|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2024 10:36:41 GMT
Possible records broken at the GE: Most seats changing hands - 303 Lowest conservative share Lowest cons number of seats Largest con-lab swing Most new MPs - 335Record definitely not broken: Most sitting MPs defeated (1931 record still intact) Is this entirely new MPs, so not including retreads? Yes. There were 15 retreads as well, making 350. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,139 
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 20, 2024 15:51:46 GMT
While we're on the topic of past elections, is there a theoretical Tory target list for 2001 anywhere? I'd like to compare it with the 2028/2029 battleground list and figure out what kind of majorities they'd need to overturn in order to become the largest single party, and to win a majority government, to see if things really are worse than in 1997.
Of course the other factor is that the Conservatives won't be starting from second place in as many constituencies next time. It's that aspect, rather than number of seats or national share of the vote, which might mean 2024 ultimately comes to be seen as a more damaging defeat.
|
|
|
|
Post by mick745 on Jul 20, 2024 16:10:49 GMT
While we're on the topic of past elections, is there a theoretical Tory target list for 2001 anywhere? I'd like to compare it with the 2028/2029 battleground list and figure out what kind of majorities they'd need to overturn in order to become the largest single party, and to win a majority government, to see if things really are worse than in 1997. Of course the other factor is that the Conservatives won't be starting from second place in as many constituencies next time. It's that aspect, rather than number of seats or national share of the vote, which might mean 2024 ultimately comes to be seen as a more damaging defeat. I think there was an appendix listing these in Rallings and Thrasher "Official Results" book from that election. |
|
|
|
Post by swingometer on Jul 20, 2024 16:19:12 GMT
While we're on the topic of past elections, is there a theoretical Tory target list for 2001 anywhere? I'd like to compare it with the 2028/2029 battleground list and figure out what kind of majorities they'd need to overturn in order to become the largest single party, and to win a majority government, to see if things really are worse than in 1997. Of course the other factor is that the Conservatives won't be starting from second place in as many constituencies next time. It's that aspect, rather than number of seats or national share of the vote, which might mean 2024 ultimately comes to be seen as a more damaging defeat. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,139
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 20, 2024 17:29:42 GMT
While we're on the topic of past elections, is there a theoretical Tory target list for 2001 anywhere? I'd like to compare it with the 2028/2029 battleground list and figure out what kind of majorities they'd need to overturn in order to become the largest single party, and to win a majority government, to see if things really are worse than in 1997. Of course the other factor is that the Conservatives won't be starting from second place in as many constituencies next time. It's that aspect, rather than number of seats or national share of the vote, which might mean 2024 ultimately comes to be seen as a more damaging defeat. Thanks! I recall seeing a snazzier version of that board behind Peter Snow on the TV coverage but as I've mentioned before, didn't get online at home until two months later so I didn't know there was a web page with the same information. So, extrapolating from that, we can see the seat the Tories would've needed in order to become the largest party in 2001 was Leeds North East (majority just shy of 7,000) and in order to win outright, Amber Valley (majority of a little over 11 and a half thousand). The notion that they might win back the former now feels absurd. For the next general election, according to ElectionPolling.co.uk - which sorts by percentage and not by raw majority like the BBC did 23 years ago - the seat needed to become the largest party could be, erm, here (majority just shy of 5,000 but starting from third place) and in order to win outright, Guildford (majority under 8 and a half thousand). Yes, it's all a bit back-of-an-envelope and makes too many assumptions about uniform swing, but on this basis alone, things aren't looking as bad for the Tories as they were in 1997. Although we know from 2001 that they of course got nowhere near an immediate return to power. |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,642
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 20, 2024 17:51:31 GMT
