Interesting electoral facts

[Deleted]

Top 20 largest percentage point increases in SDP share of the vote by constituency in which there was no SDP incumbent MP standing, 1983 general election:

(Interesting that Great Grimsby and Hertfordshire constituencies in particular feature in this list)

Blyth Valley: 25.9%
Stevenage: 23.9%
West Hertfordshire: 22.7%
Great Grimsby: 21.2%
Midlothian: 21.0%
Plymouth, Drake: 20.7%
City of Durham: 19.1%
Hertford & Stortford: 18.8%
Gloucestershire West: 18.7%
Welwyn Hatfield: 18.2%
Nuneaton: 18.1%
Kettering: 18.0%
Warrington, North: 17.8%
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth: 17.3%
Ross, Cromarty & Skye: 17.3%
Colchester, South and Maldon: 17.2%
Oxford, West & Abingdon: 17.2%
Coventry, North East: 17.1%
Cardiff, North: 17.0%
Clydebank & Milngavie: 17.0%

[Deleted]

SDP incumbent MPs in 1983 ranked by increase in share of the vote:

Robert Maclennan (Caithness and Sutherland): 52.0%
David Owen (Plymouth, Devonport): 36.5%
John Cartwright (Woolwich): 32.3%
Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler (North West Norfolk): 27.6%
Shirley Williams (Crosby): 27.3%
George Cunningham (Islington, South and Finsbury): 26.7%
Ian Wrigglesworth (Stockton, South): 25.9%
James Wellbeloved (Erith and Crayford): 25.4%
Roy Jenkins (Glasgow, Hillhead): 23.6%
Bob Mitchell (Southampton, Itchen): 21.0%
Bill Rodgers (Stockton, North): 20.2%
Ron Brown (Hackney, South and Shoreditch): 19.8%
Neville Sandelson (Hayes and Harlington): 19.7%
Edward Lyons (Bradford, West): 18.5%
Bruce Douglas-Mann (Mitcham and Morden): 18.5%
Mike Thomas (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East): 17.0%
Bryan Magee (Leyton): 16.6%
Jeffrey Thomas (Cardiff, West): 15.2%
John Roper (Worsley): 15.1%
Tom McNally (Stockport): 14.6%
John Grant (Islington, North): 13.8%
Tom Bradley (Leicester, East): 12.0%
Dickson Mabon (Renfrew West and Inverclyde): 11.2%
John Horam (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Central): 10.7%
Ednyfed Hudson Davies (Basingstoke): 10.2%
David Ginsberg (Dewsbury): 10.1%
Eric Ogden (Liverpool, West Derby): 9.8%
Tom Ellis (South West Clwyd): 8.3%
Richard Crawshaw (Liverpool, Broadgreen): 8.1%

[Tony Otim]

I assume your calculating changes from the notional liberal vote for 1979 rather than from the vote the incumbent achieved for their previous party?

[Philip Davies]

Aug 12, 2013 12:31:12 GMT swanarcadian said:

SDP incumbent MPs in 1983 ranked by increase in share of the vote:

Robert Maclennan (Caithness and Sutherland): 52.0%
David Owen (Plymouth, Devonport): 36.5%
John Cartwright (Woolwich): 32.3%
Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler (North West Norfolk): 27.6%
Shirley Williams (Crosby): 27.3%
George Cunningham (Islington, South and Finsbury): 26.7%
Ian Wrigglesworth (Stockton, South): 25.9%
James Wellbeloved (Erith and Crayford): 25.4%
Roy Jenkins (Glasgow, Hillhead): 23.6%
Bob Mitchell (Southampton, Itchen): 21.0%
Bill Rodgers (Stockton, North): 20.2%
Ron Brown (Hackney, South and Shoreditch): 19.8%
Neville Sandelson (Hayes and Harlington): 19.7%
Edward Lyons (Bradford, West): 18.5%
Bruce Douglas-Mann (Mitcham and Morden): 18.5%
Mike Thomas (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, East): 17.0%
Bryan Magee (Leyton): 16.6%
Jeffrey Thomas (Cardiff, West): 15.2%
John Roper (Worsley): 15.1%
Tom McNally (Stockport): 14.6%
John Grant (Islington, North): 13.8%
Tom Bradley (Leicester, East): 12.0%
Dickson Mabon (Renfrew West and Inverclyde): 11.2%
John Horam (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Central): 10.7%
Ednyfed Hudson Davies (Basingstoke): 10.2%
David Ginsberg (Dewsbury): 10.1%
Eric Ogden (Liverpool, West Derby): 9.8%
Tom Ellis (South West Clwyd): 8.3%
Richard Crawshaw (Liverpool, Broadgreen): 8.1%

I presume you are comparing the 1983 SDP result with the 1979 Liberal one.

[Pete Whitehead]

Some of those 'incumbents' are a bit ambiguous to say the least, in that they were sitting MPs, but not for the areas they stood in. Ednyfed Hudson Davies is the most glaring example of course having been MP for Caerphilly, but John Horam had been a Gateshead MP so Newwcastle Central was an entirely different area albeit a bit closer than Basingstoke is to Caerphilly. I think Richard Crawshaw had been MP for Toxteth and little if any of that went into Broad Green. I don;t know where Jeffrey Thomas was MP for, but it wasn't Cardiff West cos that was George Thomas's seat. And Dickson Mabon was MP for Greenock of course

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 12, 2013 12:28:06 GMT swanarcadian said:

Top 20 largest percentage point increases in SDP share of the vote by constituency in which there was no SDP incumbent MP standing, 1983 general election:

Annotated:

