Interesting electoral facts

[batman]

ah, him I don't remember at all.

[finsobruce]

Feb 20, 2024 15:38:55 GMT matureleft said:

Feb 20, 2024 14:54:12 GMT batman said:

that is entirely correct Mike, she is indeed Peter Bottomley's niece

There was a Labour Bottomley (Henry?) in the Cambridge party who was also related to Peter Bottomley.

Lambeth councillor (1986-90). 

[greenhert]

Speaking of constituencies that have a reputation for attracting political "characters", notorious racist Jim Merrick and hard left troublemaker George Galloway have one thing in common: they both stood in both the constituencies of Rochdale and Bradford West at least once in their lives.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Some discussion in the Retirements thread about those MPs who served a single term by choice. I think the list is this:

1945

Max Aitken (C, Holborn)
John Battley (Lab, Wandsworth, Clapham)
Albert Bechervaise (Lab, Leyton, East) - affected by boundary changes
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (C, Bury St Edmunds)
Thomas Loftus Cole (UU, Belfast, East)
Dr Louis Comyns (Lab, West Ham, Silvertown) - affected by boundary changes
Dr John Corlett (Lab, York)
Walter Farthing (Lab, Frome)
Eric Gandar-Dower (C turned Ind, Caithness and Sutherland)
Edgar Grierson (Lab, Carlisle)
Samuel Haughton (UU, Antrim)
Arthur Howard (C, Westminster, St George's) - affected by boundary changes
Sydney Lavers (Lab, Barnard Castle) - affected by boundary changes
Benn Levy (Lab, Eton and Slough)
William McAdam (Lab, Salford, North) - affected by boundary changes
Sir Noel Mason-Macfarlane (Lab, Paddington, North) - resigned 1946
Hubert Medland (Lab, Plymouth, Drake) - affected by boundary changes
Sir William Neill (UU, Belfast, North)
Henry Nicholls (Lab, West Ham, Stratford) - affected by boundary changes
Wesley Perrins (Lab, Birmingham Yardley)
Oliver Poole (C, Oswestry)
Edward Porter (Lab, Warrington)
Hon. Simon Ramsay (C, Forfarshire)
Richard Sargood (Lab, Bermondsey, West) - affected by boundary changes
Granville Sharp (Lab, Spen Valley)
Christopher Shawcross (Lab, Widnes)
Sydney Smith (Lab, Kingston-upon-Hull, South-West) - affected by boundary changes
John Thomas (Lab, Dover)
George Walker (Lab, Rossendale)
Tom Williamson (Lab, Brigg) - resigned 1948
Edith Wills (Lab, Birmingham, Duddeston) - affected by boundary changes

1950

Jack Cooper (Lab, Deptford)
Nigel Davies (C, Epping)

1951

Patricia Ford (UU, North Down) - elected in 1953 byelection
Michael O'Neill (N, Mid-Ulster)
Sidney Schofield (Lab, Barnsley) - resigned 1953

1955

Denis Keegan (C, Nottingham, South)

1959

Percy Browne (C, Torrington)
John Jackson (C, South-Eastern Derbyshire)
Commander John Kerans (C, The Hartlepools)
Alan Thompson (Lab, Dunfermline Burghs)

1964

None

1966

James Davidson (L, West Aberdeenshire)

1970

Richard Leonard (Lab, Romford)
Frank Marsden (Lab, Liverpool, Scotland) - elected 1971; affected by boundary changes
Colin Mitchell (C, West Aberdeenshire)
David Reed (Lab, Sedgefield) - affected by boundary changes

1974 (F)

None

1974 (O)

None

1979

Thomas Benyon (C, Abingdon)
Sheila Faith (C, Belper)
Helen McElhone (Lab, Glasgow, Queen's Park) - elected 1982; affected by boundary change
Andy McMahon (Lab, Glasgow, Govan) - affected by boundary change
John McQuade (UDUP, Belfast, North)
Reg Race (Lab, Wood Green) - affected by boundary change
Keith Wickenden (C, Dorking)
Sheila Wright (Lab, Birmingham, Handsworth) - affected by boundary change

1983

None

1987

Alan Amos (C, Hexham)

1992

Hartley Booth (C, Finchley) - affected by boundary change
Michael Stephen (C, Shoreham) - affected by boundary change
Roy Thomason (C, Bromsgrove)

1997

Donald Gorrie (L Dem, Edinburgh, West)
Jenny Jones (Lab, Wolverhampton, South West)
Tess Kingham (Lab, Gloucester)
Alasdair Morgan (SNP, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale)
John Swinney (SNP, Tayside North)

