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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 18, 2013 20:53:50 GMT
BRIGHTON AND HOVE - Hanover and Elmgrove (Green resigned)
2011 - Grn 2861/2800/2576, Lab 1662/1661/1606, Con 499/441/434, LD 189/159/140, TUSC 156
2007 - Grn 2182/2102/1945, Lab 1321/1030/945, Con 482/459/411, LD 333/260/256
2003 - Grn 2198/1895/1382, Lab 1886/1722/1510, LD 517/460/450, Con 489/466/455, SocAll 266
Phil CLARKE (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
Emma DANIEL (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate)
Lev EAKINS (Liberal Democrats)
David GIBSON (Green Party)
Robert KNIGHT (Conservative Party Candidate)
Patricia MOUNTAIN (UKIP)
CONWY - Caerhun (Conservative resigned)
2012 - Con 352, Ind 346, PC 168
2008 - Ind 492, LD 289
2004 - Ind 675, Lab 234
Neil BRADSHAW (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru)
Goronwy EDWARDS (Annibynnol / Independent)
Pered MORRIS (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales)
Sian PEAKE-JONES (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
NORTH KESTEVEN - Sleaford Holdingham (Independent resigned)
2011 - Ind 470, Con 254
2007 - Ind 373, Con 148, UKIP 64
2003 - Lab 324, Con 140, LD 83
Mike BENTHALL (Labour Party Candidate)
John DILKS (UK Independence Party)
Ken FERNANDES (Independent)
Lucille HAGUES (Conservative & Unionist Party)
Grenville JACKSON
I wonder if the UKIP candidate is any relation to our old friend "Fair Deal" Phil? Unusual choice of description for the Conservatives as well - at least in England.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 18, 2013 22:38:33 GMT
Well, he (John Dilks) has exactly the same name as Labour's candidate in the 1973 Lincoln by election won by Dick Taverne for "Democratic Labour".
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 18, 2013 22:44:28 GMT
Not the same man though. Our Sleaford candidate is John Michael Dilks, born 1969; the former Derby City Council leader and Lincoln byelection candidate had no middle name and was born in 1933.
(If still alive, he will be celebrating his 80th birthday this month)
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 18, 2013 22:54:38 GMT
I didn't really think it would be the same guy after all this time.... but I suppose that given he was selected by Labour in Lincoln to oppose Taverne he would have been fairly anti Common Market too! He beat David Winnick (among others) in the selection.
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Post by David Ashforth on Jun 19, 2013 8:13:46 GMT
| Ward maps | ONS data | | BRIGHTON & HOVE - Hanover & Elmgrove | link | link | | CONWY - Caerhun | link | link | | NORTH KESTEVEN - Sleaford Holdingham | link | link |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2013 16:12:33 GMT
Sleaford-Holdingham should be interesting as the sitting Independent had originally been elected as a Labour councillor and he has not been opposed by Labour whilst defending his seat. In the County division (larger than this ward, of course) Mr Dilks edged Mr Benthall to take third place, Mr Fernandes was bottom. It's going to be fun to predict this.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 6, 2013 8:44:26 GMT
Additional by election on this day
Forest Heath DC Exning ward Lib Dem seat reason for by election not known
2011 LD 372 Con 291
2007 Con 253 LD 242
Candidates
Simon Cole Independent ( stood as an Independent in May for the Exning and Newmarket CC division )
Marion Fairman-Smith Conservative ( was DC for the ward 2007-2011 but did not stand in 2011 )
A very strange by election
LD seat but no candidate
UKIP won the CC division in May but no candidate
Conservatives stand a former DC who gave up the seat in 2011
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Post by erlend on Jul 6, 2013 8:52:27 GMT
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 6, 2013 11:38:37 GMT
Maybe UKIP were relying on the same by-election list as us, and didn't know about it until now? (I'm sure I once saw the exact list that middleenglander posts here on UKIP's website.)
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Post by obscurityknocks on Jul 6, 2013 11:44:02 GMT
Hannover and Elmgrove will be a big test for the Green minority administration in Brighton. I think it could end up being close to call, but I think the Greens may just hold on, only just mind you. A real battle between them and Labour and may prove to be a vote of confidence on the council.