Blyth Valley: 25.9% - former Independent Labour MP Eddie Milne's votes
Stevenage: 23.9% - was in Shirley Williams' former constituency
West Hertfordshire: 22.7% - controversial Labour deselection of former MP Robin Corbett and selection of GLC left-winger Paul Boateng
Great Grimsby: 21.2% - possible Crosland loyalists defecting?
Midlothian: 21.0%
Plymouth, Drake: 20.7% - next door to David Owen's constituency
City of Durham: 19.1%
Hertford & Stortford: 18.8% - the remainder of Shirley Williams' former constituency
Gloucestershire West: 18.7% - the Labour MP defeated in 1979 had defected
Welwyn Hatfield: 18.2%
Nuneaton: 18.1%
Kettering: 18.0%
Warrington, North: 17.8% - most of the seat where Roy Jenkins stood in 1981

[Deleted]

Great Grimsby’s appearance in my non-incumbent list is interesting in that it is now being touted as a future UKIP gain, suggesting that it has had something of an independent, anti-establishment streak for some time - as well as any effect Crosland may have had. In the case of West Hertfordshire, Paul Boateng’s selection obviously had a negative effect but even so his drop in share of the vote was so staggering it throws some degree of doubt on the accuracy of the 1979 notional result there.

I am aware of MPs shuffling about from seat to seat. But the 1979 notional results were all the information I had to go on. It’s too bad for those incumbent MPs who had to move. Being deprived of my broadband connection for almost a fortnight meant resorting to my old ways of writing and typing out ambigious, pointless and futile lists using various political books I have accumulated over the years.

[euan]

Great Grimsby obviously has a long fishing heritage, the effects of the CFP on that may have contributed towards its having a notably Eurosceptic Labour MP, and the Tory (Victoria Ayling if I remember right?) last time who ran him close subsequently defected to UKIP - I suspect that's part of why it's being touted as a possible UKIP one, simply that it has quite a bit of Eurosceptic heritage already.

Don't know if Austin Mitchell plans on standing again, though honestly wouldn't want to bet against him winning if he did.

As to the SDP increase there - if memory serves Andrew de Freitas has been the Liberal/Alliance/Lib Dem candidate for a very long time there, could be partly down to his having become a familiar presence by then!

[The Bishop]

Actually the 1983 (and '87) SDP candidate in Great Grimsby was Mitchell's former agent, who apparently took quite a few members with him.

AM mentions this in his still very readable (if sometimes, erm, controversial) tome "Four Years in the Death of the Labour Party".

[euan]

Looks like it, in 1979 Caithness and Sutherland elected a Labour MP by the name of Robert Maclennan with a majority of around 2500, with the SNP in third place. He defected in 1981 to the new SDP, more than doubled his majority while taking large chunks out of the Conservative, Labour, and SNP votes.

Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caithness_and_Sutherland_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

[Tony Otim]

Caithness & Sutherland is a strange seat for the Liberals not to have contested in 79. They'd won it in 64 and had got well above 20% in both 74 elections, so would have comfortably held their deposit. As such the 79 results for all 3 other parties should be seen as a bit above what they might otherwise have achieved.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Several of these were fighting seats that were substantially different from their old ones, or (in the cases of Mabon, Hudson Davies and Ellis) completely different. Crawshaw was outpolled by a candidate from the local Liberal association which had refused to have him as a candidate.

PS: Not South West Clwyd. Always Clwyd South West.

[Pete Whitehead]

Ellis's seat wasn't completely different - quite a large chunk of Clwyd SW (I think perhaps a majority) originated from his Wrexham seat

[The Bishop]

A majority in area perhaps, but not population I would have thought.

[Pete Whitehead]

No more likely the other way around. A majority of the area I would have thought came from Denbigh but that not containing much population outside of Denbigh itself. There was a small (in population terms) area taken from Merionetha round Corwen but I think most of the population/electorate came from areas like Chirk and Ruabon which were in Wrexham. I don't have the figures to hand but will check later

[Sibboleth]

Aug 12, 2013 12:49:45 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don;t know where Jeffrey Thomas was MP for, but it wasn't Cardiff West cos that was George Thomas's seat.

Abertillery, which was divided between Blaenau Gwent and Islwyn in the boundary review.

[Sibboleth]

Aug 13, 2013 12:23:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

No more likely the other way around. A majority of the area I would have thought came from Denbigh but that not containing much population outside of Denbigh itself. There was a small (in population terms) area taken from Merionetha round Corwen but I think most of the population/electorate came from areas like Chirk and Ruabon which were in Wrexham. I don't have the figures to hand but will check later

Everything east of Llangollen came from Wrexham.

[No Offence Alan]

Aug 13, 2013 12:05:16 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Several of these were fighting seats that were substantially different from their old ones, or (in the cases of Mabon, Hudson Davies and Ellis) completely different. Crawshaw was outpolled by a candidate from the local Liberal association which had refused to have him as a candidate.

PS: Not South West Clwyd. Always Clwyd South West.

Unfortunately for Mabon, the seat was not so different that the Inverclyde Liberals who had been trying to get rid of him for 25 years allegedly kept up their habit and voted for Anna McCurley instead.

IMHO, one of the biggest mistakes the SDP made was to not enforce any quality control over the defecting MPs and accepted all of them, even the crap ones.

[Sibboleth]

Not as big a mistake as setting up the party in the first place.

[The Bishop]

Aug 13, 2013 17:50:09 GMT No Offence Alan said:

IMHO, one of the biggest mistakes the SDP made was to not enforce any quality control over the defecting MPs and accepted all of them, even the crap ones

At least they drew the line at Michael O'Halloran......eventually.