Interesting electoral facts

[mick745]

Sitting MPs defeated at general elections since 1945

1945 - 174
1950 - 84
1951 - 25
1955 - 19
1959 - 33
1964 - 63
1966 - 51
1970 - 78
1974f - 52
1974o - 29
1979 - 65
1983 - 63
1987 - 41
1992 - 60
1997 - 133
2001 - 21
2005 - 50
2010 - 76
2015 - 92
2017 - 67
2019 - 79
2024 - 218

[hullenedge]

Very technical but via regression analysis this chap's top and bottom Tory performances:-

[The Bishop]

Jul 9, 2024 2:45:58 GMT @weld said:

In London, Labour's margin was sub-97 in Bexleyheath, Hendon, and, I think, Brent West and Uxbridge & South Ruislip (notional). They lost Harrow East, of course. 

I thought the addition of South Ruislip made it harder for them to win? Or perhaps changes elsewhere compensated for that.

[batman]

Not really. It was compensated for by the loss of Ickenham & Harefield although most of that is now back in the constituency again (replacing parts of Eastcote & Ruislip Manor). 

[hullenedge]

FPTP 2024 behaved more like the FPTP element of MMP elections:-

Interesting but could be a one-off rather than a future pattern.

[Deleted]

2015 saw Orkney & Shetland vote differently. It might have happened in '45 and '50 too. SNP won Shetland in 2015, but it reverted to type in 2017 and thereafter.

[manchesterman]

Just some data I threw together in relation to seats won by decile of vote share, given that vote share was much discussed in the post-election analysis.

Interesting how efficient the Lib Dem (and Green) vote share was, given the huge number of seats where they polled below 10%.
Labour however picked up almost 300 seats where they polled over 40% - a significant target under FPTP -  but the Tories only 20 seats.

	>60%	50-59.99%	40-49.99%	30-39.99%	20-29.99%	10-19.99%	<10%
Labour	7	65	216	160	80	53	50
Conservative	0	1	19	199	176	146	94
Reform	0	0	2	8	139	314	146
Liberal Dems	1	17	36	24	21	90	442
Greens	0	2	2	1	10	86	528
SNP	0	0	2	31	21	3	0
Plaid Cymru	0	1	1	2	4	9	15

[Deleted]

It goes without saying, but Jeremy Corbyn is the first non-Labour MP to represent Islington North since a Conservative won the seat in 1935. Islington North was one of several red wall losses for Labour, having had a Labour MP since the UK last had a Cambridge-educated Prime Minister (Baldwin in 1937) - 87 years of Labour representation came to an end last week. Yes, I know Corbyn is labour even if he isn't Labour, but I saw an opportunity to score a political point and I took it.

Speaking to the other losses to left of Labour (at least on foreign affairs) constituencies, I think Batley & Dewsbury, had it existed, would've voted Labour through the 80s when Elizabeth Peacock held Batley & Spen. I would need Pete Whitehead to confirm whether Dewsbury & Batley was Labour on current boundaries since 1935. 

Re: Birmingham, Perry Barr, I believe that would've been Tory on its current boundaries in 1935 and 1964? I know the Lib Dems did OK there in 2005, but didn't win. 

Leicester South I guess on the current map it woud've gone to Derek Spencer (C) in 1983? It was a seven vote lead so colour me sceptical. 

Blackburn, and Pete Whitehead can confirm on the current lines, was Labour from 1945 onwards I think, so 79 years with Labour before 2024. 

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 12, 2024 4:12:51 GMT @weld said:

It goes without saying, but Jeremy Corbyn is the first non-Labour MP to represent Islington North since a Conservative won the seat in 1935. Islington North was one of several red wall losses for Labour, having had a Labour MP since the UK last had a Cambridge-educated Prime Minister (Baldwin in 1937) - 87 years of Labour representation came to an end last week. Yes, I know Corbyn is labour even if he isn't Labour, but I saw an opportunity to score a political point and I took it.

Speaking to the other losses to left of Labour (at least on foreign affairs) constituencies, I think Batley & Dewsbury, had it existed, would've voted Labour through the 80s when Elizabeth Peacock held Batley & Spen. I would need Pete Whitehead to confirm whether Dewsbury & Batley was Labour on current boundaries since 1935. [1]

Re: Birmingham, Perry Barr, I believe that would've been Tory on its current boundaries in 1935 and 1964?[2] I know the Lib Dems did OK there in 2005, but didn't win. 

Leicester South I guess on the current map it woud've gone to Derek Spencer (C) in 1983? It was a seven vote lead so colour me sceptical. [3]

Blackburn, and Pete Whitehead can confirm on the current lines, was Labour from 1945 onwards I think, so 79 years with Labour before 2024. 

