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Post by andydm on Jun 14, 2013 8:37:18 GMT
I was thinking before that until now the Tories had held up reasonably in Woolston, compared to similar wards in other areas, and had done better in 2011 and 2012 in Itchen than Test. Perhaps they have now decided that Itchen(which I believe includes Woolston) is the better area for them to put the work in to. If anyone should be worried it is Labour their vote was down substantially. Oh, Labour should be worried. Woolston is a ward they need to win comfortably in order to hold Southampton Itchen and an increase in the UKIP vote at the expense of Labour is not good. My assumption was that UKIP would come close second or possibly win and Conservatives would be a poor third. The first came true but the Conservative vote held steady and Royston Smith will be delighted by that. There are excuses that could be employed by Labour. The circumstances of Cllr Williams resignation was difficult and meant that he couldn't campaign for Christopher Hammond to succeed him. Williams was a long standing councillor there, he was the only councillor the Lib Dems couldn't knock off when they were winning the ward in 2000 and 2003. Anecdotally the Ed Balls pension remarks didn't help being in the postal voting period. But it was a bad result for Labour and maybe shows that there's a large section of Woolston (and particularly Weston) that won't ever vote Tory but that does not mean they agree with Labour much. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 9:08:13 GMT
Very surprised that labour did that badly in Southampton.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 9:43:51 GMT
Harry Hayfield Harry Hayfield 3m #Watlington on #WestNorfolk: #UKIP 179 (45%) #Con 115 (29%) #Lab 99 (25%) #UKIP GAIN from #LibDem |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2013 9:55:52 GMT
Very surprised that labour did that badly in Southampton. As already stated, not so much given the circumstances of the byelection. I have noted that people often tend to underestimate the effects of these things when making their predictions. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2013 10:01:13 GMT
What were the circumstances?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2013 10:03:34 GMT
The then council leader had to resign both his position and seat after a damning independent report.
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2013 10:49:40 GMT
Kirklees being reported in another place as a Labour gain  |
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Post by andrea on Jun 14, 2013 11:10:21 GMT
Kirklees being reported in another place as a Labour gain Simon Alvy (Labour) 1,517 Sharon Light (Conservative) 1,378 Simon Alvy (Lib Dem) 599 Turnout: 25.3% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2013 11:14:30 GMT
It looks there like an unusually strong LD performance eating into the Tory vote. Labour vote is about par
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2013 11:17:33 GMT
I don't *think* that the explanation for that is the Labour and LibDem candidates having the same name  |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 14, 2013 12:10:33 GMT
Kirklees being reported in another place as a Labour gain Simon Alvy (Labour) 1,517 Sharon Light (Conservative) 1,378 Simon Alvy (Lib Dem) 599 Turnout: 25.3% Labour 43.4% +5.1% Con 39.4% -9.7% Lib Dem 17.1% +13.% |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2013 13:54:49 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 14, 2013 14:17:37 GMT
I don't *think* that the explanation for that is the Labour and LibDem candidates having the same name Given the very low LibDem vote in recent elections, I imagine they have just been fielding paper candidates over the last few years. I wonder if they just did a bit of campaigning this time and that is why their vote increased? I understand that there was a fair bit of activity from our side in Liversidge. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 14, 2013 15:49:13 GMT
That's a very good result in Kirklees. I don't think Labour have ever won that ward on the current boundaries.
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 14, 2013 16:11:50 GMT
That's a very good result in Kirklees. I don't think Labour have ever won that ward on the current boundaries. The ward appears to be a successor to the old Spen ward, which was a Labour hold in 98, plus a bit that used to be in Heckmondwike( but not Heckmondwike itself). So yes it is your first win on these boundaries, but I'm pretty sure you would have won it several times before had it existed. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 14, 2013 16:25:45 GMT
I don't think the Tories held all seats in any Kirklees ward in the nineties- 96and98 results are online and Labour won Birstall and Birkenshaw and Kirkburton in 96, and the Tories were gaining Mirfield from Labour in 98.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2013 16:37:00 GMT
The Lab and LibDem candidates don't share the same name Yeah I know - the start of this thread confirms that. Was just a gentle dig at our Italian friend's typo |
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 14, 2013 16:57:33 GMT
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Watlington - UKIP gain from Lib Dem who did not defend the seat | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | since 2007 | since 2003 | | UKIP | 179 | 45.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 115 | 29.3% | from nowhere | -7.0% | -42.9% | | Labour | 99 | 25.2% | +7.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | | | -82.5% | -63.7% | -27.8% | | Total votes | 393 | | -377 | -415 | -301 |
Swing not meaningful Kirklees, Liversidge & Gomersall - Labour gain from Conservatives | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,517 | 43.4% | +5.1% | +1.9% | +17.2% | +27.2% | | Conservatives | 1,378 | 39.4% | -9.6% | -7.3% | -2.6% | -13.4% | | Lib Dems | 599 | 17.1% | +13.4% | +11.6% | -0.7% | +9.3% | | Green | | | -8.9% | -6.3% | -2.7% | -4.1% | | BNP | | | | | -11.4% | -19.1% | | Total votes | 3,494 | | -624 | -1,786 | -5,227 | 1,415 |
Swing Conservatives to Labour 7.4% since 2012, 4.6% since 2011, 10% since 2010 and 20% since 2008 Southampton, Woolston - Labour hold Result slightly amended as UKIP vote was 731 not 741 previously reported.| Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 864 | 32.5% | -22.6% | -20.2% | -10.0% | -8.9% | | UKIP | 731 | 27.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 704 | 26.4% | -5.4% | -5.4% | -4.1% | -11.4% | | TUSAC | 136 | 5.1% | +0.4% | +0.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 120 | 4.5% | -3.8% | -6.0% | -17.8% | -7.8% | | Greens | 107 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.7% | -4.4% | | Total votes | 2,662 | | -257 | -694 | -3,091 | -359 |
Swing not very meaningful but around 8% Labour to Conservative since 2011 and 2012.
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Post by jdc on Jun 14, 2013 18:32:49 GMT
I don't think the Tories held all seats in any Kirklees ward in the nineties- 96and98 results are online and Labour won Birstall and Birkenshaw and Kirkburton in 96, and the Tories were gaining Mirfield from Labour in 98. Tories definitely held Mirfield in around 95 or 96 though - my first count! Political memory is dim but it might have been a by-election. |
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Post by andrea on Jun 14, 2013 18:39:59 GMT
The Lab and LibDem candidates don't share the same name Yeah I know - the start of this thread confirms that. Was just a gentle dig at our Italian friend's typo ops, I didn't realize that until now! When I saw your comment, I even went back to the start of the thread to check if they really had the same surname |
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