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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 13:16:41 GMT
Was a marginal going in the 1979 election. Hardly - a 10% majority, nearly 6,000 in numerical terms. Only a marginal if Labour were headed for a 1997 level landslide. Anyway Hullenedg'es table is based on the Feb 74 election going into October as far as I can tell Oooh well. I wasn’t even alive in 1974.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 4, 2018 14:40:38 GMT
Hardly - a 10% majority, nearly 6,000 in numerical terms. Only a marginal if Labour were headed for a 1997 level landslide. Anyway Hullenedg'es table is based on the Feb 74 election going into October as far as I can tell Oooh well. I wasn’t even alive in 1974. I don't think any of us on here were alive in 1066, yet we all (I hope!) know that the Battle of Hastings took place in that year. The term 'marginal seat' does seem to have become more broadly used over time though. There was a time when (say) a 3,000 majority was described as 'solid'.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 14:52:59 GMT
There was a time when (say) a 3,000 majority was described as 'solid'. Now, even... if you live in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 15:06:29 GMT
Oooh well. I wasn’t even alive in 1974. I don't think any of us on here were alive in 1066, yet we all (I hope!) know that the Battle of Hastings took place in that year. The term 'marginal seat' does seem to have become more broadly used over time though. There was a time when (say) a 3,000 majority was described as 'solid'. I would say a majority of <10% makes a seat marginal. 10-20%: semi-marginal 20-30%: safe 30%+: very safe So while I would say that makes Hertfordshire SW a marginal going into the 1979 election - including it on a list of “battleground seats” with a majority of 12% going into the October 74 election seems strange.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2018 15:31:23 GMT
I don't think any of us on here were alive in 1066, yet we all (I hope!) know that the Battle of Hastings took place in that year. The term 'marginal seat' does seem to have become more broadly used over time though. There was a time when (say) a 3,000 majority was described as 'solid'. I would say a majority of <10% makes a seat marginal. 10-20%: semi-marginal 20-30%: safe 30%+: very safe So while I would say that makes Hertfordshire SW a marginal going into the 1979 election - including it on a list of “battleground seats” with a majority of 12% going into the October 74 election seems strange. It all depends on the context doesn't it. A seat held by Labour in 1983 by a majority of 10% or more is not likely to be marginal at the following election, likewise a seat held by the Conservatives by over 10% in 1997. Conversely, a seat held by a 20% margin by the Conservatives in 1983 or by Labour in 1997 may not automatically be considered safe. Also some seats are more elastic than others so you need to take that into account. Labour would have needed a further 5% swing in 1979 to gain Hertfordshire SW which would equate to a national lead of 13-14%. Its difficult to see where Labour would have got extra votes from as they had a solid core of support (principally in South Oxhey and one or two other areas of mainly council housing) but there were relatively few swing voters and during the 1970s there was substantial private house building going on which weakened the relative strength of the vote from South Oxhey etc (whereas you might have more of a case for saying a seat in a declining inner suburb of a large city with a Conservative majority of 10% in 1974 would be potentially marginal going into 1979)
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 4, 2018 17:17:22 GMT
I don't think any of us on here were alive in 1066, yet we all (I hope!) know that the Battle of Hastings took place in that year. The term 'marginal seat' does seem to have become more broadly used over time though. There was a time when (say) a 3,000 majority was described as 'solid'. I would say a majority of <10% makes a seat marginal. 10-20%: semi-marginal 20-30%: safe 30%+: very safe So while I would say that makes Hertfordshire SW a marginal going into the 1979 election - including it on a list of “battleground seats” with a majority of 12% going into the October 74 election seems strange. If there's anything we've learnt since circa 1997, it's that ultimately every seat is a potential marginal, a potential Tatton or Blaenau Gwent. The trick is to avoid major scandals or controversies which independent candidates, if strong enough, can occasionally thrive on. Also, we've seen majorities of 30%+ being overturned with just the usual three parties standing.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 17:44:32 GMT
If there's anything we've learnt since circa 1997, it's that ultimately every seat is a potential marginal, a potential Tatton or Blaenau Gwent. The trick is to avoid major scandals or controversies which independent candidates, if strong enough, can occasionally thrive on. Also, we've seen majorities of 30%+ being overturned with just the usual three parties standing. Certainly - the current safest Conservative seat, arguably, is Christchurch, where the winner had the party's highest percentage majority over the second placed candidate. Yet it was won by the Lib Dems in a landslide in the 1993 by-election.
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 4, 2018 17:58:31 GMT
If there's anything we've learnt since circa 1997, it's that ultimately every seat is a potential marginal, a potential Tatton or Blaenau Gwent. The trick is to avoid major scandals or controversies which independent candidates, if strong enough, can occasionally thrive on. Also, we've seen majorities of 30%+ being overturned with just the usual three parties standing. Certainly - the current safest Conservative seat, arguably, is Christchurch, where the winner had the party's highest percentage majority over the second placed candidate. Yet it was won by the Lib Dems in a landslide in the 1993 by-election. I'm speaking just of general elections really, but yes, that's a striking example.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 18:00:39 GMT
If there's anything we've learnt since circa 1997, it's that ultimately every seat is a potential marginal, a potential Tatton or Blaenau Gwent. The trick is to avoid major scandals or controversies which independent candidates, if strong enough, can occasionally thrive on. Also, we've seen majorities of 30%+ being overturned with just the usual three parties standing. Certainly - the current safest Conservative seat, arguably, is Christchurch, where the winner had the party's highest percentage majority over the second placed candidate. Yet it was won by the Lib Dems in a landslide in the 1993 by-election. Bethnal Green & Bow also.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 4, 2018 18:26:50 GMT
I had to list Herts SW et al to reach Liverpool Garston. That was a safe seat until lost in Feb'74.