Thanks! I recall seeing a snazzier version of that board behind Peter Snow on the TV coverage but as I've mentioned before, didn't get online at home until two months later so I didn't know there was a web page with the same information. So, extrapolating from that, we can see the seat the Tories would've needed in order to become the largest party in 2001 was Leeds North East (majority just shy of 7,000) and in order to win outright, Amber Valley (majority of a little over 11 and a half thousand). The notion that they might win back the former now feels absurd. For the next general election, according to ElectionPolling.co.uk - which sorts by percentage and not by raw majority like the BBC did 23 years ago - the seat needed to become the largest party could be, erm, here (majority just shy of 5,000 but starting from third place) and in order to win outright, Guildford (majority under 8 and a half thousand). Yes, it's all a bit back-of-an-envelope and makes too many assumptions about uniform swing, but on this basis alone, things aren't looking as bad for the Tories as they were in 1997. Although we know from 2001 that they of course got nowhere near an immediate return to power. I worked out a week or so ago that the seat Lab needed to hold in 2001 for an overall majority of 1 had a majority in 1997 of 7100 where as in 2028/29 the seat they need to hold for a majority of 1 has a majority in 2024 of 3400. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,139
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 20, 2024 18:25:58 GMT
Thanks! I recall seeing a snazzier version of that board behind Peter Snow on the TV coverage but as I've mentioned before, didn't get online at home until two months later so I didn't know there was a web page with the same information. So, extrapolating from that, we can see the seat the Tories would've needed in order to become the largest party in 2001 was Leeds North East (majority just shy of 7,000) and in order to win outright, Amber Valley (majority of a little over 11 and a half thousand). The notion that they might win back the former now feels absurd. For the next general election, according to ElectionPolling.co.uk - which sorts by percentage and not by raw majority like the BBC did 23 years ago - the seat needed to become the largest party could be, erm, here (majority just shy of 5,000 but starting from third place) and in order to win outright, Guildford (majority under 8 and a half thousand). Yes, it's all a bit back-of-an-envelope and makes too many assumptions about uniform swing, but on this basis alone, things aren't looking as bad for the Tories as they were in 1997. Although we know from 2001 that they of course got nowhere near an immediate return to power. I worked out a week or so ago that the seat Lab needed to hold in 2001 for an overall majority of 1 had a majority in 1997 of 7100 where as in 2028/29 the seat they need to hold for a majority of 1 has a majority in 2024 of 3400. In 2001 the House of Commons had 659 seats, so winning 330 meant a majority of 1. In 2028/29 it will presumably still have 650 seats, so winning 326 means a majority of 2. Your majority figures seem a little on the low side, but the point remains the same and the direction of travel is clear: the raw majorities the Tories need to overturn next time are not as large as the uphill task was in 2001, but still a pretty monumental ask in a single GE. |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,642
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Jul 20, 2024 18:39:08 GMT
I worked out a week or so ago that the seat Lab needed to hold in 2001 for an overall majority of 1 had a majority in 1997 of 7100 where as in 2028/29 the seat they need to hold for a majority of 1 has a majority in 2024 of 3400. In 2001 the House of Commons had 659 seats, so winning 330 meant a majority of 1. In 2028/29 it will presumably still have 650 seats, so winning 326 means a majority of 2. Your majority figures seem a little on the low side, but the point remains the same and the direction of travel is clear: the raw majorities the Tories need to overturn next time are not as large as the uphill task was in 2001, but still a pretty monumental ask in a single GE. In 2001 the Lab losing their majority seat was Keighley ( maj. 7132 or 13.8%), next time it is Folkestone and Hythe ( maj. 3729 or 8.6%) |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,139
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 20, 2024 20:07:25 GMT
In 2001 the House of Commons had 659 seats, so winning 330 meant a majority of 1. In 2028/29 it will presumably still have 650 seats, so winning 326 means a majority of 2. Your majority figures seem a little on the low side, but the point remains the same and the direction of travel is clear: the raw majorities the Tories need to overturn next time are not as large as the uphill task was in 2001, but still a pretty monumental ask in a single GE. In 2001 the Lab losing their majority seat was Keighley (maj. 7,132 or 13.8%), next time it is Folkestone and Hythe (maj. 3,729 or 8.6%) Ah, you're using a Lab defence list rather than a Tory target one. I see now, and that probably makes more sense actually. |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Jul 20, 2024 20:22:41 GMT
In 2001 the House of Commons had 659 seats, so winning 330 meant a majority of 1. In 2028/29 it will presumably still have 650 seats, so winning 326 means a majority of 2. Your majority figures seem a little on the low side, but the point remains the same and the direction of travel is clear: the raw majorities the Tories need to overturn next time are not as large as the uphill task was in 2001, but still a pretty monumental ask in a single GE. In 2001 the Lab losing their majority seat was Keighley ( maj. 7132 or 13.8%), next time it is Folkestone and Hythe ( maj. 3729 or 8.6%) Poignant given that Folkestone was a gain and Keighley the most surprising Tory hold |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,043
