 43.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 57 | 17.7% | -47.2% | -46.1% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 48 | 14.9% | -20.2% | -10.4% | -10.7% | | UKIP | 48 | 14.9% | from nowhere | +4.0% | from nowhere | | Labour | 29 | 9.0% | from nowhere | | -50.2% | | Lib Dems | | | | | -15.2% | | Total votes | 322 | | -402 | -263 | -225 |
Note the retiring Independent councillor was elected as Labour in 2003 The combined share of the No Description & Independent was 61.2% - this compares to the Independent share of 64.9% in 2011 and 63.8% in 2007 Swing not meaningful
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 22:52:04 GMT
No, not offended, don't worry I was just intrigued by your intensity of posting on this by election. I suppose I'm someone who is intrigued by the details of parties that are a little outside the mainstream. After all the internal politics of Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dem are all over the main newspapers whereas other groups are not and you have to look a bit more to find out about them. For example I started the thread on the Gibraltar by election thread. I didn't know anything about Gibraltar party politics when I started the thread, it doesn't get reported on in the main UK newspapers, now I have learned about it and I find that kind of thing interesting. I've posted on this by election as it is clearly the Green Party's most important election of the year and one whose result has potential implications for the Green Party's political future both internal and externally. I have to say its quite unfortunate for the Greens that this has happened. As you say other councils have has worse problems but the difference is that when its a Labour of Tory council its just one council amongst many so it doesn't reflect so much on the wider party. With the Greens you just have the one council so it magnifies all their problems. Its especially cheeky of the Conservative Party to bring up the bin strike as it was Brighton Conservatives who backed the Green plan to leave pay negotiations to council officers. A Conservative led council would probably had exactly the same bin strike but I guess that's politics for you. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 15, 2013 14:17:06 GMT
That's a bit hyperbolic, Mark. Some voters will have decided not to vote Green again, some will withhold their vote temporarily, but a lot have stuck, and will stick, with the Greens. It's the same for any party running a council, or indeed a government Of course not everyone will take the same view . The Green's and Caroline Lucas' problem in Brighton is the substantial turnover in the electorate which is way above the national average particularly in the wards which have voted Green in the recent past . It is not just the turnover in student voters but also the nature of much of the property being rented with a short turnover . I would estimate that by 2015 around 40% of those who voted for Caroline Lucas will have moved on , a much higher proportion of those who voted Conservative or Labour in the more sedentary wards . I'm not sure I agree that this matters. I don't know Brighton well, but Cambridge has a similarly high turnover of voters. Firstly, though Green voters may be more likely to depart, I'm not sure the difference will be as high as you suggest - areas bordering high turnover areas also see their turnover rise, especially where rental prices are high. Secondly, as James has mentioned, turnout amongst high turnover voters is woeful (although that's less true at general elections.) Thirdly, parties who are vulnerable to this turnover are normally well aware of it. Where they're successful, it's because they operate at a much higher level of background activism than in more sedentary areas, and hence are more likely to identify new supporters to make up for the ones they lose. |
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I was just intrigued by your intensity of posting on this by election.
