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Post by greenchristian on May 25, 2018 10:09:12 GMT
This outfit on Twitter are putting out data of this type for every constituency: But the referendum data doesn't exist for every constituency...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,454
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2018 10:14:59 GMT
This outfit on Twitter are putting out data of this type for every constituency: But the referendum data doesn't exist for every constituency... Indeed, which makes me think this is some sort of Electoral Calculus type thing. As I may have said before, I'm not a massive fan of that personally.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2018 10:19:14 GMT
Kevin Cunningham and Ian Warren are terrible hacks. This is likely to be a fairly shoddy (mostly) guessing exercise for attention seeking.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,866
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Post by YL on May 25, 2018 10:26:38 GMT
But the referendum data doesn't exist for every constituency... Indeed, which makes me think this is some sort of Electoral Calculus type thing. As I may have said before, I'm not a massive fan of that personally. He said what it was, if you go back through his tweets: Now we know YouGov's own MRP for the General Election did really quite well, but I'm sure it's the sort of thing that can be done well or badly. There's also a certain amount of spurious accuracy in quoting numbers to five significant figures; e.g. for Don Valley they have Lab/Remain at 10,371 and Lab/Leave at 10,055; even if the model is doing a good job I'd be surprised if that difference wasn't within the margin of error. (Even so it makes Remain stronger among Labour voters in places like that than conventional wisdom.)
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Post by Andrew_S on May 25, 2018 11:30:50 GMT
But the referendum data doesn't exist for every constituency... Indeed, which makes me think this is some sort of Electoral Calculus type thing. As I may have said before, I'm not a massive fan of that personally. Their figures look a bit iffy to me especially in safe Labour seats.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 25, 2018 11:57:54 GMT
Looks like pure bollocks to me
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Post by Andrew_S on May 25, 2018 12:33:44 GMT
Looks like pure bollocks to me Yes in a place like Don Valley you'd expect the middle-class Tory areas to have been relatively good for Remain and the Labour former mining areas to have been good for Leave but they don't seem to take that into account.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 25, 2018 12:58:56 GMT
That does not mean it would be Conservative voters in the middle-class Tory areas voting remain, and Labour voters in the mining areas voting leave.
A lot of people in these long-standing Labour seats seem to take the phrase "Labour voter" as meaning someone who may once have voted Labour, but stopped actually doing so some decades ago. And remember those like the egregious John Bickley who appealed as someone from a Labour family but never actually claimed to have voted Labour in any previous election. Those who are actually still voting Labour are quite different from those who have stopped doing but still feel some degree of identity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2018 13:38:07 GMT
Indeed, which makes me think this is some sort of Electoral Calculus type thing. As I may have said before, I'm not a massive fan of that personally. He said what it was, if you go back through his tweets: Now we know YouGov's own MRP for the General Election did really quite well, but I'm sure it's the sort of thing that can be done well or badly. There's also a certain amount of spurious accuracy in quoting numbers to five significant figures; e.g. for Don Valley they have Lab/Remain at 10,371 and Lab/Leave at 10,055; even if the model is doing a good job I'd be surprised if that difference wasn't within the margin of error. (Even so it makes Remain stronger among Labour voters in places like that than conventional wisdom.) Quoting figures to that level of detail that the underlying data couldn't possibly support is a prime example of the hackishness of this pair.
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Post by johnloony on May 27, 2018 0:22:10 GMT
In the Irish referendum, the percentage of Yes votes was 66.399%. If an extra 18 voters had voted Yes instead of No, it would have been exactly 66.4%.
Edit: No it wouldn't; my calculator said it would because it only has 8 digits in the display. But anyway.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2018 9:54:00 GMT
Until the May local elections, there were still many wards in London split between Labour & the Liberal Democrats, and there were many more in past elections. Now, there's only one in the whole of London, Fortune Green in Camden, pending countermanded elections. Funnily enough the countermanded elections are both in wards that have been split between Labour and Lib Dems - Willesden Green was in both 2006 and 2010 (2 LD 1 Lab in both cases) and London Bridge & West Bermondsey is based on the old Grange ward which was also split 2 LD and 1 Lab in 2014. I suspect the latter may well split it's representation again in the countermanded poll
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on May 31, 2018 17:24:43 GMT
Until the May local elections, there were still many wards in London split between Labour & the Liberal Democrats, and there were many more in past elections. Now, there's only one in the whole of London, Fortune Green in Camden, pending countermanded elections. Ealing Common (1 Con 1 lab 1 ld) technically may count (or not)
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 31, 2018 17:45:48 GMT
Kevin Cunningham and Ian Warren are terrible hacks. This is likely to be a fairly shoddy (mostly) guessing exercise for attention seeking. I’m always dubious about anyone who feels the need to emphasise their doctorate in their Twitter display name. The same applies to other qualifications they feel they have to make sure everyone knows about. FBPE sounds like a qualification too.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 2, 2018 11:22:36 GMT
Bournemouth is the largest Conservative-dominated principal authority in the UK below county level (52 out of 54 councillors in Bournemouth are Conservatives) which is also not a "county unitary", with a population of approximately 186,000 people.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 16:19:27 GMT
Bournemouth is the largest Conservative-dominated principal authority in the UK below county level (52 out of 54 councillors in Bournemouth are Conservatives) which is also not a "county unitary", with a population of approximately 186,000 people. Indeed, and probably the most populous with no Labour or Liberal Democrat councillors (including county councils)? I think it's fairly likely that a small number of Labour councillors will be elected in Bournemouth within the larger unitary next year (largely based on the swing to Labour in last year's GE). There will also almost certainly be Lib Dem councillors in the Poole part of the authority, and a chance of independents/localists in all three parts - but it'll probably be rather heavily Conservative altogether.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 13, 2018 21:05:13 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 13, 2018 22:13:40 GMT
A dendrogram for Yorkshire & Humber, 2017:- What the squee is a dendrogram? What do the numbers at the bottom refer to?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2018 10:24:34 GMT
A dendrogram for Yorkshire & Humber, 2017:- What the squee is a dendrogram? What do the numbers at the bottom refer to? Think a constituency being a leaf, a group of constituencies on a branch then all grouped together in a tree. Far better explanations elsewhere! The numbers relate to the constituencies (Yorkshire & Humber) in alphabetical order...Halifax being number 18. Here's South London for last year:-
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2018 10:32:30 GMT
For hullenedgeWhat on earth are they for? What is the deeper understanding that you now have about what happened?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2018 10:36:28 GMT
For hullenedgeWhat on earth are they for? What is the deeper understanding that you now have about what happened? Identifying groups of constituencies. Works better in larger groups where trends may be more difficult to spot. Also a 'fun way' to pass time whilst dog sitting on a windy day!
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