Although it didn't happen that election could have seen a national swing to the Tories but they still would have lost their majority because of the disparity in regional swings. The 'Powell effect' may have cost them a couple of seats (if that). It was the Three-Day Week that decided that election. The issue galvanised Labour support especially in the Northern/ West Midlands marginals.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 4, 2018 22:23:50 GMT
John Horam defects from the SDP to the Conservatives on 28th February 1987. (At 8 mins 47 secs).
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Post by greenhert on Apr 4, 2018 22:30:00 GMT
Aldous enjoys a lot of local popularity, apparently. I notice former MPs with alliterative names like Bob Blizzard and David Drew got good results in 2010 and 2015. I wonder what would’ve happened in Stroud if Drew had not stood or if Blizzard had fought Waveney again. The Green vote would not have been squeezed so much, for a start. And the Liberal Democrat vote may have recovered a slight bit. At any rate Labour would certainly have not recaptured Stroud in 2017 without David Drew-his personal vote is that high, as was evident even in 1992!
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Post by johnloony on Apr 5, 2018 6:38:04 GMT
John Horam defects from the SDP to the Conservatives on 28th February 1987. (At 8 mins 47 secs). At 8:24 the banner incorrectly said "EEPTU" instead of "EETPU". Private Eye magazine sometimes referred to the union as "Eat Poo". At 10:57 David Icke, before he went mad.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 5, 2018 7:02:25 GMT
These are a bit of a flop (beggars can't be choosers with free software). Ternary diagrams never really 'caught on'. The Metropolitan North October 1974:- 1979:-
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 6, 2018 7:55:06 GMT
A selection of ITN election clips (narrowed down search because so many):- www.gettyimages.co.uk/videos/election-1979?collections=itn,itna&offlinecontent=include&phrase=election%201979&sort=best#license (The archive - videos/stats etc - is stored at Bradford Uni). The ITN 1979 Exit Poll - Con 349, Lab 257, Lib 12, SNP 2 (holding Western Isles and Argyll), PC 2 or 3 and SLP (Jim Sillars) 0 or 1. A swing of 6.1% from Lab to Con in the marginals.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 6, 2018 10:17:33 GMT
A selection of ITN election clips (narrowed down search because so many):- www.gettyimages.co.uk/videos/election-1979?collections=itn,itna&offlinecontent=include&phrase=election%201979&sort=best#license (The archive - videos/stats etc - is stored at Bradford Uni). The ITN 1979 Exit Poll - Con 349, Lab 257, Lib 12, SNP 2 (holding Western Isles and Argyll), PC 2 or 3 and SLP (Jim Sillars) 0 or 1. A swing of 6.1% from Lab to Con in the marginals. Thanks very much, I've been searching for ITN 1979 election clips for ages.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 6, 2018 16:03:34 GMT
John Horam defects from the SDP to the Conservatives on 28th February 1987. (At 8 mins 47 secs). That report also mentions the murders of two prostitutes (Rachel Applethwaite and Marina Monty) in which a Mexican diplomat (Guillermo Suarez) was a suspect. I wonder what happened in that case? I can't find anything substantial from googling.
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 6, 2018 20:59:11 GMT
A selection of ITN election clips (narrowed down search because so many):- www.gettyimages.co.uk/videos/election-1979?collections=itn,itna&offlinecontent=include&phrase=election%201979&sort=best#license (The archive - videos/stats etc - is stored at Bradford Uni). The ITN 1979 Exit Poll - Con 349, Lab 257, Lib 12, SNP 2 (holding Western Isles and Argyll), PC 2 or 3 and SLP (Jim Sillars) 0 or 1. A swing of 6.1% from Lab to Con in the marginals. Interesting that the ITN overestimated the Conservative overall majority, while the BBC underestimated it (from memory and without looking at the YouTube videos they hedged their bets between 318-335 Conservative seats).
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 6, 2018 21:31:09 GMT
From Pol Comms 1979 (an interview with Paul McKee):- (The late Mr McKee's obit www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/obituary-paul-mckee-1184513.html ) The October 1974 ITN Exit Poll was almost spot on - Lab 325 (23 gains from Con, one gain from Lib plus Lincoln), Con 271 (two gains from Lib), SNP 12 (five gains from Con), PC 3 (one gain from Lab) and Ind Lab 1. The BBC, as we know, were very very wrong with their poll.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2018 12:49:42 GMT
The SDP and then the Liberal Democrats came within 1,000 votes of winning Islington South & Finsbury in 3/6 elections between 1983 and 2005.
Are there any other examples of a party coming within 1,000 votes of winning a seat so often within the same period of time?
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