|
Post by nyx on Jul 20, 2024 20:34:30 GMT
Possible records broken at the GE: Most seats changing hands - 303 Lowest conservative share Lowest cons number of seats Largest con-lab swing Most new MPs - 335Record definitely not broken: Most sitting MPs defeated (1931 record still intact) Is this entirely new MPs, so not including retreads? Yes. 335 entirely new, 300 MPs who were in parliament before the election, and 15 returning former MPs. Those fifteen are one SNP (Gethins), two Lib Dem (George and Munt), and twelve Labour (D. Alexander, H. Alexander, Creagh, Dakin, Frith, Nash, Norris, Onn, Platt, Reynolds, Snell, Turley) |
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Jul 20, 2024 21:57:01 GMT
Is this entirely new MPs, so not including retreads? Yes. 335 entirely new, 300 MPs who were in parliament before the election, and 15 returning former MPs. Those fifteen are one SNP (Gethins), two Lib Dem (George and Munt), and twelve Labour (D. Alexander, H. Alexander, Creagh, Dakin, Frith, Nash, Norris, Onn, Platt, Reynolds, Snell, Turley) Oh god Snell's back - that passed me by until now. |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jul 20, 2024 22:59:44 GMT
Seats where each party secured the most total votes:
Labour:
Tooting 29,209
Hornsey and Friern Barnet 28,535
Lewisham West and East Dulwich 27,406
Dulwich and West Norwood 27,356
Hove and Portslade 27,209
Walthamstow 27,172
Sefton Central 26,772
Bootle 26,729
Liverpool Walton 26,032
Beckenham and Penge 25,753
Stroud 25,607
Lewisham North 25,467
Liverpool West Derby 25,302
Rushcliffe 25,291
Mitcham and Morden 25,085
Edinburgh South 24,976
Hackney South and Shoreditch 24,724
Wallasey 24,674
Macclesfield 24,672
York Central 24,537
(fascinating the number of seats there that would've been considered marginal not all that long ago: Beckenham, Hove, Stroud, Rushcliffe, Macc! rather than a glut of seats in Merseyside, M/cr, Sheffield etc as would've been the case a decade or so ago)
Conservative:
Harrow East 25,466
Godalming and Ash 23,293
Richmond and Northallerton 23,059
Arundel and South Downs 22,001
Hertsmere 21,451
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner 21,366
Rutland and Stamford 21,248
Newark 20,968
Wetherby and Easingwold 20,597
North East Hampshire 20,544
Tonbridge 20,517
Stockton West 20,372
Hexham 20,275
Weald of Kent 20,202
Mid Buckinghamshire 20,150
Mid Dorset and North Poole 20,090
North Bedfordshire 19,981
Droitwich and Evesham 19,975
Tatton 19,956
Chester South and Eddisbury 19,905
[Top 5 included the incumbent Leader, Chancellor and Deputy Leader]
Liberal Democrats:
Westmorland and Lonsdale 31,061
Twickenham 30,185
Winchester 29,939
St Albans 29,222
Richmond Park 28,528
Esher and Walton 28,315
Harpenden and Berkhamsted 27,282
West Dorset 26,999
Lewes 26,895
Edinburgh West 26,645
North Shropshire 26,214
Kingston and Surbiton 25,870
Wokingham 25,743
South Cambridgeshire 25,704
Chichester 25,540
Cheltenham 25,076
St Ives 25,033
North Cornwall 24,904
Wimbledon 24,790
Chesham and Amersham 24,422
(only 2 seats where the vote exceeded 30,000 were for Lib Dem candidates)
Reform:
Clacton 21,225
Ashfield 17,062
Boston and Skegness 15,520
Great Yarmouth 14,385
Hornchurch and Upminster 13,317
Makerfield 12,803
Maldon 12,468
Castle Point 12,234
Amber Valley 12,192
South Basildon and East Thurrock 12,178
Rayleigh and Wickford 12,135
Louth and Horncastle 11,935
Brentwood and Ongar 11,751
Houghton and Sunderland South 11,668
Barnsley South 11,651
Cannock Chase 11,570
Dover and Deal 11,355
Basildon and Billericay 11,354
Braintree 11,346
Sherwood Forest 11,320
(interestingly only 3 of these seats in The North, whereas 11 seats in the South, with 6 in the Midlands)
Greens:
Brighton Pavilion 28,809
Bristol Central 24,539
North Herefordshire 21,736
Waveney Valley 20,467
Bristol East 14,142
Bristol South 10,855
Huddersfield 10,568
Hackney South and Shoreditch 9,987
Lewisham North 9,685
Hackney North and Stoke Newington 9,275
Walthamstow 9,176
Lewisham West and East Dulwich 9,009
Birkenhead 8,670
Dulwich and West Norwood 8,567
Bristol North West 8,389
Sheffield Central 8,283
Norwich South 8,245
Manchester Withington 8,084
Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven 7,997
Bristol North East 7,837
(5 of the 20 seats in Bristol)
SNP:
Angus and Perthshire Glens 19,142
Perth and Kinross-shire 18,928
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire 15,999
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber 15,582
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry 15,581
Dundee Central 15,544
Stirling and Strathallan 15,462
Aberdeen South 15,213
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh 15,075
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey 14,961
Livingston 14,796
Aberdeen North 14,533
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch 14,369
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 13,987
Kilmarnock and Loudoun 13,936
East Kilbride and Strathaven 13,625
Glasgow South 13,542
Gordon and Buchan 13,540
Edinburgh North and Leith 13,537
East Renfrewshire 13,514
(Perth seems to be the new hub of SNP support?)
