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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 8, 2018 13:25:33 GMT
From Pol Comms 1979 (an interview with Paul McKee):- (The late Mr McKee's obit www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/obituary-paul-mckee-1184513.html ) The October 1974 ITN Exit Poll was almost spot on - Lab 325 (23 gains from Con, one gain from Lib plus Lincoln), Con 271 (two gains from Lib), SNP 12 (five gains from Con), PC 3 (one gain from Lab) and Ind Lab 1. The BBC, as we know, were very very wrong with their poll. Of course these examples are not actually exit polls. The first proper exit polls were conducted in 1992 (all of which were wrong of course). Both the Scottish and EU referendums had 'on the day' polls in the style of the pre-1992 forecasts. In the former it was pretty accurate (54-46 No IIRC), in the latter there were at least two, both of which were wrong (one forecast 52-48 Remain and another 54-46 Remain).
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 8, 2018 17:00:57 GMT
A similar question is what are the best examples of seats where a party has regularly come close to winning a seat without ever actually winning it, or at least not winning it for a very long time. The Tories in Wakefield could be an example.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2018 17:35:47 GMT
The Liberals in Leominster - not won it since 1906 but close many times (including 3 figure majorities in 1945 and October 1974). One of those rare seats that saw a swing from Liberal to Conservative in 1983 and never been close since
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2018 18:19:01 GMT
A similar question is what are the best examples of seats where a party has regularly come close to winning a seat without ever actually winning it, or at least not winning it for a very long time. The Tories in Wakefield could be an example. The Conservatives in Great Grimsby got within 1,000 votes of winning in 1959, the 1977 by-election, 1983 and 2010. Labour have held Newcastle-under-Lyme since 1919 but came within under 800 votes of losing in the 1986 by-election, 2015 and 2017.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 8, 2018 18:50:12 GMT
A similar question is what are the best examples of seats where a party has regularly come close to winning a seat without ever actually winning it, or at least not winning it for a very long time. The Tories in Wakefield could be an example. The Conservatives in Great Grimsby got within 1,000 votes of winning in 1959, the 1977 by-election, 1983 and 2010. Labour have held Newcastle-under-Lyme since 1919 but came within under 800 votes of losing in the 1986 by-election, 2015 and 2017. Chorley, Faversham and Rossendale all marginal Labour 1945-70.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2018 18:58:18 GMT
The Conservatives in Great Grimsby got within 1,000 votes of winning in 1959, the 1977 by-election, 1983 and 2010. Labour have held Newcastle-under-Lyme since 1919 but came within under 800 votes of losing in the 1986 by-election, 2015 and 2017. Chorley, Faversham and Rossendale all marginal Labour 1945-70. Not held for long as Great Grimsby (73 years unbroken) and Newcastle-under-Lyme (99 years unbroken) and the majorities for Labour weren’t as low as often.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 8, 2018 19:03:48 GMT
Chorley, Faversham and Rossendale all marginal Labour 1945-70. Not held for long as Great Grimsby (73 years unbroken) and Newcastle-under-Lyme (99 years unbroken) and the majorities for Labour weren’t as low as often. Quite and especially for you...regional comparisons between 1955 and 2017:-
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Post by johnloony on Apr 8, 2018 20:02:40 GMT
The SDP and then the Liberal Democrats came within 1,000 votes of winning Islington South & Finsbury in 3/6 elections between 1983 and 2005. Are there any other examples of a party coming within 1,000 votes of winning a seat so often within the same period of time? Alan Beith (Liberal) won Berwick in a by-election in November 1973, then held it in 1974 and 1974. His majorities were 57, 443 and 73 respectively.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2018 20:54:06 GMT
David Heath also enjoyed (or not) three figure majorities in his first three successful elections in Somerton & Frome - 130 in 1997, 668 in 2001 and 812 in 2005. He then increase it to a dizzying 1817 in 2005 before retiring in 2010. The Conservatives then regained the seat with a majority of over 20,000
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2018 18:45:54 GMT
David Heath also enjoyed (or not) three figure majorities in his first three successful elections in Somerton & Frome - 130 in 1997, 668 in 2001 and 812 in 2005. He then increase it to a dizzying 1817 in 2005 before retiring in 2010. The Conservatives then regained the seat with a majority of over 20,000 They regained it in 2015.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2018 16:59:45 GMT
The Conservatives last won the popular vote in a General Election in London in 1992.
The Republicans last won the popular vote in New York City in a US Presidential Election in 1924.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 12, 2018 17:04:35 GMT
The Conservatives last won the popular vote in a General Election in London in 1992. The Republicans last won the popular vote in New York City in a US Presidential Election in 1924. See! We're not there yet. There is still hope.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2018 17:28:18 GMT
The Conservatives last won the popular vote in a General Election in London in 1992. The Republicans last won the popular vote in New York City in a US Presidential Election in 1924. See! We're not there yet. There is still hope. Unless Greater London is expanded to the point where all of it reaches the M25 then no.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 12, 2018 17:29:04 GMT
See! We're not there yet. There is still hope. Unless Greater London is expanded to the point where all of it reaches the M25 then no. Part of the hope.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2018 18:30:02 GMT
Chelsea voted Liberal in 1906.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 12, 2018 19:07:54 GMT
Chelsea voted Liberal in 1906. But it was Kensal Town what won it. (the constituency had a detached part north of Kensington; on its impact, see Pelling 'Social Geography of British Elections 1885-1910' p. 31)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2018 19:13:44 GMT
Chelsea voted Liberal in 1906. But it was Kensal Town what won it. (the constituency had a detached part north of Kensington; on its impact, see Pelling 'Social Geography of British Elections 1885-1910' p. 31) Ooh.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 13, 2018 8:55:34 GMT
Some figures from last year. A breakdown of the county/borough constituencies for England & Wales:- Splitting into Leave/Remain:- Another split into 2017 winner:- Plotting Con change vs UKIP change (sets of five or more seats):- A perfect trend line! 2015 figures for same sets:- Con change vs Lab change 2010-17:- Ignoring the outlier of the seven 'strong' Remain Tory Borough seats and another perfect trend.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 13, 2018 12:49:31 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Apr 13, 2018 12:58:31 GMT
Chelsea voted Liberal in 1906. But it was Kensal Town what won it. (the constituency had a detached part north of Kensington; on its impact, see Pelling 'Social Geography of British Elections 1885-1910' p. 31) Oh yes, I see what you mean.
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