2001

None

2005

Jim Devine (Lab, Livingston) - elected 2005 byelection
David Howarth (L Dem, Cambridge)
Kitty Ussher (Lab, Burnley)

2010

Aidan Burley (C, Cannock Chase)
Dan Byles (C, North Warwickshire)
Lorraine Fullbrook (C, South Ribble)
Chris Kelly (C, Dudley, South)
Jessica Lee (C, Erewash)
Louise Mensch (C, Corby) - resigned 2012
Laura Sandys (C, South Thanet)
Ian Swales (L Dem, Redcar)
Mike Weatherley (C, Hove)

2015

David Mackintosh (C, Northampton South)
Natalie McGarry (SNP turned Ind, Glasgow East)
Michelle Thomson (SNP turned Ind, Edinburgh West)

2017

Bill Grant (C, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock)
Barry McElduff (SF, West Tyrone) - resigned 2018
Jared O'Mara (Lab turned Ind, Sheffield Hallam)
Ross Thomson (C, Aberdeen South)

[batman]

As I recall, Michael Stephen declined the chance to stand in E Worthing & Shoreham in 1997, convinced he would be in electoral danger. In the event, Tim Loughton held the seat with no difficulty & it has only been in the last couple of general elections that Labour has got into true contention there.

[jamesdoyle]

Feb 21, 2024 0:02:53 GMT batman said:

As I recall, Michael Stephen declined the chance to stand in E Worthing & Shoreham in 1997, convinced he would be in electoral danger. In the event, Tim Loughton held the seat with no difficulty & it has only been in the last couple of general elections that Labour has got into true contention there.

As I recall, Mr Stephen was left in no doubt by the Conservative Association that standing again would not be supported by them; he had blotted his copybook both with the constituency and with the local Con members - I can't recall all the details!

It's difficult to say how the 97 election result compares with 92 as the boundaries had changed so much, but I don't think Loughton's first victory was terribly convincing - he won by about 5000 and only just cleared 40%. I was a very junior member of Martin King's team, and I honestly believe that if his MS (which he had had for years, but nobody knew anything about until he became unavailable) hadn't suddenly become critical he would have had a really good chance of winning. On the night, Loughton and the Cons were convinced they had lost until very late on, and some of them became quite vicious.

Dan Yates got Labour into second in 2001 with a decent vote increase, with very little support from outside. Brighton & Hove were obviously far higher up the list, but he could have made a real impact with some help, before Loughton got bedded in.

[The Bishop]

One name missing from the above very comprehensive list is David Anderson, who served less than a year as MP for Dumfriesshire in 1963-64.

At the GE he decided he wanted to pursue his prominent legal career instead, only for that to end come the 1970s in somewhat bizarre circumstances.

[batman]

Although no first-time MPs elected in February 1974 retired voluntarily in October, there were some who did so in 1979, which was effectively after one term. One example that comes to mind is Colin Phipps (Dudley W, Lab) and another is Harry Selby (Glasgow Govan, Lab). I think there were others too

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Feb 21, 2024 13:58:31 GMT The Bishop said:

One name missing from the above very comprehensive list is David Anderson, who served less than a year as MP for Dumfriesshire in 1963-64.

At the GE he decided he wanted to pursue his prominent legal career instead, only for that to end come the 1970s in somewhat bizarre circumstances.

I excluded him as he was forced to retire through ill-health, rather than voluntarily. There are a number of other cases where this may have been the case. (I also included some who retired early amid scandal, who may well have been deselected, but who decided to walk.)

[johnloony]

Feb 21, 2024 13:58:31 GMT The Bishop said:

One name missing from the above very comprehensive list is David Anderson, who served less than a year as MP for Dumfriesshire in 1963-64.

At the GE he decided he wanted to pursue his prominent legal career instead, only for that to end come the 1970s in somewhat bizarre circumstances.

Thuly:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Anderson_(judge)

I reckon he did it

[greenhert]

Feb 21, 2024 14:41:49 GMT batman said:

Although no first-time MPs elected in February 1974 retired voluntarily in October, there were some who did so in 1979, which was effectively after one term. One example that comes to mind is Colin Phipps (Dudley W, Lab) and another is Harry Selby (Glasgow Govan, Lab). I think there were others too

John Cockcroft (Conservative, Nantwich) and John Carson (Ulster Unionist, Belfast North) were the others.

