carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2018 10:39:35 GMT
For hullenedge What on earth are they for? What is the deeper understanding that you now have about what happened? Identifying groups of constituencies. Works better in larger groups where trends may be more difficult to spot. Also a 'fun way' to pass time whilst dog sitting on a windy day! Your coloured lists do it so much better.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2018 12:38:06 GMT
For hullenedgeWhat on earth are they for? What is the deeper understanding that you now have about what happened? Identifying groups of constituencies. Works better in larger groups where trends may be more difficult to spot. Also a 'fun way' to pass time whilst dog sitting on a windy day! How do you decide which constituencies go in which groups / branches? It looks like you have to analyse / process the statistics somehow in the first place, in order to get the information which you then treeify. So the tree itself is redundant.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2018 13:56:35 GMT
1994 was the last time a Conservative was elected to Islington Borough Council.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2018 15:34:24 GMT
1994 was the last time a Conservative was elected to Islington Borough Council. Also, I happen to know, the first time that no Conservatives were elected to Weymouth & Portland Borough Council. This would then happen again in the next three (in thirds) elections - 1995, 1996 and 1998. They currently hold 17/36 seats in the Borough, but as recently as 2013, they won no County divisions within the borough; as recently as 2014, they didn't stand a full slate of candidates (with no independents running in the relevant wards either); and as recently as 2016, they won just 1 of 12 council seats up for election.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2018 16:09:22 GMT
Identifying groups of constituencies. Works better in larger groups where trends may be more difficult to spot. Also a 'fun way' to pass time whilst dog sitting on a windy day! How do you decide which constituencies go in which groups / branches? It looks like you have to analyse / process the statistics somehow in the first place, in order to get the information which you then treeify. So the tree itself is redundant. R does the hard work:- www.r-project.org/about.html
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2018 18:02:06 GMT
1994 was the last time a Conservative was elected to Islington Borough Council. Also, I happen to know, the first time that no Conservatives were elected to Weymouth & Portland Borough Council. This would then happen again in the next three (in thirds) elections - 1995, 1996 and 1998. They currently hold 17/36 seats in the Borough, but as recently as 2013, they won no County divisions within the borough; as recently as 2014, they didn't stand a full slate of candidates (with no independents running in the relevant wards either); and as recently as 2016, they won just 1 of 12 council seats up for election. I think 1994 would have been the first year no Conservative councillors were elected in quite a number of local authorities, some of which have not returned a Conservative since
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2018 18:07:30 GMT
It was also the only year that this happened in St Albans. It was the first of many times in Oxford and Cambridge and in Knowsley and Manchester it was the first time but had been repeated every year since then
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 20:09:13 GMT
Also, I happen to know, the first time that no Conservatives were elected to Weymouth & Portland Borough Council. This would then happen again in the next three (in thirds) elections - 1995, 1996 and 1998. They currently hold 17/36 seats in the Borough, but as recently as 2013, they won no County divisions within the borough; as recently as 2014, they didn't stand a full slate of candidates (with no independents running in the relevant wards either); and as recently as 2016, they won just 1 of 12 council seats up for election. I think 1994 would have been the first year no Conservative councillors were elected in quite a number of local authorities, some of which have not returned a Conservative since Conversely the Tories managed to win seats in Haringey and Liverpool in 1994, something which they haven’t done this century.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 17, 2018 9:17:54 GMT
Territorial swing clusters (swing from 1970 to 1979, BBC notionals used when necessary), swing bands within 1% and constituencies (at least three) adjoining:- 143 constituencies (out of a possible 515) within clusters.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2018 15:04:52 GMT
Two constituencies have had by-elections since the 2017 Parliament. Number of votes cast in those two constituencies at the general election: 90,687 Number of votes cast in the subsequent by-elections: 56,995 As the two elections have been in very different areas (the sealed off party system of Northern Ireland, and the multi-party tradition of London) the stats are a touch "skewed" though as I've always said, any stats are better than none. Top 5 votes at the 2017 election and the subsequent by-elections 32,072 | Labour | 1 | Sinn Féin | 16,346 | 22,060 | Sinn Féin | 2 | Labour | 11,033 | 11,718 | DUP | 3 | DUP | 8,390 | 10,859 | Conservative | 4 | SDLP | 6,254 | 5,635 | SDLP | 5 | Lib Dem | 5,404 |
Largest negative difference between 2017 election votes and by-election: Labour (-21,039) Largest positive difference between 2017 election votes and by-election: Lib Dem (+3,318) Largest negative percentage difference between 2017 election votes and by-election, not including those parties which did not stand: Conservative (-70.83) Largest positive percentage difference between 2017 election votes and by-election, not including those parties which did not stand: Lib Dem (+159.06) Attachments:
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 19, 2018 7:38:28 GMT
A Liberal 'Top 20', England & Wales 1964 - 1979:- (Unchanged/minor change constituencies and a Liberal candidate at every election. A pool of 124 seats).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 19, 2018 9:44:14 GMT
Is that vote share or swing? I assume the former but it seems rather notable that North Devon is consistently absent from the list
