Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 26, 2021 0:22:08 GMT
I'm curious to know who's responsible for this fantastic website, assuming it isn't a government site of some type. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2021 6:05:56 GMT
That is so simple an idea and very well executed. |
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Post by froome on Aug 26, 2021 6:25:05 GMT
Unless the constituencies have changed a lot in nature, who would have thought Croydon S would be Labour in 1945, yet Croydon N would be Tory! I'm slightly surprised that there hasn't been a single election when the Conservatives haven't won any of the seats. I wonder how long that record will continue for. |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 26, 2021 6:56:39 GMT
I'm curious to know who's responsible for this fantastic website, assuming it isn't a government site of some type. No contact details or a bio. Given the list of references it's someone who you'd hope would post here. Perhaps they do? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 26, 2021 6:57:48 GMT
I'm curious to know who's responsible for this fantastic website, assuming it isn't a government site of some type. No contact details or a bio. Given the list of references it's someone who you'd hope would post here. Perhaps they do? I wondered if it was your good self |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 26, 2021 7:01:39 GMT
No contact details or a bio. Given the list of references it's someone who you'd hope would post here. Perhaps they do? I wondered if it was your good self Sadly not but I'm flattered. Could it be someone who used to be a councillor in TH? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 27, 2021 12:13:45 GMT
Not a fact as such but I’m sure of interest to many:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2021 20:31:16 GMT
Does it occur to anyone else that both Canada and Germany, and also in a way Norway, have seen the party which has been in a long term poll lead suddenly lose it during the election campaign? While incumbent governments across the world tended to increase in popularity in 2020, I wonder if there's a new scepticism about politics in autumn 2021 in which electorates faced with an election are now rethinking their earlier intentions.
Or it could just be a complete coincidence.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 28, 2021 21:43:38 GMT
Does it occur to anyone else that both Canada and Germany, and also in a way Norway, have seen the party which has been in a long term poll lead suddenly lose it during the election campaign? While incumbent governments across the world tended to increase in popularity in 2020, I wonder if there's a new scepticism about politics in autumn 2021 in which electorates faced with an election are now rethinking their earlier intentions. Or it could just be a complete coincidence. Each is for its own reasons. In Canada, it's the hubris of the pathetic twit Trudeau following the example of Theresa May in expecting to get a parliamentary majority just because he wants one, but in Germany it's because of a change in the leadership of the main parties. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2021 22:25:56 GMT
Does it occur to anyone else that both Canada and Germany, and also in a way Norway, have seen the party which has been in a long term poll lead suddenly lose it during the election campaign? While incumbent governments across the world tended to increase in popularity in 2020, I wonder if there's a new scepticism about politics in autumn 2021 in which electorates faced with an election are now rethinking their earlier intentions. Or it could just be a complete coincidence. Each is for its own reasons. In Canada, it's the hubris of the pathetic twit Trudeau following the example of Theresa May in expecting to get a parliamentary majority just because he wants one, but in Germany it's because of a change in the leadership of the main parties. My point is that neither of those things would necessarily have had any impact. Calling a snap election does not automatically mean the sitting government loses - cf United Kingdom 2019. Chosing a dull party hack as leader after an iconic figure leaves does not necessarily lead to losing votes - cf United States 1988. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2021 10:07:15 GMT
Tbf the elder Bush *did* lose some ground compared to Reagan - the electoral college score definitely exaggerated his advantage on that occasion too.
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 31, 2021 4:00:05 GMT
Does it occur to anyone else that both Canada and Germany, and also in a way Norway, have seen the party which has been in a long term poll lead suddenly lose it during the election campaign? While incumbent governments across the world tended to increase in popularity in 2020, I wonder if there's a new scepticism about politics in autumn 2021 in which electorates faced with an election are now rethinking their earlier intentions. Or it could just be a complete coincidence. Each is for its own reasons. In Canada, it's the hubris of the pathetic twit Trudeau following the example of Theresa May in expecting to get a parliamentary majority just because he wants one, but in Germany it's because of a change in the leadership of the main parties. the SPD is also the incumbent party of gov't, Scholz is an incumbent member of government where Laschet is not, and indeed that's the other half of the story here. Scholz is successfully painting himself as the Merkel continuity candidate to swing voters. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 13, 2021 15:03:54 GMT
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Sept 13, 2021 20:36:32 GMT
I'm not sure seats that were Blue in 1983 or 1987 should really be counted as 'Red Wall'.
There is a case to be made these are simply semi-marginal Labour seats that one can reasonably expect to go Tory whenever there is a substantial Tory majority.
Personally I'd restrict the term to seats that were previously capable of resisting Tory landslides.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2021 22:37:49 GMT
I'm not sure seats that were Blue in 1983 or 1987 should really be counted as 'Red Wall'.