[1] Possibly since 1918.  The Liberals won Dewsbury in 1931 in a straight fight with Labour and the Conservatives won a straight fight with Labour in Batley & Morley.  The fact that Labour were the only party on the ballot across the whole seat would probably put them notionally ahead then, though of course had the seat existed then and been fought on these boundaries, they would almost certainly have lost it (probably to a Liberal)

[2] The current Perry Barr boundaries bear much closer resemblance to the Handsworth seat of that vintage (more or less all of that seat plus just Perry Barr itself). As such I think it would have been fairly consistently Conservative held up to and including 1970.

[3] Relative to the old seat it lost Aylestone and gained part of Evington.  Pretty sure that would have wiped out the Conservative lead in 1983 (and Feb 1974) - probably would have been Conservative last in 1970. I'm pretty sure that absent those boundary changes, Ashworth would have held on as there are very few muslims in Aylestone.

[john07]

Jul 12, 2024 4:12:51 GMT @weld said:

It goes without saying, but Jeremy Corbyn is the first non-Labour MP to represent Islington North since a Conservative won the seat in 1935. Islington North was one of several red wall losses for Labour, having had a Labour MP since the UK last had a Cambridge-educated Prime Minister (Baldwin in 1937) - 87 years of Labour representation came to an end last week. Yes, I know Corbyn is labour even if he isn't Labour, but I saw an opportunity to score a political point and I took it. 

Islington North had a SDP MP, Michael O’Halloran, from 1981 to 1983. He failed to win SDP selection for the next election and defected again as Independent Labour.

[Deleted]

Jul 12, 2024 14:53:17 GMT john07 said:

Jul 12, 2024 4:12:51 GMT @weld said:

It goes without saying, but Jeremy Corbyn is the first non-Labour MP to represent Islington North since a Conservative won the seat in 1935. Islington North was one of several red wall losses for Labour, having had a Labour MP since the UK last had a Cambridge-educated Prime Minister (Baldwin in 1937) - 87 years of Labour representation came to an end last week. Yes, I know Corbyn is labour even if he isn't Labour, but I saw an opportunity to score a political point and I took it. 

Islington North had a SDP MP, Michael O’Halloran, from 1981 to 1983. He failed to win SDP selection for the next election and defected again as Independent Labour.

Scab.

[hullenedge]

Retention rates for the Conservatives in the (HoC calculated) Index of Deprivation quintiles:-

1st (most deprived) lost all 20 seats
2nd held seven out of 49 (their one gain in this quintile)
3rd held 13 out of 83
4th held 39 out of 96
5th (least deprived) held 61 out of 124

Losses:-
1st (18 to Lab, two to Reform)
2nd (38 to Lab, two to Reform, two to LD)
3rd (58 to Lab, nine to LD, two to Plaid, one to Reform)
4th (44 to Lab, 10 to LD, two to Greens, one to SNP)
5th (39 to LD, 24 to Lab).

[Deleted]

If you are unsure whether North East Derbyshire is moving rightwards, look at how Labour's majority was identical in percentage terms in 2015 and 2024 - 3.9%.

[manchesterman]

Whilst the Putney result is under a cloud at the moment (see Putney thread on here), per the official declaration the vote shares for the top 2 parties for Putney & Battersea make interesting reading:

Putney - Lab 49.0%, Con 23.4%
Battersea - Lab 48.8%, Con 23.2%

So the percentage margin of victory in both of these Wandsworth seats was the same - 25.6%

[johnloony]

Jul 17, 2024 19:40:07 GMT manchesterman said:

Whilst the Putney result is under a cloud at the moment (see Putney thread on here), per the official declaration the vote shares for the top 2 parties for Putney & Battersea make interesting reading:

Putney - Lab 49.0%, Con 23.4%
Battersea - Lab 48.8%, Con 23.2%

So the percentage margin of victory in both of these Wandsworth seats was the same - 25.6%

That reminds me of the earlier-mentioned results of two neighbouring constituencies in 1979:

Holland with Boston
Richard Body (Conservative) 35,440 (55.52%)
M. Fox (Labour) 17,908 (28.06%)
J. Wright (Liberal) 10,480 (16.42%)

Grantham
Douglas Hogg (Conservative) 36,697 (55.52%)
V. Bell (Labour) 18,547 (28.06%)
W.T. Bailey (Liberal) 10,852 (16.42%)

[batman]

I haven't learnt all the new MPs yet but it's already clear that the number of MPs whose surnames are the same as current constituencies has increased. Foremost amongst these is of course Father of the House Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough, C), and also re-elected was Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, LD). Although Angela Crawley retired, and Alexander Stafford was defeated, the latter's brother was elected for Farnham & Bordon (C), and was joined by, so far, Josh Newbury (Cannock Chase, Lab), Emily Darlington (Milton Keynes C, Lab) and Peter Bedford (Mid-Leicestershire, C). It's possible to argue that one could also include Claire Hazelgrove (Filton & Bradley Stoke, Lab) but Lincoln Jopp (Spelthorne, C) does not qualify. Please let me know if I've forgotten anyone. Of course, for many years there was a Stafford & Stone constituency. EDIT: I had forgotten that Sir Edward no longer qualifies as the constituency is now Leigh & Atherton.

