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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 27, 2013 23:04:49 GMT
Basildon - Billericay East
Con 790, UKIP 464, Lab 170, LD 128, NF 3(!)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 27, 2013 23:10:43 GMT
Lab 50.3% UKIP 34.6% BNP 9.7% Con 5.3% Very good UKIP result Looks like voters who have gone Indy in previous elections voted UKIP this time. Not unlike the S Shields byelection. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 27, 2013 23:15:24 GMT
Bilsthorpe & Farnsfield Ward, Newark & Sherwood
Con 1174
Lab 682
Everything counted and reported quite fast tonight. Well done, councils (and activists and local papers on twitter)
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 27, 2013 23:17:17 GMT
I haven't been paying attention much recently, so wasn't aware there was a by-election coming up, but I was in Bilsthorpe & Farnsfield ward last week, funnily enough.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 27, 2013 23:23:53 GMT
Lab 50.3% UKIP 34.6% BNP 9.7% Con 5.3% Very good UKIP result Looks like voters who have gone Indy in previous elections voted UKIP this time. Not unlike the S Shields byelection. Their vote is also very similar numerically to that of the BNP in the previous by election in this ward |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 28, 2013 1:00:34 GMT
Basildon, Billericay East - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Conservative | 790 | 50.8% | -6.7% | -13.8% | -10.3% | -15.0% | | UKIP | 464 | 29.8% | +14.2% | +21.3% | +25.2% | +24.6% | | Labour | 170 | 10.9% | -3.7% | -3.0% | -0.1% | +3.9% | | Lib Dems | 128 | 8.2% | -3.9% | -4.8% | -12.1% | -6.4% | | National Front | 3 | 0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | | | | | -2.9% | -7.5% | | Total votes | 1,555 | | -1,055 | -2,512 | -5,130 | -1,383 |
Swing Conservative to UKIP 10½% since 2012 and 17½% since 2011 and 2010 Dartford, Newtown - Labour gain from Conservatives | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average | | Labour | 536 | 45.4% | +4.5% | +6.2% | +6.6% | +9.4% | | Conservatives | 376 | 31.9% | -14.3% | -16.7% | -1.4% | -2.6% | | UKIP | 268 | 22.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +11.1% | +10.8% | | English Dem | | | -12.9% | -12.2% | -16.3% | -17.6% | | Total votes | 1,180 | | -878 | -735 | -780 | -634 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 9½% / 11½% since 2011 and ~4% since 2007 Newark & Sherwood, Farnsfield & Bilsthorpe - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 1,174 | 63.3% | +4.7% | +4.6% | +10.9% | +9.4% | | Labour | 682 | 36.7% | -4.7% | -4.6% | +5.9% | +8.5% | | Lib Dems | | | | | -16.8% | -17.9% | | Total votes | 1,856 | | -1,130 | -1,019 | -1,172 | Row 5 column 7 |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~4½% since 2011 and a small swing since 2007 - in a seat where the Conservative MP has resigned the whip following allegation of "cash for questions".Plymouth, Southway - Labour gain from Conservatives - amended as Conservatives polled 1 more vote than first reported and UKIP 1 fewer | Party | 2013 vote | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,247 | 43.1% | -8.2% | -10.1% | +7.4% | +9.1% | | UKIP | 764 | 26.4% | +4.6% | from nowhere | +15.2% | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 487 | 16.8% | -10.0% | -29.9% | -19.2% | -22.0% | | Independent | 290 | 10.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 82 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -14.2% | -14.3% | | TUSAC | 22 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | | | | | | -10.0% | | Total votes | 2,892 | | -705 | -1,043 | -3,158 | -502 |
Swing Labour to UKIP 6.4% since 2012 and 4% since 2010 as Conservatives fall to third place.
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 28, 2013 1:02:07 GMT
Rutland, Ketton - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | | Conservative | 330 | 44.4% | | Independent M | 260 | 34.9% | | UKIP | 130 | 17.5% | | Independent B | 24 | 3.2% | | Total votes | 744 | |
Last contested in 2003 when 2 Independents were elected against sole Conservative - although subsequently elected as Conservatives in 2007 South Tyneside, Cleadon & East Bolden - Labour gain from Conservative sitting as UKIP | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 991 | 38.8% | -7.3% | -11.4% | -0.8% | +6.6% | | Conservatives | 899 | 35.2% | -18.3% | -6.1% | -6.4% | -32.6% | | UKIP | 666 | 26.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Progressives | | | | -6.2% | -15.5% | | | Independent | | | | -2.3% | | | | BNP | | | | | -3.3% | | | Total votes | 2,556 | | -579 | -1,291 | -2,445 | -722 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 5½% since 2012, ~3% since 2010 and 20% since 2008 - but ~2½% Labour to Conservative since 2011 South Tyneside, Primrose - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2010 B | since 2008 | | Labour | 755 | 50.3% | -25.0% | -2.7% | -2.9% | +8.3% | +1.7% | | UKIP | 520 | 34.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | 146 | 9.7% | -3.6% | from nowhere | -4.7% | -18.2% | -23.2% | | Conservatives | 80 | 5.3% | -6.1% | -2.2% | -3.8% | -0.8% | -13.2% | | Lib Dems | | | | | -12.7% | -4.9% | | | Green | | | | | -1.9% | | | | 1st Independent | | | | -35.2% | -8.6% | -10.5% | | | 2nd Independent | | | | -4.3% | | -8.6% | | | Total votes | 1,501 | | -205 | -680 | -1,605 | -530 | -567 |
Swing not meaningful Worcestershire, Stourport-on-Severn - Health Concern gain from UKIP - Conservative vote amended from 735 first reported to 753 | Party | 2013 B vote | 2013 B share | since 2013 "top" | since 2013 "average" | since 2009 "top" | since 2009 "average" | | Healthy Concern | 1,055 | 30.6% | +4.1% | +4.0% | -6.9% | -6.6% | | UKIP | 892 | 25.8% | -1.7% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 753 | 21.8% | +2.3% | +1.1% | -7.8% | -7.5% | | Labour | 607 | 17.6% | -5.1% | -4.0% | +6.3% | +6.1% | | Green | 77 | 2.2% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -2.7% | -2.9% | | BNP | 39 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem | 30 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.0% | -4.2% | | Independent | | | | | -8.0% | -8.2% | | Liberal | | | | | -3.7% | -3.8% | | Total votes | 3,453 | | -1,587 | -1,261 | -2,939 | -2,781 |
Swing amended UKIP to Health Concern ~2.7% since May - Conservative 1% or 2% up, Labour share 4% or 5% down
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 1:04:07 GMT
This week in summary - Labour doing well, UKIP very strong.
