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Post by hullenedge on Sept 14, 2021 21:25:57 GMT
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:- Did Labour overperform in the North or underperform in the South? Both but they can afford to underperform in no hope seats. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 14, 2021 22:30:41 GMT
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:- Did Labour overperform in the North or underperform in the South? There seems to be (an unsurprising) underperformance in rural seats. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,858 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2021 2:35:25 GMT
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:- Would be fine, if the author revealed His InGredients... |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 15, 2021 13:10:12 GMT
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:- Would be fine, if the author revealed His InGredients... It would. Using a simpler split (Deprivation 2019 Index broken into deciles, ONS categories of seats and Brexit vote) very few seats are in the 'wrong group':-  drive.google.com/file/d/1-C8HCS0Z4W4aBepFy9D2zuX2gCgRnVsr/view?usp=sharing |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,858
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 15, 2021 18:54:46 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 15, 2021 19:47:16 GMT
Thank you. Just noticed that I wrote quartile rather decile. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 16, 2021 22:52:06 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 21, 2021 8:33:17 GMT
Extract from Politics on Parade: Army Education and the 1945 General Election:-    The article considers the charge that the Army Educational Corps/Army Bureau of Current Affairs 'indoctrinated' those in the Forces to vote Left. The conclusion:- "While it is possible that a number of soldiers might have been influenced to vote Labour as a result of these discussions, not only is it unlikely that the majority of troops would have been politically radicalized by them; even if they had been, it is doubtful that their votes would have had a decisive impact on the overall election result in 1945." There was (obviously) no polling of the Forces' Vote so we can't compare with Home polling but the Gallup figures showed that the 'youth vote' was comfortably more than 2-1 in Labour's favour. (The only group backing the Tories were women aged over 50, most unlikely to be serving). Forces' turnout was only 59% and actual participation lower given registration rates. Possibly if that turnout had been higher the Labour landslide majority would have been enhanced. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 22, 2021 8:26:08 GMT
More Paula Surridge research:-
The median voter described here is found within the 'lean conservative values/lean economic left' set.
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Post by peterm on Sept 22, 2021 11:46:33 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 25, 2021 5:16:15 GMT
And
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,797
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 25, 2021 9:26:59 GMT
My uni, Stirling, appears to have produced most of the Scottish political establishment. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,998
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2021 11:11:31 GMT
You mean the percentage of Labour MPs with degrees has increased along with the general population? Who would ever have guessed!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 25, 2021 11:32:48 GMT
How unusual for political academic Matt Goodwin to be making common anti-intellectual cause with the Cultural Revolution in China and Pol Pot in Cambodia.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2021 18:09:24 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 14, 2021 8:27:08 GMT
"There should be no limits on free speech, even if this enables people to voice offensive views" Least supportive in the country 1. Runnymede and Weybridge 2. Hitchin and Harpenden 3. East Dunbartonshire 4. Aylesbury 5. Warwick and Leamington 6. West Worcestershire 7. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East 8. South Cambridgeshire 9. Hornsey and Wood Green 10.Buckingham Most supportive in the country 1. Kingston upon Hull East 2. Hartlepool 3. Bournemouth West 4. Plymouth, Moor View 5. Barnsley East 6. Bolsover 7. Walsall North 8. North West Norfolk 9. Nottingham South 10.Barnsley Central" election.unherd.com/free-speech/I posted this mainly because I thought it was a bit ironic that the constituency where Magna Carta was signed has the lowest support for this measure. Although I'm a bit sceptical about it — I can't think why R&W would be top of this list. If i've worked it out correctly this averages out at 33 respondents per constituency. And then there is this from their text :
"While this does not yield enough observations in individual constituencies to treat the data as separate constituency polls, we can look for patterns in responses across constituencies that have similar characteristics, and then work out the implications of those patterns for each constituency".
And are the respondents self selecting?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2021 11:35:07 GMT
The absence of strongly Labour seats (save for Hornsey/WG) from that top 10 "least supportive" is surely notable though - and cuts across some common assumptions.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 14, 2021 12:02:01 GMT
The absence of strongly Labour seats (save for Hornsey/WG) from that top 10 "least supportive" is surely notable though - and cuts across some common assumptions. On the contrary - the absence of any logical pattern supports the assumption (made by everyone here) that this survey is total bollocks based on deeply flawed methodology |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2021 12:04:35 GMT
Well even I don't really disagree with that, but surely the "most supportive" seats are rather more what you would expect given a credible survey of this type.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 14, 2021 16:22:38 GMT
Useful stats to bear in mind next time a Welsh nationalist talks about second homes:
Had Leanne Wood won in the Rhondda 7/14 would have been landlords.
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