Plaid Cymru:
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 21,788
Ceredigion Preseli 21,738
Caerfyrddin 15,520
Ynys Mon 10,590
Llanelli 9,511
Cardiff West 9,423
Bangor Aberconwy 9,112
Caerphilly 8,119
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr 5,667
Neath and Swansea East 5,350
Pontypridd 5,275
Rhondda and Ogmore 5,198
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare 4,768
Aberafan Maesteg 4,719
Cardiff North 4,669
Wrexham 4,138
Swansea West 4,105
Gower 3,942
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney 3,844
Clwyd East 3,733
(only 4 seats where they secured over 10,000 votes)
|
|
|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 21, 2024 2:31:08 GMT
Highest ever LD votes...?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2024 11:02:52 GMT
A list for Independents/Others might also be interesting - I wonder how many (if any) of the top 20 would have been in "non-Muslim" seats (list topper Jeremy Corbyn aside)
|
|
|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 21, 2024 11:33:32 GMT
Highest Independent votes
Islington North 24120
North Down 20913
Dewsbury and Batley 15641
Ilford North 15119
Leicester South 14739
Bethnal Green and Stepney 14207
Birmingham Perry Barr 13303
Chingford and Woodford Green 12445
Birmingham Ladywood 12137
Slough 11019
Bradford West 11017
Blackburn 10518
Ilford South 9643
Preston 8715
Oldham W, etc 8256
Bradford East 7909
Walsall Bloxwich 7600
Holborn St P 7312
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2024 12:04:21 GMT
Workers Party have at least two who would get into that list (11587 in Rochdale and 10582 in Birmingham Yardley) Any others?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 12:14:49 GMT
Hodge Hill
|
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Jul 21, 2024 12:27:24 GMT
All parties ranked by maximum vote
Liberal Democrat 31061
Labour 29209
Green 28809
Labour and Co-operative 27172
Conservative 25466
Speaker 25238
Sinn Fein 24844
Independent 24120
Plaid Cymru 21788
Democratic Unionist Party 21642
Social Democratic and Labour Party 21345
Reform UK 21225
Ulster Unionist Party 20273
Scottish National Party 19142
Alliance 18618
Traditional Unionist Voice 11642
Workers Party of Britain 11587
Independent Network 11019
Newham Independents Party 7180
Ashfield Independents 6276
Scottish Green Party 5554
People Before Profit Alliance 5048
One Leicester 3681
Liverpool Community Independents 3294
Swale Independents 3238
Linconshire Independents 3032
UK Independence Party 2638
Democracy for Chorley 2424
Independent Oxford Alliance 2381
Liberal 2336
English Democrats 2036
Social Democratic Party 1960
South Devon Alliance 1924
The North East Party 1581
The Yorkshire Party 1363
Consensus 1289
Kingston Independent Residents Group 1177
British Democratic Party 1160
Alba Party 1132
Aontú 1047
Propel 1041
English Constitution Party 1007
Independent Alliance (Kent) 926
True & Fair Party 845
Rejoin EU 821
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 797
Portsmouth Independent Party 733
Heritage Party 708
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 669
Cross-Community Labour Alternative 624
Putting Crewe First, Independent Residents Group 588
Hampshire Independents 571
Shared Ground 568
Women's Equality Party 544
Scottish Socialist Party 541
Monster Raving Loony Party 529
Scottish Family Party 505
Taking The Initiative Party 503
Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 502
Christian Party, Proclaiming Christ's Lordship 496
Socialist Labour Party 496
Climate Party 489
Confelicity 488
Party of Women 482
Christian Peoples Alliance Party 460
British Unionist Party B.U.P. 456
Animal Welfare Party 410
Blue Revolution 397
Independence for Scotland Party 382
Chesterfield And North Derbyshire Independents (CANDI) 363
Workers Revolutionary Party 355
The Mitre TW9 349
Transform Party 331
Freedom Alliance 324
Communist Party of Britain 309
Count Binface Party 308
Social Justice party 285
The Peace Party 276
Rebooting Democracy 265
The Yoruba Party in the UK 261
Alliance for Green Socialism 259
Scottish Libertarian Party 259
National Health Action Party 247
Fairer Voting Party 240
Sovereignty 231
Common Good Party 215
Stockport Fights Austerity No To Cuts 193
New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership 186
Socialist Equality Party 178
Save Us Now 170
Communist League Election Campaign 167
Volt United Kingdom 163
UK Voice 150
Communist Future 131
The Socialist Party of Great Britain 122
Psychedelic Movement 99
The Common People 91
Libertarian Party 69
Independents for Direct Democracy 45
|
|
|
|
Post by uthacalthing on Jul 21, 2024 20:00:24 GMT
All parties ranked by maximum vote Scottish Libertarian Party 259 Libertarian Party 69 Scotland leading the way |
|
