Interesting electoral facts

[carlton43]

Nov 11, 2023 0:14:31 GMT ClevelandYorks said:

Nov 10, 2023 20:43:25 GMT @weld said:

The Hackney mayoral result was among the Greens’ best.

That Green result in 1989 has always fascinated me. The surge out of nowhere, before completely disappearing off the scene for a bit. Do any forum contributors remember the context of the result or have any interesting stories about the election?

I too liked the work of Sue Limb for radio but had thought her to be Chinese (Zhu Lim) or with such a surname by marriage.  And with R3 presenter Sara Mohr-Pietsch, I spent years believing she was Sarah Moore Peach.

[kevinf]

I remember that Party Political Broadcast where they dumped gunge over children. It was either scary or hilarious, depending on your personality. And probably one of the most effective ever. Weren’t they in favour of leaving the EU in those days?

[batman]

In 1989 they were fronted pretty well & came up with a good slogan for posters in public places, "The world can't vote. You can, vote Green". The sudden discovery that effective frontman David Icke was, in fact, barking mad with some horrible antisemitic conspiracy theories was a huge blow for the Greens, and one from which they were very slow to discover. Sarah Parkin was also quite an effective frontperson but for some reason didn't take long to fade away. In my experience quite a lot of voters thought they were voting for Greenpeace when they were voting for the Green Party, which was not really true.

[Pete Whitehead]

I may not be the first person to have made the observation, but it is undoubtedly an interesting electoral fact that each of the elections on the last three sets of constituency boundaries have produced the same winner, that is to say those from the third review saw three Conservative victories (1983, 1987, 1992), those from the fourth all Labour victories (1997, 2001, 2005) and those from the fifth all Conservative (2010, 2015, 2017, 2019)*
It is a strange coincidence and hadn't ever happened previously. One might think that is because previous boundaries lasted for more elections, but while this is true of the 1918-45/50 boundaries and the 1955-74 ones, the boundaries enacted in 1950 onlylasted for two elections and still managed to produce two different winners.

* One may quibble about whether the Conservatives 'won' in 2010 or in 2017, but they won the most votes and the most seats and went on to form a government.

[The Bishop]

With the rider that Scotland changed boundaries for the 2005 GE, yes.

Maybe if Starmer does indeed become PM, this might be an incentive to lengthen the period between reviews

[johnloony]

Dec 13, 2023 13:03:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I may not be the first person to have made the observation, but it is undoubtedly an interesting electoral fact that each of the elections on the last three sets of constituency boundaries have produced the same winner, that is to say those from the third review saw three Conservative victories (1983, 1987, 1992), those from the fourth all Labour victories (1997, 2001, 2005) and those from the fifth all Conservative (2010, 2015, 2017, 2019)*
It is a strange coincidence and hadn't ever happened previously. One might think that is because previous boundaries lasted for more elections, but while this is true of the 1918-45/50 boundaries and the 1955-74 ones, the boundaries enacted in 1950 onlylasted for two elections and still managed to produce two different winners.

* One may quibble about whether the Conservatives 'won' in 2010 or in 2017, but they won the most votes and the most seats and went on to form a government.

I hadn’t noticed that as such, but it does remind me of a slightly annoying related fact: that when the landslides happened in 1983 and 1997, and when the government changed in 2010, it wasn’t possible to do a direct comparison between the old and new results in individual constituencies, because in most cases they were slightly different. If a safe seat switches from party A to party B, and if Famous MP X loses his seat as a result, it’s more decisively fun if it’s exactly the same constituency boundaries.