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 19, 2018 10:02:28 GMT
Is that vote share or swing? I assume the former but it seems rather notable that North Devon is consistently absent from the list Vote share. The Liberal '124' from 1964-79:- Boundary changes in North Devon so excluded. Probably would have voted Conservative in 1970 (if boundary review had been passed).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 21, 2018 21:09:38 GMT
The SNP's record vote share within a single constituency of 67%, set by Donald Stewart in Na h-Eileanan an Iar (then called the Western Isles) in February 1974, still stands as a record today in spite of the SNP's famous surge of 2015.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 22, 2018 11:13:09 GMT
The 1979 median swings in the 30 (1971) Census clusters:-
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 23, 2018 8:23:47 GMT
Swing 1955-79 in unchanged/minor change constituencies (over 10% in both directions):-
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2018 9:04:06 GMT
Found my by-election number cruncher for 2010-2015 covered in dust and cobwebs (well, hidden on my Google Drive). Total number of votes for each party at the 2010 general election, and subsequent by-elections between 2010-2015 were: Number of Votes (2010 election) | Party | Place | Party | Number of Votes (by-elections) | 330,537 | Labour | 1 | Labour | 218,194 | 253,043 | Conservative | 2 | UKIP | 104,583 | 171,126 | Liberal Democrat | 3 | Conservative | 104,539 | 44,079 | Sinn Féin | 4 | Liberal Democrat | 49,951 | 29,544 | BNP | 5 | Sinn Féin | 33,673 | 19,010 | UKIP | 6 | Respect | 21,008 | 11,087 | SDLP | 7 | N. Lutton (Independent) | 12,781 | 8,312 | DUP | 8 | SDLP | 9,566 | 6,577 | SNP | 9 | SNP | 9,280 | 5,740 | Green | 10 | Green | 9,177 |
Total number of votes cast in the constituencies at the general election - 907,696 Total number of votes cast in the resulting by-elections - 604,953 My 2015-2017 spreadsheet shows 472,690 votes cast at the general, 291,022 at the resulting by-elections. In the current Parliament, two elections have stats of 90,687 votes cast at the general, 56,995 at the by-elections. Whenever I think "Hmm, number crunching for the sake of it or what...?" I look at, for example, the appearance on the top 10 of Respect and the BNP, given that one no longer exists and the other might as well no longer exist, and the massive kick in the UKIP vote, which shows the little snapshots of history which the unpredictable circus of by-elections throws up.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2018 11:39:29 GMT
Thought I'd watch the football and create a number-cruncher for the 2005-2010 parliament. That period includes Haltemprice and Howden. CANNOT WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS WORKS OUT.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2018 7:59:55 GMT
So as before the top cumulative totals from the by-elections of 2010-15 with general election tallies alongside. I now have put together 2010-15, 15-17 and 17-present and will try to get 2005-10 (all like six of them) done soon. One tab of my spreadsheets collates the numerical difference between by-election and election votes, and I want to table these up at some point. 2010-15 was such a weird experience. It feels so recent and so far-away, all at the same time (Blaenau Gwent selection scandal could bring down Labour! Has George Galloway defeated Labour in their backyard for ever?! Michael Martin will not stand down, says sources! HOW MANY CANDIDATES IN HALTEMPRICE??!) In total I have 78 candidates and parties standing in the 2010-15 by-elections, and the difference in total votes overall isn't shockingly bad: 585,879 in the general, 433,345 in the resulting by-elections. My rough maths says (well, an Excel formula says) that's a 35% drop; the current Parliament has over 50% fewer voters like-for-like. Anyway, here's the top 10. Votes (2010 general) | Party | Place | Party | Votes (by-elections) | 209,393 | Labour | 1 | Labour | 127,422 | 150,834 | Conservative | 2 | Conservative | 120,711 | 119,750 | Liberal Democrat | 3 | Liberal Democrat | 87,360 | 36,604 | SNP | 4 | SNP | 41,386 | 20,505 | Peter Law (Ind.) | 5 | Dai Davies (Ind.) | 12,543 | 15,153 | Speaker Martin | 6 | UKIP | 9,434 | 6,828 | UKIP | 7 | Green (E&W) | 9,082 | 6,415 | Green (E&W) | 8 | BNP | 5,691 | 4,681 | Scottish Socialist Party | 9[ | English Democrats | 2,687 | 4,252 | Reg Keys (Ind) | 10 | Paul Gittins (Ind) | 1,885 |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2018 17:26:10 GMT
So as before the top cumulative totals from the by-elections of 2010-15 with general election tallies alongside. I now have put together 2010-15, 15-17 and 17-present and will try to get 2005-10 (all like six of them) done soon. One tab of my spreadsheets collates the numerical difference between by-election and election votes, and I want to table these up at some point. 2010-15 was such a weird experience. It feels so recent and so far-away, all at the same time (Blaenau Gwent selection scandal could bring down Labour! Has George Galloway defeated Labour in their backyard for ever?! Michael Martin will not stand down, says sources! HOW MANY CANDIDATES IN HALTEMPRICE??!) In total I have 78 candidates and parties standing in the 2010-15 by-elections, and the difference in total votes overall isn't shockingly bad: 585,879 in the general, 433,345 in the resulting by-elections. My rough maths says (well, an Excel formula says) that's a 35% drop; the current Parliament has over 50% fewer voters like-for-like. Anyway, here's the top 10. Votes (2010 general) | Party | Place | Party | Votes (by-elections) | 209,393 | Labour | 1 | Labour | 127,422 | 150,834 | Conservative | 2 | Conservative | 120,711 | 119,750 | Liberal Democrat | 3 | Liberal Democrat | 87,360 | 36,604 | SNP | 4 | SNP | 41,386 | 20,505 | Peter Law (Ind.) | 5 | Dai Davies (Ind.) | 12,543 | 15,153 | Speaker Martin | 6 | UKIP | 9,434 | 6,828 | UKIP | 7 | Green (E&W) | 9,082 | 6,415 | Green (E&W) | 8 | BNP | 5,691 | 4,681 | Scottish Socialist Party | 9[ | English Democrats | 2,687 | 4,252 | Reg Keys (Ind) | 10 | Paul Gittins (Ind) | 1,885 |
That looks like the 2005-2010 list. 2010-2015 would have UKIP higher.
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