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 28, 2013 1:11:48 GMT
This week in summary - Labour doing well, UKIP very strong. Lib Dems contested only 3 of the 8 seats polling just 0.9% in Worcestershire, 2.8% in Plymouth and 8.2% in Billericay. Initial view is that the Conservatives performed better than earlier in the month - 3 seats lost w2ere largely expected - notwithstanding strong UKIP vote. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2013 7:20:56 GMT
The loss in Dartford was expected by all of us here, having said that it was a far heavier defeat than generally expected. It seems likely that the Tories would have carried this ward in the county council elections in May
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 7:25:08 GMT
The loss in Dartford was expected by all of us here, having said that it was a far heavier defeat than generally expected. It seems likely that the Tories would have carried this ward in the county council elections in May Confused UKIP gain 22% of the vote, they didn't have the seat to lose. I would have said they were winners in that election a platform to build on. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2013 7:28:38 GMT
I didn't mention UKIP
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Post by marksenior on Jun 28, 2013 7:32:40 GMT
The loss in Dartford was expected by all of us here, having said that it was a far heavier defeat than generally expected. It seems likely that the Tories would have carried this ward in the county council elections in May Confused UKIP gain 22% of the vote, they didn't have the seat to lose. I would have said they were winners in that election a platform to build on. The 200 odd votes that UKIP got here were pretty much what the English Dems got in 2011but were a higher percentage as the turnout was lower . |
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Post by brianjrvs on Jun 28, 2013 8:00:26 GMT
Farnsfield and Bilsthorpe is in Sherwood Constituency and not the Newark seat.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 28, 2013 8:04:34 GMT
UKIP performances in yesterday's by-elections:
BASILDON - Billericay East: 29.84%
DARTFORD - Newtown: 22.71%
PLYMOUTH - Southway: 26.45%
RUTLAND - Ketton: 17.47%
SOUTH TYNESIDE - Cleadon and East Boldon: 26.06%
SOUTH TYNESIDE - Primrose: 34.64%
WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn: 25.97%
UKIP overall performance in contested by-elections yesterday:
UKIP votes: 3,705
Total votes: 13,863
UKIP percentage: 26.73%
UKIP overall performance, including Newark & Sherwood where they didn't stand:
UKIP votes: 3,705
Total votes: 15,719
UKIP percentage: 23.57%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2013 8:14:30 GMT
It does tend to suggest the polls are understating UKIP. Its a fairly diverse range of wards although on balance they are areas that would disproportionately favour UKIP (there are no Scottish wards or anywhere in Islington for example), but it would suggest UKIP should be getting about 20% nationally
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 28, 2013 8:16:53 GMT
The UKIP performances were strong everywhere they stood - the net result is that they lost two seats (albeit one gained by defection). Sometimes politics is a hard game.
Generally a good week for Labour - Dartford is particularly strong performance, but the swing against them in Newark & Sherwood has to be disappointing. That result is probably the main comfort for the Tories this week. Labour also hit quite hard in Primrose, although I wonder if that might be because they were concentrating efforts on gaining the other seat in South Tyneside.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 28, 2013 8:18:48 GMT
It does tend to suggest the polls are understating UKIP. Its a fairly diverse range of wards although on balance they are areas that would disproportionately favour UKIP (there are no Scottish wards or anywhere in Islington for example), but it would suggest UKIP should be getting about 20% nationally IF they can transfer local results into a General Election. The LDs consistently have done better in locals than they manage in a General. It's unproved territory as yet for UKIP. |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 28, 2013 8:34:39 GMT
It does tend to suggest the polls are understating UKIP. Its a fairly diverse range of wards although on balance they are areas that would disproportionately favour UKIP (there are no Scottish wards or anywhere in Islington for example), but it would suggest UKIP should be getting about 20% nationally No it doesn't . You are comparing GE VI opinion polls where a GE will have a turnout of 60 odd % with local elections with a turnout of 20 odd % and UKIP supporters are the most motivated to go out and register a protest vote . Compare the BNP performance in Primrose ward in the Feb 2010 by election with their VI in the opinion polls at the time and their actual performance in the GE 3 months later . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 9:00:20 GMT
Swing Labour to Conservative ~4½% since 2011 and a small swing since 2007 - in a seat where the Conservative MP has resigned the whip following allegation of "cash for questions". This ward is in Sherwood constituency rather than Newark, no? |
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