[batman]

in some cases yes, but for example Enfield Southgate was unchanged in 1997 and this was the case for quite a few of Labour's other most dramatic gains (Wimbledon & Castle Point come to mind straight away)

[batman]

2015 was the only postwar year in which the Conservatives achieved an outright majority of the seats nationally, but failed to do so in the present-day ceremonial county of Lancashire - both Labour & the Conservatives won 8 seats there.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Total number of votes cast at the 2019 election in those constituencies which have had byelections this term: 1,070,794
Total number of votes cast at those byelections: 615,703

Percentage share 2019	Votes	Party	Place	Party	Votes byelections	Percentage share byelections
48.52	519,550	Conservative	1	Labour	209,013	33.95
31.80	340,474	Labour	2	Conservative	203,393	33.03
9.52	101,986	Liberal Democrats	3	Liberal Democrats	105,023	17.06
3.89	41,704	SNP	4	Reform UK	19,788	3.21
2.49	26,625	Green E&W	5	Green E&W	19,009	3.09
2.04	21,878	Brexit	6	SNP	18,528	3.01
0.60	6,432	Heavy Woollen Dist	7	Workers Party	8,264	1.34
0.26	2,768	Yorkshire	8	Ind. S. Lee	2,904	0.47
0.25	2,694	UKIP	9	UKIP	2,473	0.40
0.11	1,141	Shropshire	10	Ind. A Akbar	2,090	0.34

[batman]

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

[johnloony]

Feb 19, 2024 15:35:47 GMT batman said:

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

We have known for a long time that Labour MPs have been (for most of the last 30 years or so) more likely to die than Conservative MPs. Whether that continues to be the case in future is yet to be seen.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 19, 2024 15:35:47 GMT batman said:

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

Well I'm not sure it does (notwithstanding the meal they have made of Rochdale). 7 of those 35 - a fifth of the total - have gained seats in this Paliament, 6 of those in the last 12 months. Before Wakefield, they had made no gains in by-elections since 2012. But of course they have been in opposition for 14 years, so have had an easier time defending their seats in by-elections than the governing party would. The deaths are a factor. From 2010 to 2019 there were 10 deaths of Labour MPs and none of any other party, which is fairly astonishing. But in this Parliament three Conservative MPs have died and only two Labour.

[johnloony]

Feb 19, 2024 18:37:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 19, 2024 15:35:47 GMT batman said:

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

Well I'm not sure it does (notwithstanding the meal they have made of Rochdale). 7 of those 35 - a fifth of the total - have gained seats in this Paliament, 6 of those in the last 12 months. Before Wakefield, they had made no gains in by-elections since 2012. But of course they have been in opposition for 14 years, so have had an easier time defending their seats in by-elections than the governing party would. The deaths are a factor. From 2010 to 2019 there were 10 deaths of Labour MPs and none of any other party, which is fairly astonishing. But in this Parliament three Conservative MPs have died and only two Labour.

The most recent Conservative MPs to die were in 2000, 2006, and three in 2021. Nine Conservative MPs died in the 1992-97 Parliament. It is arguable that working conditions, and pension arrangements, have made it easier for MPs to retire without worrying about money. The pattern of Labour MPs dying in relatively large numbers might not continue in the future; there may be different attitudes to reselection and retirement among CLPs.

[YL]

Feb 19, 2024 18:37:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 19, 2024 15:35:47 GMT batman said:

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

Well I'm not sure it does (notwithstanding the meal they have made of Rochdale). 7 of those 35 - a fifth of the total - have gained seats in this Paliament, 6 of those in the last 12 months. Before Wakefield, they had made no gains in by-elections since 2012. But of course they have been in opposition for 14 years, so have had an easier time defending their seats in by-elections than the governing party would. The deaths are a factor. From 2010 to 2019 there were 10 deaths of Labour MPs and none of any other party, which is fairly astonishing. But in this Parliament three Conservative MPs have died and only two Labour.

I think that the idea that "Labour are crap at by-elections" must mostly refer to their tendency to discover banana skins in their own seats when in opposition, of which Rochdale (twice!) is an example. I don't think their record at taking seats off Conservative governments is that bad, though it's not quite as impressive as the Lib Dems'; as you hint, there weren't actually many by-elections in plausible Labour targets between Corby and Wakefield. They have of course lost seats when in government, but you expect governing parties to lose some by-elections.

