Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 29, 2013 14:04:43 GMT
I'm sure Andrea can offer some useful insight here. The changes between 2004 and 2009 are slightly difficult to track. Like the UK and France, ITaly reduced from 78 to 72 seats in 2009 (and will elect 73 MEPS next year). In addition, Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale merged to form PdL (Popolo della Liberta). Also for 2009 a 4% threshold was introduced meaning most of the smaller parties had to form electoral alliances. In 2004 the seats had been split between 20 different parties. In 2009 the results were: | PdL | 35.3% | +2.9% | 29 seats | +4 | EPP | | PD | 26.1 | -5.0 | 21 | -3 | S & D | | Lega Nord | 10.2 | +5.2 | 9 | +5 | EFD | | Italia dei Valori | 8.0 | +5.9 | 7 | +5 | ALDE | | UDC | 6.5 | +0.6 | 5 | nc | EPP | | SVP (South Tyrol People's Party) | 0.5* | nc | 1 | 1 | EPP |
Various alliances of smaller parties (communists, socialists, Greens, etc...) failed to make the threshold losing 17 seats in the process. The SVP by-pass the threshold through an alliance with PD in NE Italy, but sit in the parliament in EPP with PdL, which is somewhat confusing. The top ranking alliances and others were: Anticapitalist List (PRC, PdCI - both communists) - 3.4% Sinistra e Liberta (Left and Freedom) (Greens, Socialists, Democratic Left) - 3.1% Pannella- Bonnino LIst - 2.4% The Autonomy (The Right, Pensioners, MdA, ADC) - 2.2% After this years elections I'm not sure I'd like to guess what will happen here next year. What impact will the 5 star movement have? |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 30, 2013 9:40:34 GMT
It's hard to predict the national picture one year in advance. I mean, how much long will the current government last? Will they be in charge in May 2014? Or maybe they have just collapsed and we're going to vote the GE election on the same day. That would completely change the picture as turnout will be higher and the whole campaign frame different.
IIRC the Left never did particularly well in Euro elections (in recent times...the only time PCI topped the poll in Italy was actually in the 1984 Euro elections "helped" by Berlinguer's death during the campaign)
As things stand, Italia dei Valori will almost certainly lose all their seats. 5 Stars will be above the threshold. Lega, UDC (assuming the Monti's list won't run) and SEL could be borderline.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 15, 2014 12:29:34 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 15, 2014 12:50:35 GMT
Lega Nord very disappointing. Might have to do a bit of canvassing when in Tuscany this summer? It is a problem being too regional as it would have appeal in much of the RC south if it were not so antagonistic to them.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 15, 2014 13:42:06 GMT
Lega Nord very disappointing. Might have to do a bit of canvassing when in Tuscany this summer? It is a problem being too regional as it would have appeal in much of the RC south if it were not so antagonistic to them. I don't see any surprise in the fact than a partly called "Northern League" isn't popular outside of the North. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 21, 2014 13:37:55 GMT
Latest poll shows PD falling and Grillo rising:
PD 27.6%
M5S 24.9%
FI 22.4%
Tsipras 7.2%
Lega 4.8%
Fd’I 3.4%
NCD 3.1%
UDC 1.6%
SC 1%
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 3, 2014 11:23:39 GMT
New poll (same pollaster of the poll posted by David above)
PD 28.5
FI 23.2
M5S 22.7
Tsipras 6.9
Lega 4.6
Brothers of Italy 3.6
NCD 3.0
UDC 1.8
Civic Choice 1.1
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 3, 2014 11:59:46 GMT
New poll (same pollaster of the poll posted by David above) PD 28.5 FI 23.2 M5S 22.7 Tsipras 6.9 Lega 4.6 Brothers of Italy 3.6 NCD 3.0 UDC 1.8 Civic Choice 1.1 On a straight calculation (I know Italy has a 4% threshold and has five constituencies) PD 24 (+3); FI 20 (-9); M5S 19 (+19); Tsipras 6 (+6); Lega Nord 4 (-5); NCD 0 (-7); UDC 0 (-5) F'DI 0 (-2) I think we can assume for instance that the South Tyrolese will get their customary seat. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 3, 2014 20:14:45 GMT
I'm sorry, I'm baffled- Tsipras has appeared in Italy?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2014 20:43:26 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2014 21:16:24 GMT
I'm sorry, I'm baffled- Tsipras has appeared in Italy? Aye, could end up getting more seats from Italy than Greece  -- I'm a little confused by these polls as they dont include SEL, allied with the PD, but they seem to normally contest the Euros and have appeared in other EU polls. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 3, 2014 22:45:41 GMT
That is utterly, utterly bizarre. Next week- Joe Higgins to stand in Latvia.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 4, 2014 2:23:00 GMT
I'm sorry, I'm baffled- Tsipras has appeared in Italy? Aye, could end up getting more seats from Italy than Greece -- I'm a little confused by these polls as they dont include SEL, allied with the PD, but they seem to normally contest the Euros and have appeared in other EU polls. Tsipras runs in Greece. The Tsipias list includes SEL, I think, and it's an alliance of the "alternative" left. As usual, they can't agree on anything, but they agreed on supporting Tsipras as President of European Commission, so they run on that. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 4, 2014 7:30:00 GMT
That is utterly, utterly bizarre. Next week- Joe Higgins to stand in Latvia. David Steel stood in Italy in 1989 and I think was the first to stand outside his home country. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Mar 4, 2014 9:59:22 GMT
Yes, SEL decided to join the For Another Europe - Tsipras list. Even if some within the party disagreed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2014 10:42:42 GMT
Yes, SEL decided to join the For Another Europe - Tsipras list. Even if some within the party disagreed. They really are all over the shop, first they were going to join the EGP, then PES and now the Left  |
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Post by slicesofjim on Mar 4, 2014 15:47:49 GMT
Well I'm glad they have, I am a little surprised they are polling as high as 7% - left PD supporters unhappy with the heirio to Blairio?
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 10, 2014 10:34:09 GMT
That is utterly, utterly bizarre. Next week- Joe Higgins to stand in Latvia. David Steel stood in Italy in 1989 and I think was the first to stand outside his home country. How many have been elected from outside their home country? James Goldsmith is the only one I can think of immediately. Perhaps a German in Spain? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2014 10:50:09 GMT
Monica Frassoni (Greens co-chair) has been an MEP for both Belgium (Wallonia) and Italy, although I'm sure there are others
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 10, 2014 11:30:46 GMT
Marta Andreasen?
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