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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 10:29:54 GMT
Ashfield is the only Leave-voting seat in England where the combined Conservative-UKIP vote was higher in 2017 than 2015: 2015: 43.8% 2017: 45.5% ... Were there any remain-voting seats in England with a higher Con/UKIP share? Of course. Sheffield, Hallam had a 25% CON-UKIP vote in 2017 compared to about 20% in 2015.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 3, 2018 10:43:51 GMT
Ashfield is the only Leave-voting seat in England where the combined Conservative-UKIP vote was higher in 2017 than 2015: 2015: 43.8% 2017: 45.5% ... Were there any remain-voting seats in England with a higher Con/UKIP share? Lewes 2015: 48.7% 2017: 49.5%
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 10:48:53 GMT
... Were there any remain-voting seats in England with a higher Con/UKIP share? Lewes 2015: 48.7% 2017: 49.5% There were loads. But are there any other Leave-voting seats in it’s a higher CON-UKIP vote in 2017 than 2015? Not Bolsover, Mansfield or Penistone.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 3, 2018 10:53:14 GMT
Lewes 2015: 48.7% 2017: 49.5% There were loads. But are there any other Leave-voting seats in it’s a higher CON-UKIP vote in 2017 than 2015? Not Bolsover, Mansfield or Penistone. Trying to find another example. Some were very close.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 3, 2018 11:08:36 GMT
Lewes 2015: 48.7% 2017: 49.5% There were loads. But are there any other Leave-voting seats in it’s a higher CON-UKIP vote in 2017 than 2015? Not Bolsover, Mansfield or Penistone. Copeland 2015: 51.3% 2017: 51.6% Wyre Forest 2015: 61.4% 2017: 61.9% Waveney 2015: 56.8% 2017: 58.1% Burnley 2015: 30.8% 2017: 37.1% Redcar 2015: 34.6% 2017: 37.8%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 3, 2018 11:09:50 GMT
Good spot! It was primarily the by-election effect in this case, of course.....
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 3, 2018 11:25:28 GMT
Good spot! It was primarily the by-election effect in this case, of course..... I've included a few more. The one that seems to stick out is Waveney.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 11:47:38 GMT
Good spot! It was primarily the by-election effect in this case, of course..... I've included a few more. The one that seems to stick out is Waveney. Not when you consider Bob Blizzard didn’t stand again.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 3, 2018 11:54:00 GMT
I've included a few more. The one that seems to stick out is Waveney. Not when you consider Bob Blizzard didn’t stand again. This was the case with a lot of seats where the lab mp who lost their seat in 2010, contests it again in 2015 and doesn't stand in 2017.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 15:35:17 GMT
There were loads. But are there any other Leave-voting seats in it’s a higher CON-UKIP vote in 2017 than 2015? Not Bolsover, Mansfield or Penistone. Copeland 2015: 51.3% 2017: 51.6% Wyre Forest 2015: 61.4% 2017: 61.9% Waveney 2015: 56.8% 2017: 58.1% Burnley 2015: 30.8% 2017: 37.1% Redcar 2015: 34.6% 2017: 37.8% A few points to mention: Cope;and - By-election effect Were Forest - Dr Richard Taylor didn't stand for the first time since 1997. Waveney - No Bob Blizzard for the first time since 1997 Burnley & Redcar - Collapse of the Lib Dems from 2nd place in 2015. But you're right.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 3, 2018 15:38:49 GMT
Aldous enjoys a lot of local popularity, apparently.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 16:11:01 GMT
Aldous enjoys a lot of local popularity, apparently. I notice former MPs with alliterative names like Bob Blizzard and David Drew got good results in 2010 and 2015. I wonder what would’ve happened in Stroud if Drew had not stood or if Blizzard had fought Waveney again.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 16:30:50 GMT
Seats won by CON in Feb 1974 but LAB in 1979
Berwick & East Lothian East Dunbartonshire Glasgow, Cathcart Leicester South
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 3, 2018 16:38:33 GMT
Also Ipswich, Bolton West, Bury & Radcliffe
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 16:56:15 GMT
Also Ipswich, Bolton West, Bury & Radcliffe Unlike the other English examples, Leicester South saw a swing to Labour in 1979. It must’ve been one of the top targets that didn’t fall.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 3, 2018 20:05:57 GMT
There were 14 English seats (comparable boundaries) that saw a lower Liberal vote share in February 1974 than 1964:-
Huddersfield West (-10.4%) and Bolton West (-4.9%) are not a surprise. Orpington (-7.7%) assume Lib vote unwinding after 1970 defeat. Ipswich (-7.5%) - no Manuela Sykes and now a hyper-marginal. Tottenham (-4.7%), Rugby (-0.1%) and Stretford (-1%) - a mixed bag. Keighley (-3%) and Middleton & Prestwich (-2.4%) - both Labour gains in Feb '74. Three neighbouring seats Colne Valley (-1.4% but a Lib gain), High Peak (-1.9%) and Derbyshire West (-2.3%). Penrith & The Border (-4%)...a popular Willie. Finally Bodmin (-4.4%), which the Libs just managed to gain.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 4, 2018 12:03:12 GMT
Mean 2-party swing in England, February 1974 (regions and counties-ish...allowing for boundaries):- Battleground after the election (although I'm not 100% about a couple or three):- Snap elections bite!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2018 12:17:51 GMT
What's Hertfordshire SW doing there?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2018 12:58:34 GMT
What's Hertfordshire SW doing there? Was a marginal going in the 1979 election.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2018 13:07:34 GMT
What's Hertfordshire SW doing there? Was a marginal going in the 1979 election. Hardly - a 10% majority, nearly 6,000 in numerical terms. Only a marginal if Labour were headed for a 1997 level landslide. Anyway Hullenedg'es table is based on the Feb 74 election going into October as far as I can tell
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