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 19, 2024 15:35:47 GMT batman said:

Out of about 350 Conservative MPs, only 15 have won a parliamentary by-election . Out of about 200 Labour MPs, no fewer than 35 have, plus Andy McDonald who won the Middlesbrough by-election as Labour. This could signify a number of things, for example maybe Labour MPs are more apt to die in office? - hard to be sure. Of course it remains the case that Labour are crap at by-elections

For the Lib Dems, out of 15 MPs, 5 have won by-elections, 4 during this parliament and Sarah Olney who won Richmond Park in 2016, lost it in 2017 and regained it in 2019.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 19, 2024 19:02:10 GMT YL said:

Feb 19, 2024 18:37:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Well I'm not sure it does (notwithstanding the meal they have made of Rochdale). 7 of those 35 - a fifth of the total - have gained seats in this Paliament, 6 of those in the last 12 months. Before Wakefield, they had made no gains in by-elections since 2012. But of course they have been in opposition for 14 years, so have had an easier time defending their seats in by-elections than the governing party would. The deaths are a factor. From 2010 to 2019 there were 10 deaths of Labour MPs and none of any other party, which is fairly astonishing. But in this Parliament three Conservative MPs have died and only two Labour.

I think that the idea that "Labour are crap at by-elections" must mostly refer to their tendency to discover banana skins in their own seats when in opposition, of which Rochdale (twice!) is an example. I don't think their record at taking seats off Conservative governments is that bad, though it's not quite as impressive as the Lib Dems'; as you hint, there weren't actually many by-elections in plausible Labour targets between Corby and Wakefield. They have of course lost seats when in government, but you expect governing parties to lose some by-elections.

Yes and even then they only lost two seats to the Conservatives in their whole thirteen years in government, and those only at the fag end, after an 11 year desert for the Tories. Those two are still MPs (one of them for a different seat, but I don't think that discounts him based on batman's definition), but there are still several more Labour MPs who were first elected in by-elections in that period.

[batman]

I was of course being ironic about being crap at by-elections, following a comment to that effect by James Doyle elsewhere in the forum. James took my attempted refutation of his comment very graciously in fact. And you're right, I'm including all MPs who have won by-elections, even if it was for a different seat, so therefore both Edward Timpson & Chloe Smith are included (both of those, of course, are retiring at the forthcoming election). The first of these historically is of course the Father of the House, Sir Peter Bottomley, who entered Parliament by gaining what was then the Greenwich, Woolwich West constituency (later, essentially, Eltham) from Labour. (His wife, too, has won a parliamentary by-election, but has of course not been an MP for a good many years now. His niece has however not won one.)

[Merseymike]

Feb 20, 2024 14:23:58 GMT batman said:

I was of course being ironic about being crap at by-elections, following a comment to that effect by James Doyle elsewhere in the forum. James took my attempted refutation of his comment very graciously in fact. And you're right, I'm including all MPs who have won by-elections, even if it was for a different seat, so therefore both Edward Timpson & Chloe Smith are included (both of those, of course, are retiring at the forthcoming election). The first of these historically is of course the Father of the House, Sir Peter Bottomley, who entered Parliament by gaining what was then the Greenwich, Woolwich West constituency (later, essentially, Eltham) from Labour. (His wife, too, has won a parliamentary by-election, but has of course not been an MP for a good many years now. His niece has however not won one.)

I think that her niece Kitty Ussher was a Labour MP - she stood down for Burnley. I believe she is now an economist for the Institute of Directors

[batman]

that is entirely correct Mike, she is indeed Peter Bottomley's niece

[matureleft]

Feb 20, 2024 14:54:12 GMT batman said:

that is entirely correct Mike, she is indeed Peter Bottomley's niece

There was a Labour Bottomley (Henry?) in the Cambridge party who was also related to Peter Bottomley.