[greenhert]

Feb 20, 2024 21:01:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Some discussion in the Retirements thread about those MPs who served a single term by choice. I think the list is this:

1945

Max Aitken (C, Holborn)
John Battley (Lab, Wandsworth, Clapham)
Albert Bechervaise (Lab, Leyton, East) - affected by boundary changes
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (C, Bury St Edmunds)
Thomas Loftus Cole (UU, Belfast, East)
Dr Louis Comyns (Lab, West Ham, Silvertown) - affected by boundary changes
Dr John Corlett (Lab, York)
Walter Farthing (Lab, Frome)
Eric Gandar-Dower (C turned Ind, Caithness and Sutherland)
Edgar Grierson (Lab, Carlisle)
Samuel Haughton (UU, Antrim)
Arthur Howard (C, Westminster, St George's) - affected by boundary changes
Sydney Lavers (Lab, Barnard Castle) - affected by boundary changes
Benn Levy (Lab, Eton and Slough)
William McAdam (Lab, Salford, North) - affected by boundary changes
Sir Noel Mason-Macfarlane (Lab, Paddington, North) - resigned 1946
Hubert Medland (Lab, Plymouth, Drake) - affected by boundary changes
Sir William Neill (UU, Belfast, North)
Henry Nicholls (Lab, West Ham, Stratford) - affected by boundary changes
Wesley Perrins (Lab, Birmingham Yardley)
Oliver Poole (C, Oswestry)
Edward Porter (Lab, Warrington)
Hon. Simon Ramsay (C, Forfarshire)
Richard Sargood (Lab, Bermondsey, West) - affected by boundary changes
Granville Sharp (Lab, Spen Valley)
Christopher Shawcross (Lab, Widnes)
Sydney Smith (Lab, Kingston-upon-Hull, South-West) - affected by boundary changes
John Thomas (Lab, Dover)
George Walker (Lab, Rossendale)
Tom Williamson (Lab, Brigg) - resigned 1948
Edith Wills (Lab, Birmingham, Duddeston) - affected by boundary changes

1950

Jack Cooper (Lab, Deptford)
Nigel Davies (C, Epping)

1951

Patricia Ford (UU, North Down) - elected in 1953 byelection
Michael O'Neill (N, Mid-Ulster)
Sidney Schofield (Lab, Barnsley) - resigned 1953

1955

Denis Keegan (C, Nottingham, South)

1959

Percy Browne (C, Torrington)
John Jackson (C, South-Eastern Derbyshire)
Commander John Kerans (C, The Hartlepools)
Alan Thompson (Lab, Dunfermline Burghs)

1964

None

1966

James Davidson (L, West Aberdeenshire)

1970

Richard Leonard (Lab, Romford)
Frank Marsden (Lab, Liverpool, Scotland) - elected 1971; affected by boundary changes
Colin Mitchell (C, West Aberdeenshire)
David Reed (Lab, Sedgefield) - affected by boundary changes

1974 (F)

None

1974 (O)

None

1979

Thomas Benyon (C, Abingdon)
Sheila Faith (C, Belper)
Helen McElhone (Lab, Glasgow, Queen's Park) - elected 1982; affected by boundary change
Andy McMahon (Lab, Glasgow, Govan) - affected by boundary change
John McQuade (UDUP, Belfast, North)
Reg Race (Lab, Wood Green) - affected by boundary change
Keith Wickenden (C, Dorking)
Sheila Wright (Lab, Birmingham, Handsworth) - affected by boundary change

1983

None

1987

Alan Amos (C, Hexham)

1992

Hartley Booth (C, Finchley) - affected by boundary change
Michael Stephen (C, Shoreham) - affected by boundary change
Roy Thomason (C, Bromsgrove)

1997

Donald Gorrie (L Dem, Edinburgh, West)
Jenny Jones (Lab, Wolverhampton, South West)
Tess Kingham (Lab, Gloucester)
Alasdair Morgan (SNP, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale)
John Swinney (SNP, Tayside North)

2001

None

2005

Jim Devine (Lab, Livingston) - elected 2005 byelection
David Howarth (L Dem, Cambridge)
Kitty Ussher (Lab, Burnley)

2010

Aidan Burley (C, Cannock Chase)
Dan Byles (C, North Warwickshire)
Lorraine Fullbrook (C, South Ribble)
Chris Kelly (C, Dudley, South)
Jessica Lee (C, Erewash)
Louise Mensch (C, Corby) - resigned 2012
Laura Sandys (C, South Thanet)
Ian Swales (L Dem, Redcar)
Mike Weatherley (C, Hove)

2015

David Mackintosh (C, Northampton South)
Natalie McGarry (SNP turned Ind, Glasgow East)
Michelle Thomson (SNP turned Ind, Edinburgh West)

