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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2021 8:38:50 GMT
Don't want to quibble with the academics but 25 seats seems a bit high however the Brexit Party cost us seats in 2019.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2021 12:54:06 GMT
I note the telltale words "up to" are used.....
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2021 13:34:40 GMT
I note the telltale words "up to" are used..... The academics are definitely pushing this figure. Of course it could be a selling point for the book but such a crushing (psychological?) defeat for Labour (down in the 170s) may paradoxically have been more beneficial in the long run. Phoenix from the ashes? |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Nov 3, 2021 14:30:47 GMT
I really struggle to believe that in South Yorkshire the Brexit Party not being there would have actually delivered more seats to the Tories.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2021 14:40:11 GMT
I really struggle to believe that in South Yorkshire the Brexit Party not being there would have actually delivered more seats to the Tories. Wentworth & Dearne plus the two Doncasters? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2021 14:44:13 GMT
But that assumes that all the Labour voters who sat out 2019 will sit out 2024 as well which seems unlikely
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 3, 2021 14:44:59 GMT
I really struggle to believe that in South Yorkshire the Brexit Party not being there would have actually delivered more seats to the Tories. Wentworth & Dearne plus the two Doncasters? Normanton and possibly Rotherham and a Barnsley as well. |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Nov 3, 2021 14:50:19 GMT
I really struggle to believe that in South Yorkshire the Brexit Party not being there would have actually delivered more seats to the Tories. Wentworth & Dearne plus the two Doncasters? Wentworth & Dearne is the only one I think might possibly have gone. But even the two Doncasters I think would have been too much of a stretch. People may well have been anecdotally discussing tactical voting on a given street, but I don't believe enough would have gone through with voting Tory. South Yorkshire is not Greater Manchester or Teesside, or even West Yorkshire for that matter. The anti-Tory sentiment is far more engrained than in those areas. |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Nov 3, 2021 14:51:12 GMT
Wentworth & Dearne plus the two Doncasters? Normanton and possibly Rotherham and a Barnsley as well. The two Barnsley constituencies would never have gone in a month of Sundays. Big Brexit votes, but the Tory vote there basically maxed out in 2019. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 3, 2021 14:51:14 GMT
It's just fundamentally not important or even that interesting. 'What if the Brexit Party had stood down everywhere?', well, what if Labour had had a leader who was not (by that point) despised by a dangerously large section of the party's usual base vote? What if the election was not in part an 'issue election' about Brexit? What if Boris Johnson were abducted by aliens? Needless to say it also tells us nothing about what might happen next time around.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 3, 2021 14:55:21 GMT
But that assumes that all the Labour voters who sat out 2019 will sit out 2024 as well which seems unlikely There was also no hint of it in the local elections, for all that they were underwhelming and generally disappointing for Labour. And, sure, General Elections are not applied local polls. But still less are they action-replays of the previous election, particularly when the previous one was so heavily shaped by a series of special factors that cannot be repeated. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2021 14:58:44 GMT
It's just fundamentally not important or even that interesting. 'What if the Brexit Party had stood down everywhere?', well, what if Labour had had a leader who was not (by that point) despised by a dangerously large section of the party's usual base vote? What if the election was not in part an 'issue election' about Brexit? What if Boris Johnson were abducted by aliens? Needless to say it also tells us nothing about what might happen next time around. It sells books! You'll have a copy no doubt. Regardless of Brexit and JC those South Yorks/North Notts/North Derbyshire seats have become better territory for us. The new housing estates don't deliver the Labour votes and it will be very interesting to watch next time. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2021 15:04:45 GMT
But it has to be remembered that all of those results were in the context of Labour getting a pasting nationwide. A better Labour performance (ie not getting stuffed by a double-figure vote share margin) will improve Labour's position in those areas, especially as Labour will be less toxic to the voters who live there almost by default (let's face it, we can't be any more toxic).
Those seats might not be as safe as they were 40 years ago but they haven't magically become seats the Tories win in a close election
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2021 15:07:55 GMT
But that assumes that all the Labour voters who sat out 2019 will sit out 2024 as well which seems unlikely There was also no hint of it in the local elections, for all that they were underwhelming and generally disappointing for Labour. And, sure, General Elections are not applied local polls. But still less are they action-replays of the previous election, particularly when the previous one was so heavily shaped by a series of special factors that cannot be repeated. And it has to be said, canvassing in areas near me that wouldn't look out of place in South Yorkshire supports the idea that lots of our voters simply didn't bother in 2019 but they all seemed much more enthusiastic about voting Labour in 2021 |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 3, 2021 15:42:02 GMT
Wentworth & Dearne plus the two Doncasters? Wentworth & Dearne is the only one I think might possibly have gone. But even the two Doncasters I think would have been too much of a stretch. People may well have been anecdotally discussing tactical voting on a given street, but I don't believe enough would have gone through with voting Tory. South Yorkshire is not Greater Manchester or Teesside, or even West Yorkshire for that matter. The anti-Tory sentiment is far more engrained than in those areas. Why not Normanton? |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Nov 3, 2021 15:50:09 GMT
Wentworth & Dearne is the only one I think might possibly have gone. But even the two Doncasters I think would have been too much of a stretch. People may well have been anecdotally discussing tactical voting on a given street, but I don't believe enough would have gone through with voting Tory. South Yorkshire is not Greater Manchester or Teesside, or even West Yorkshire for that matter. The anti-Tory sentiment is far more engrained than in those areas. Why not Normanton? Because Normanton isn't in South Yorkshire. I do think that Normanton Pontefract and Castleford could have gone, and perhaps even Hemsworth for that matter too. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 3, 2021 16:00:23 GMT
Because Normanton isn't in South Yorkshire. I do think that Normanton Pontefract and Castleford could have gone, and perhaps even Hemsworth for that matter too. These seats are all of a piece in the West Riding and similar in outlook. There is no real South Yorkshire (a fourth riding! when can only be three thirds!) and it is a silly abstract fiction with no meaning or substance. I live in the West Riding. Why point up this false difference. And what is your view on Sheffield SE as to Brexit Party and future demographic shift? |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Nov 3, 2021 16:14:23 GMT
Because Normanton isn't in South Yorkshire. I do think that Normanton Pontefract and Castleford could have gone, and perhaps even Hemsworth for that matter too. These seats are all of a piece in the West Riding and similar in outlook. There is no real South Yorkshire (a fourth riding! when can only be three thirds!) and it is a silly abstract fiction with no meaning or substance. I live in the West Riding. Why point up this false difference. And what is your view on Sheffield SE as to Brexit Party and future demographic shift? I'm not as wedded to the concept of Ridings as being useful delimitators anymore, although I am inclined to consider Normanton and Hemsworth as part of 'coal' Yorkshire rather than 'wool' Yorkshire. I would also point out that there are parts of Sheffield that were not historically in Yorkshire at all, let alone bound to one of its Ridings. As for Sheffield SE I do believe that large parts of it (and Richmond ward in Heeley) are fertile ground for the Tories, and that the Brexit Party didn't really have purpose there with UKIP having already done its job as the gateway drug. Having said that, SE will not be won for the right as long as Darnall ward remains part of it. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 8, 2021 9:17:05 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 15, 2021 17:53:21 GMT
Can't remember whether I've done this before.
34% of current MPs are female (222) but I was wondering what happens to that figure if you exclude MPs elected before 2010.
MPs elected before 2010 currently in the Commons:
Total: 152
Male: 124 (81.6%)
Female: 28 (18.4%)
Therefore MPs elected since and including 2010:
Total: 495
Male: 301 (60.8%)
Female: 194 (39.2%)
So it's almost 40% using that measure.
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