By-elections - 27th June 2013

[marksenior]

Jun 28, 2013 9:23:43 GMT @trident said:

Jun 28, 2013 8:14:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It does tend to suggest the polls are understating UKIP. Its a fairly diverse range of wards although on balance they are areas that would disproportionately favour UKIP (there are no Scottish wards or anywhere in Islington for example), but it would suggest UKIP should be getting about 20% nationally

They were understated by polls in Corby and Eastleigh. It does seem that their supporters are more motivated to vote, which is the opposite of what you would expect for a party that thrives on the protest vote.

your last sentence is not necessarily true , when people want to protest for whatever reason then they will be motivated to turn out and protest .

[Merseymike]

Jun 27, 2013 23:10:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 27, 2013 22:39:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lab 50.3%
UKIP 34.6%
BNP 9.7%
Con 5.3%

Very good UKIP result

Looks like voters who have gone Indy in previous elections voted UKIP this time. Not unlike the S Shields byelection.

And the Tory vote has died.

The outcome of this sort of swing is to help Labour but split the right wing voice

[Merseymike]

Jun 28, 2013 8:14:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It does tend to suggest the polls are understating UKIP. Its a fairly diverse range of wards although on balance they are areas that would disproportionately favour UKIP (there are no Scottish wards or anywhere in Islington for example), but it would suggest UKIP should be getting about 20% nationally

The effect of this is going to boost Labour because the Tories are being decimated in the marginal areas like Plymouth

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 28, 2013 11:14:10 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 27, 2013 23:10:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like voters who have gone Indy in previous elections voted UKIP this time. Not unlike the S Shields byelection.

And the Tory vote has died.

The outcome of this sort of swing is to help Labour but split the right wing voice

Compared with the last election in this ward, the Tories are down by 6% and Labour are down by 25%. These UKIP voters in a ward like this are not the kind of voters who were previously available to the Tories

[The Bishop]

Yes, but the 2012 score is somewhat untypical. Labour have usually not massively exceeded half the vote in Primrose in recent years.

[Pete Whitehead]

Well what is typical or untypical. Many recent years covered periods of unpopular Labour goverment. To be sure your vote share is ever so slightly up compared with 2008 - that must be very encouraging.

[The Bishop]

Well by 2011 we were doing reasonably well, especially in these sorts of areas - but our vote here still wasn't much over 50%.

Yes, it was a good UKIP result - nobody is denying that. Happy now??

[andrea]

Jun 28, 2013 11:29:14 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, but the 2012 score is somewhat untypical. Labour have usually not massively exceeded half the vote in Primrose in recent years.

It doesn't contradict Pete's point. I guess his point is that in this kind of wards, UKIP takes lots of voters who have deserted Labour in 2004-2010 period for BNP, LD, Independents, abstentions rather than the Tories.
Even if they have different political pasts, I note how the recent Labour majorities over UKIP in Primerose, Weaste & Seedley (Salford) and Walkergate (Newcastle) have been pretty similar.

[Robert Waller]

I have offered some explanation of the swing to the Tories in Farnsfield & Bilsthorpe on the June Prediction Competition thread.

[The Bishop]

Plus that former mining villages in the Midlands are becoming a less sure bet for Labour than they once were.

Labour did make an effort in this ward, from what I saw - and were probably hoping to get a bit closer. I still expect us to win Sherwood next time, though

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2013 9:35:32 GMT @trident said:

Jun 28, 2013 9:00:20 GMT @fionabloor said:

This ward is in Sherwood constituency rather than Newark, no?

In which case it's very disappointing in a marginal parliamentary seat, although I wonder how much effort the CLP put into the ward, given it's fairly safe Tory anyway.

Its an ex-mining ward that has heavily trended tory. (From a poster on the other place from nearby)

I think labour will regain this seat in 2015, but will lose it in 2020 and not regain it.

[The Bishop]

That may be a bit sweeping - not all of Sherwood is trending to the Tories as strongly as this ward.

[Pimpernal]

What I find really encouraging now is the consistency with which UKIP are scoring credible local election results - compare that with 1 and 2 years ago - the improvement is massive. Remember Kemsley making headlines in Jan/Feb 2012 because we hit 20+ in a bye-election? It was almost unheard of back then. Now it's standard.

That bodes very well for future vote development and base building. In byelections 2010-2012 where UKIP got a good result, they tended to win the relevant County Ward in 2013 ...

[Robert Waller]

Good news for UKIP that the May 2014 council elections will now be held on the same day as the Euro-elections.

[The Bishop]

Re the Primrose vacancy - was Emma Lewell-Buck the Labour candidate in the early 2010 one?

To be elected via a by-election and leave the council after another one must be fairly unusual (though not unknown, obviously)

[andrea]

Jun 28, 2013 17:07:35 GMT The Bishop said:

Re the Primrose vacancy - was Emma Lewell-Buck the Labour candidate in the early 2010 one?

To be elected via a by-election and leave the council after another one must be fairly unusual (though not unknown, obviously)

ELB was elected in 2004. The winning candidate in 2010 by-election was Ken Stephenson.

[greatkingrat]

At a national level, Denis MacShane is an example of entering and leaving at a by-election.

[brianjrvs]

Jun 28, 2013 12:48:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Plus that former mining villages in the Midlands are becoming a less sure bet for Labour than they once were.

Labour did make an effort in this ward, from what I saw - and were probably hoping to get a bit closer. I still expect us to win Sherwood next time, though

Labour still managed to get 80-90% of the vote in New Bilsthorpe; Old Bilsthorpe (none mining part) 50:50; Farnsfield 70:30; the smaller villages were as Conservative as New Bilsthorpe was Labour.

As the Conservative agent in this by-election, the result was down to the fact that we had the stronger candidate (local and well known farmer). The Labour candidate didn't live locally, coming from Ollerton - which meant that we could motivate more of our supporters to go out and vote on the day than they could. Labour did work, but Sherwood Labour are not as strong campaigners as their colleagues from Nottingham. As for 2015 - too early to start making predictions - the voters still haven't made up their minds.