2017

Bill Grant (C, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock)
Barry McElduff (SF, West Tyrone) - resigned 2018
Jared O'Mara (Lab turned Ind, Sheffield Hallam)
Ross Thomson (C, Aberdeen South)

About the 1979 list-technically, Thomas Benyon and Sheila Faith were affected by boundary changes; because of them Sheila Faith tried to migrate to another seat, but failed, whereas Thomas Benyon lost the selection in Wantage (which was the successor seat to Abingdon, effectively) to Robert Jackson. Sheila Wright stood down for different reasons; that is why Butler & Kavanagh did not mention her in the 1983 British General Election Study in the candidates chapter. The same applies for Richard Leonard in the 1970 list.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

State of the byelection vote totals following Rochdale

2019 percentage	2019 Vote	Party	Place	Party	By-election Vote	By-election Share
47.79	534,357	Conservative	1	Labour	211,415	32.69
32.64	364,949	Labour	2	Conservative	207,124	32.02
9.41	105,208	Liberal Democrats	3	Liberal Democrats	107,187	16.57
3.73	41,704	SNP	4	Reform UK	21,756	3.36
2.47	27,611	Green E&W	5	Workers Party GB	20,599	3.18
2.30	25,745	Brexit	6	Green E&W	19,445	3.01
0.58	6,432	Heavy Woollen District	7	SNP	18,528	2.86
0.25	2,768	Yorkshire	8	Independent Tully	6,638	1.03
0.24	2,684	UKIP	9	Independent S. Lee	2,904	0.45
0.10	1,141	Shropshire	10	UKIP	2,473	0.38

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Labour's vote share is as near as damnit the same in the byelections this Parliament as it was in those constituencies at 2019. The fact they've won all these Tory seats, but perhaps not moved forward in vote share, is notable to me.

[Pete Whitehead]

That's quite a small swing actually. I know it includes Hartlepool but that can't account for much of the total now. I feel another map coming on..

[YL]

Mar 1, 2024 18:06:08 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

That's quite a small swing actually. I know it includes Hartlepool but that can't account for much of the total now. I feel another map coming on..

As far as Labour are concerned as well as Hartlepool and Rochdale it presumably includes their lack of a candidate in Southend West and three lost deposits when they were squeezed by the Lib Dems.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Mar 1, 2024 18:06:08 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

That's quite a small swing actually. I know it includes Hartlepool but that can't account for much of the total now. I feel another map coming on..

I know that this format attracts criticism but there are stories within the numbers: the swing to Labour, the fact that the LibDem vote numbers has almost not changed, the SNP reduction in numbers, it's all there to calculate

[Harry Hayfield]

Mar 1, 2024 14:02:17 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

State of the byelection vote totals following Rochdale

2019 percentage	2019 Vote	Party	Place	Party	By-election Vote	By-election Share
47.79	534,357	Conservative	1	Labour	211,415	32.69
32.64	364,949	Labour	2	Conservative	207,124	32.02
9.41	105,208	Liberal Democrats	3	Liberal Democrats	107,187	16.57
3.73	41,704	SNP	4	Reform UK	21,756	3.36
2.47	27,611	Green E&W	5	Workers Party GB	20,599	3.18
2.30	25,745	Brexit	6	Green E&W	19,445	3.01
0.58	6,432	Heavy Woollen District	7	SNP	18,528	2.86
0.25	2,768	Yorkshire	8	Independent Tully	6,638	1.03
0.24	2,684	UKIP	9	Independent S. Lee	2,904	0.45
0.10	1,141	Shropshire	10	UKIP	2,473	0.38

Changes: Con -15.77%, Lab +0.05%, Lib Dem +7.16%, Reform UK +1.06%, Workers Party +3.18%, Green +0.54%, SNP -1.05%, UKIP +0.14%
Swings: Con to Lab 7.91%, Con to Lib Dem 11.47%, Lab to Lib Dem 3.61%

[YL]

Parliaments since 1945 ordered by the proportion of by-elections seeing the seat changing hands:

2019 13/22
1992 9/18
1966 16/38
2005 5/14
1979 7/20
2001 2/6
1987 8/24
1970 10/30
Oct 1974 8/30
1964 3/13
2017 1/5
2015 2/10
1983 6/31
2010 4/21
1997 3/13
1959 9/62
1955 7/52
1945 4/52
1951 1/48
Feb 1974 0/1
1950 0/16

For the current Parliament to lose its position on its own at the top of this table there would need to be at least four more by-election holds.

[The Bishop]

Could - could - end up as 14 out of 23 if Blackpool South actually happens.