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Post by Devonian on Jul 6, 2013 22:58:03 GMT
Hannover and Elmgrove will be a big test for the Green minority administration in Brighton. I think it could end up being close to call, but I think the Greens may just hold on, only just mind you. A real battle between them and Labour and may prove to be a vote of confidence on the council. I think that the result of this election will be quite important for the Green Party's internal politics. It should be a safe Green hold, as the figures above show the ward has been Green for some time and they had a big majority last time. However the Green council has lost a lot of popularity due the the recent bin strike fiasco as well as other issues. The crucial point for the Green Party's internal politics if the divide between the left wing 'watermelons' (green on the outside socialist on the inside) and the 'mangos' (green on the outside liberal on the inside). The mango leader of the Green administration, former Lib Dem Jason Kitkat, has been massively criticised for his handling of the strike and other issues by a number of watermelons including several Brighton Green councillors. Watermelon Green MP Caroline Lucas clearly and openly stated she was supporting the bin stike against the Green administration. The mango leadership of the GPEW however did everything to avoid discussing the whole thing with Natelie Bennett in particular very carefully ensuring she made absolutely no public mention of the issue. The strike now appears to be resolved (although not because of Kitkat) and no big bust up occurred within the Green party despite the grumblings. Now the candidate for Hanover and Elmgrove is a watermelon, hoping to take the seat of the mango who resigned. If he keeps the seat, and he should given the size of their majority last time, then I'm sure the watermelons will carry on grumbling and not doing much about it. If he looses however then the watermelons are going to feel that they have been punished for mango Kitkat's mistakes. They might also feel that Caroline Lucas' seat is at greater risk in 2015. That I think might result in much greater discontent with the present GPEW leadership. (Note: I'm not a memeber of GPEW so I'm just basing this analysis on what I've read in newspapers and blogs, am happy to be corrected on anything I've got wrong here.) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2013 23:09:05 GMT
AIUI, if David Gibson wins the by-election, the Brighton & Hove Green council group goes from a mango majority of 1 to a watermelon majority of 1. Should be fun. Having said that, as a mango myself, I've found the leftier Greens friendly, helpful and supportive. I suspect that the labels are used to justify opposing someone after the fact, rather than causing the problem.
I'll also say that my canvassing participation over the past few weeks tells me that Caroline is in absolutely no danger at all in 2015: voters who loathe the council are very keen to say they support her.
Sent from my Dell Streak using proboards
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2013 10:02:37 GMT
Getting my predictions in early as I have a visitor for the next couple of days.
Brighton and Hove, Hanover and Elmgrove:
Greens:43%
Labour:36%
UKIP:8%
Conservative:6%
TUSC:4%
Liberal Democrat:3%
Conwy, Caerhun:
Independent:36%
Conservative:30%
Plaid Cymru:19%
Labour:15%
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham:
Labour:24%
Conservative:22%
UKIP:18%
Edwards:27%
Independent:9%
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Post by marksenior on Jul 10, 2013 10:34:44 GMT
Getting my predictions in early as I have a visitor for the next couple of days. Brighton and Hove, Hanover and Elmgrove: Greens:43% Labour:36% UKIP:8% Conservative:6% TUSC:4% Liberal Democrat:3% Conwy, Caerhun: Independent:36% Conservative:30% Plaid Cymru:19% Labour:15% North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham: Labour:24% Conservative:22% UKIP:18% Edwards:27% Independent:9% Wrong thread and there is also Forest Heath Exning ward |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 10, 2013 10:38:09 GMT
Will that one count, given how recently it became known?
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Post by marksenior on Jul 10, 2013 10:44:10 GMT
I don't see why not but I don't set the rules .
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2013 11:27:08 GMT
Getting my predictions in early as I have a visitor for the next couple of days. Brighton and Hove, Hanover and Elmgrove: Greens:43% Labour:36% UKIP:8% Conservative:6% TUSC:4% Liberal Democrat:3% Conwy, Caerhun: Independent:36% Conservative:30% Plaid Cymru:19% Labour:15% North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham: Labour:24% Conservative:22% UKIP:18% Edwards:27% Independent:9% Wrong thread and there is also Forest Heath Exning ward Oops!!!! Thanks Mark. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 21:49:09 GMT
Just got back from Hanover & Elm Grove. Greens were out in force today, from Caroline Lucas (telling) and Jason Kitcat (knocking up) on down. Labour were out knocking up, but were not telling - apparently this is policy now?
General feeling at the end of the evening was that it might be close, but we should be ok; although like every party on election day we have our pessimists wandering around spreading doom and gloom. I have to say that my knocking up was very positive.
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 11, 2013 22:05:39 GMT
Does anyone else get the Scottish Elections blog if they click 'blog' at the top of Kris' Welsh Elections site?
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jul 11, 2013 22:15:07 GMT
Does anyone else get the Scottish Elections blog if they click 'blog' at the top of Kris' Welsh Elections site? |
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