[YL]

Jul 17, 2024 20:55:28 GMT batman said:

I haven't learnt all the new MPs yet but it's already clear that the number of MPs whose surnames are the same as current constituencies has increased. Foremost amongst these is of course Father of the House Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough, C), and also re-elected was Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, LD). Although Angela Crawley retired, and Alexander Stafford was defeated, the latter's brother was elected for Farnham & Bordon (C), and was joined by, so far, Josh Newbury (Cannock Chase, Lab), Emily Darlington (Milton Keynes C, Lab) and Peter Bedford (Mid-Leicestershire, C). It's possible to argue that one could also include Claire Hazelgrove (Filton & Bradley Stoke, Lab) but Lincoln Jopp (Spelthorne, C) does not qualify. Please let me know if I've forgotten anyone. Of course, for many years there was a Stafford & Stone constituency. EDIT: I had forgotten that Sir Edward no longer qualifies as the constituency is now Leigh & Atherton.

If Leigh no longer counts then neither does Stone.

[carolus]

Jul 17, 2024 20:55:28 GMT batman said:

I haven't learnt all the new MPs yet but it's already clear that the number of MPs whose surnames are the same as current constituencies has increased. Foremost amongst these is of course Father of the House Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough, C), and also re-elected was Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, LD). Although Angela Crawley retired, and Alexander Stafford was defeated, the latter's brother was elected for Farnham & Bordon (C), and was joined by, so far, Josh Newbury (Cannock Chase, Lab), Emily Darlington (Milton Keynes C, Lab) and Peter Bedford (Mid-Leicestershire, C). It's possible to argue that one could also include Claire Hazelgrove (Filton & Bradley Stoke, Lab) but Lincoln Jopp (Spelthorne, C) does not qualify. Please let me know if I've forgotten anyone. Of course, for many years there was a Stafford & Stone constituency. EDIT: I had forgotten that Sir Edward no longer qualifies as the constituency is now Leigh & Atherton.

Stephen Kinnock-Chase?

There is a second Stone (Will Stone, Labour, Swindon North), but as mentioned, may no longer count.

There are a couple of Hamiltons, three Hayes, a Whitby, a Rutland, a Morden, an Aldridge, all of whom are halfway there.

Tom Gordon missed his chance with the boundary review, so is also only a half.

Emily Thornberry could be a very creative half.

Kemi Badenoch has seen her previous quarter turn to nothing in the review.

If you're willing to take Holyrood constituencies, then there are now two Eastwoods.

I imagine you won't accept Lewis.

[batman]

Jul 17, 2024 21:30:32 GMT YL said:

Jul 17, 2024 20:55:28 GMT batman said:

I haven't learnt all the new MPs yet but it's already clear that the number of MPs whose surnames are the same as current constituencies has increased. Foremost amongst these is of course Father of the House Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough, C), and also re-elected was Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, LD). Although Angela Crawley retired, and Alexander Stafford was defeated, the latter's brother was elected for Farnham & Bordon (C), and was joined by, so far, Josh Newbury (Cannock Chase, Lab), Emily Darlington (Milton Keynes C, Lab) and Peter Bedford (Mid-Leicestershire, C). It's possible to argue that one could also include Claire Hazelgrove (Filton & Bradley Stoke, Lab) but Lincoln Jopp (Spelthorne, C) does not qualify. Please let me know if I've forgotten anyone. Of course, for many years there was a Stafford & Stone constituency. EDIT: I had forgotten that Sir Edward no longer qualifies as the constituency is now Leigh & Atherton.

If Leigh no longer counts then neither does Stone.

you're right. So, in fact, the number of MPs whose surnames are the same as current constituencies is static, unless we allow Claire Hazelgrove.

[The Bishop]

Jul 17, 2024 15:44:21 GMT @weld said:

If you are unsure whether North East Derbyshire is moving rightwards, look at how Labour's majority was identical in percentage terms in 2015 and 2024 - 3.9%.

Tbf there is little doubt that Lee Rowley actually had a personal vote - notable that he opposed fracking before his 2017 win, as opposed to the defeated Labour incumbent.