There is a case to be made these are simply semi-marginal Labour seats that one can reasonably expect to go Tory whenever there is a substantial Tory majority.
Personally I'd restrict the term to seats that were previously capable of resisting Tory landslides.
Well, quite. At least it's a slightly less witless definition than "Tory gains in the North" I'm just waiting for the article that claims "Keighley is typical of the red wall, a safe Labour seat that has only voted Conservative in landslides such as 2019, 1983, and 2010" or some other such nonsense |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Sept 14, 2021 7:28:48 GMT
One complicating factor in my view is the difference between the electoral version of the 'Red Wall' and the parliamentary version of it.
There are definitely some MPs who gained their seats in 2019 off Labour who act like Red Wallers, even if psephologically their constituency isn't technically defined as such. Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington and Bury North all spring to mind immediately, and I'm sure there are more.
Edit:
On a related note, I'd broadly categorise the 2019 wins into 3:
* Historic marginals eg Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington, Stockton South, Bury North, Bolton North East, Birmingham Northfield, Wolverhampton South West (ie. seats that were broadly marginal or Tory-held pre-1997 and have also been marginal since 2010)
* Recent marginals eg Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Stoke North, Bassetlaw, Clwyd South (ie seats that were relatively safe for Labour pre-1997 but have moved within reach since 2010)
* Landslide only eg Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, Leigh, Heywood and Middleton, Burnley, Bolsover, West Bromwich East, Stoke Central (ie seats that were Labour-held pre-1997 and were no-hopers during the Cameron years)
Plus there's an separate category of "Seats that should never have been lost in 2017" eg Ipswich, Peterborough, Crewe and Nantwich (Keighley)
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 14, 2021 16:49:10 GMT
One complicating factor in my view is the difference between the electoral version of the 'Red Wall' and the parliamentary version of it. There are definitely some MPs who gained their seats in 2019 off Labour who act like Red Wallers, even if psephologically their constituency isn't technically defined as such. Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington and Bury North all spring to mind immediately, and I'm sure there are more. Edit: On a related note, I'd broadly categorise the 2019 wins into 3: * Historic marginals eg Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington, Stockton South, Bury North, Bolton North East, Birmingham Northfield, Wolverhampton South West (ie. seats that were broadly marginal or Tory-held pre-1997 and have also been marginal since 2010) * Recent marginals eg Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Stoke North, Bassetlaw, Clwyd South (ie seats that were relatively safe for Labour pre-1997 but have moved within reach since 2010) * Landslide only eg Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, Leigh, Heywood and Middleton, Burnley, Bolsover, West Bromwich East, Stoke Central (ie seats that were Labour-held pre-1997 and were no-hopers during the Cameron years) Plus there's an separate category of "Seats that should never have been lost in 2017" eg Ipswich, Peterborough, Crewe and Nantwich (Keighley) Redcar and Burnley are interesting though as they aren't truly landslide only as they were won by the Lib Dems in 2010. |
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Sept 14, 2021 17:09:29 GMT
One complicating factor in my view is the difference between the electoral version of the 'Red Wall' and the parliamentary version of it. There are definitely some MPs who gained their seats in 2019 off Labour who act like Red Wallers, even if psephologically their constituency isn't technically defined as such. Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington and Bury North all spring to mind immediately, and I'm sure there are more. Edit: On a related note, I'd broadly categorise the 2019 wins into 3: * Historic marginals eg Keighley, Dewsbury, Darlington, Stockton South, Bury North, Bolton North East, Birmingham Northfield, Wolverhampton South West (ie. seats that were broadly marginal or Tory-held pre-1997 and have also been marginal since 2010) * Recent marginals eg Bishop Auckland, Don Valley, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Stoke North, Bassetlaw, Clwyd South (ie seats that were relatively safe for Labour pre-1997 but have moved within reach since 2010) * Landslide only eg Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, Leigh, Heywood and Middleton, Burnley, Bolsover, West Bromwich East, Stoke Central (ie seats that were Labour-held pre-1997 and were no-hopers during the Cameron years) Plus there's an separate category of "Seats that should never have been lost in 2017" eg Ipswich, Peterborough, Crewe and Nantwich (Keighley) Redcar and Burnley are interesting though as they aren't truly landslide only as they were won by the Lib Dems in 2010. Yes I did consider that. I’d originally written “and safe until 2019” but then I remembered the Lib Dems. The reason I’ve still included them is that they went fairly convincingly back to Labour after the brief yellow interlude, and the Tories were still only distant contenders in both seats throughout those elections. |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 14, 2021 21:12:01 GMT
The original Red Wall Twitter thread:-
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:-
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 14, 2021 21:21:25 GMT
Regression updated for 2019 (by another chap) and Labour still overperformed in the North:- Did Labour overperform in the North or underperform in the South? |
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