Interesting electoral facts

[Harry Hayfield]

Nov 8, 2021 9:17:05 GMT hullenedge said:

English 'election triangles' (ternary diagrams) 1987-2019:-



















*The work of this chap:-

This is why I so liked the Three Party Battleground from Election 2005 as it showed you which party was actually winning.

[minionofmidas]

Nov 15, 2021 17:53:21 GMT Andrew_S said:

Can't remember whether I've done this before.

34% of current MPs are female (222) but I was wondering what happens to that figure if you exclude MPs elected before 2010.

MPs elected before 2010 currently in the Commons:
Total: 152
Male: 124 (81.6%)
Female: 28 (18.4%)

Therefore MPs elected since and including 2010:
Total: 495
Male: 301 (60.8%)
Female: 194 (39.2%)

So it's almost 40% using that measure.

that's not a lot of MPs remaining from the Brown government. How unusual is that degree of turnover, historically speaking?

Also, by a rough count I just did, women made up ~19% of the 2005-10 parliament and you'd think they'd be younger on avg than their male colleagues, so it's surprising they have had the same attrition rate since.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Nov 17, 2021 6:52:08 GMT minionofmidas said:

Nov 15, 2021 17:53:21 GMT Andrew_S said:

Can't remember whether I've done this before.

34% of current MPs are female (222) but I was wondering what happens to that figure if you exclude MPs elected before 2010.

MPs elected before 2010 currently in the Commons:
Total: 152
Male: 124 (81.6%)
Female: 28 (18.4%)

Therefore MPs elected since and including 2010:
Total: 495
Male: 301 (60.8%)
Female: 194 (39.2%)

So it's almost 40% using that measure.

that's not a lot of MPs remaining from the Brown government. How unusual is that degree of turnover, historically speaking?

Also, by a rough count I just did, women made up ~19% of the 2005-10 parliament and you'd think they'd be younger on avg than their male colleagues, so it's surprising they have had the same attrition rate since.

I have a feeling, not checked its true, that quite a lot of Labour's female MPs were in marginals at the time so would have their seats more percentage wise at subsequent elections. 

[The Bishop]

I think they were slightly more likely to be in marginals, but not massively so.

Some of the Labour women elected in the 1997 "wave" did not find the Commons terribly congenial, it is fair to say.

[Merseymike]

Nov 17, 2021 12:41:31 GMT The Bishop said:

I think they were slightly more likely to be in marginals, but not massively so.

Some of the Labour women elected in the 1997 "wave" did not find the Commons terribly congenial, it is fair to say.

I recall Tess Kingham saying that she felt she had a lot more influence running a small NGO than being a backbench MP. Jenny Jones announced early in the parliament that she wouldn't be seeking re-election.

[hullenedge]

New swing voters?

carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/18/britain-s-new-swing-voters-survey-of-british-indian-attitudes-pub-85784

[bjornhattan]

Nov 27, 2021 1:13:43 GMT Andrew_S said:

The campaign in Southend West in 1987.

The young Lib Dem candidate there is now a councillor in (of all places) Malmesbury.

[The Bishop]

And the Labour candidate is now the party leader in the House of Lords.

[johnloony]

Nov 27, 2021 1:13:43 GMT Andrew_S said:

The campaign in Southend West in 1987.

"Paul Shannon"

[carlton43]

Nov 27, 2021 23:46:02 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 27, 2021 1:13:43 GMT Andrew_S said:

The campaign in Southend West in 1987.

"Paul Shannon"

Or even a Channon.

[hullenedge]

The link to the report is in the tweet. A bit surprising that party switching contributes so much (96%) to electoral change. JM does qualify in the thread that this data is based upon first order elections with higher turnouts. Local elections and by-elections, where turnout is much lower, could be influenced more by turnout switching.

[johnloony]

From a discussion in another thread:
constituencies in which 5 or more candidates held their deposits:

Parliamentary by-elections:
12 since 1991

2019 general election:
12 (of which 8 were in Northern Ireland)

2017 general election:
3 with 5 candidates, 1 with 6 candidates (all in Northern Ireland)

2015 general election:
93 with 5 candidates, 8 with 6 candidates, 1 with 7 candidates

[hullenedge]

Another article by John Curtice explaining the likely split (70:30) of Brexit Party voters to Con:Lab if no BP candidate in 2019:-

whatukthinks.org/eu/what-impact-did-the-brexit-party-have-in-the-2019-general-election/

[hullenedge]

[batman]

apologies if someone's mentioned this before, but how often has it been the case that all 3 principal national party leaders have represented London constituencies? of course the previous Labour leader does also.

[andrewp]

Dec 22, 2021 11:50:09 GMT batman said:

apologies if someone's mentioned this before, but how often has it been the case that all 3 principal national party leaders have represented London constituencies? of course the previous Labour leader does also.

I’m pretty sure the answer to that is never. 

Labour leaders representing London constituencies are Lansbury, Attlee, Corbyn and Starmer.

Tory leaders representing London constituencies are Balfour, Heath, Thatcher, Duncan-Smith and Johnson. Macmillan  and Churchill represented areas that are now in Greater London but weren’t at the time.

[The Bishop]

You have forgotten Vince Cable already?

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 22, 2021 11:50:09 GMT batman said:

apologies if someone's mentioned this before, but how often has it been the case that all 3 principal national party leaders have represented London constituencies? of course the previous Labour leader does also.

I don't think its been the case previously. Vince Cable was the last Lib Dem leader to represent a London seat but he stepped down the day befoe Boris became Tory leader

[andrewp]

Dec 22, 2021 12:09:06 GMT The Bishop said:

You have forgotten Vince Cable already?

I had! Whoops. In my mind it went straight from Tim Farron to Jo Swinson

[batman]

of course there was also the weird thing that 2 of the principal party leaders were Clements, and the other was married to Clementina.