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Post by manchesterman on Jul 6, 2021 15:47:45 GMT
Perhaps greenhert is thinking of The Wash-Severn Estuary line? That puts East Anglia and the Home Counties north of the Thames plus Gloucestershire in "the south" but puts both Brum plus the West Midlands and Notts, Lincs, Leicestershire and Derbyshire in "the midlands". The line is not far off the route of The Fosse Way or the watershed of the Cotswolds if you include the gentle decline of the latter into Northants. I am thinking of the Wash-Severn Estuary line, yes. Last time I heard the Wash to Severn Estuary used in this context was after the 1983 landslide, when IIRC Labour held 3 seats below that line and outside London. I think 2 in Bristol and Slough? Wasnt even that bad in the Corbyn disaster! |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 6, 2021 15:59:31 GMT
I am thinking of the Wash-Severn Estuary line, yes. Last time I heard the Wash to Severn Estuary used in this context was after the 1983 landslide, when IIRC Labour held 3 seats below that line and outside London. I think 2 in Bristol and Slough? Wasnt even that bad in the Corbyn disaster! Also wasn't much made about Ken Weetch holding Ipswich against the tide in 1979 and 1983 then he went and lost it in 1987! |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2021 16:15:08 GMT
I am thinking of the Wash-Severn Estuary line, yes. Last time I heard the Wash to Severn Estuary used in this context was after the 1983 landslide, when IIRC Labour held 3 seats below that line and outside London. I think 2 in Bristol and Slough? Wasnt even that bad in the Corbyn disaster! Bristol South, Ipswich, and Thurrock? |
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2021 16:26:27 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2021 16:32:08 GMT
I am thinking of the Wash-Severn Estuary line, yes. Last time I heard the Wash to Severn Estuary used in this context was after the 1983 landslide, when IIRC Labour held 3 seats below that line and outside London. I think 2 in Bristol and Slough? Wasnt even that bad in the Corbyn disaster! 1983: Bristol SW, Thurrock, Ipswich 1987: Bristol SW, Oxford E, Norwich S 2019: 19 constituencies |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 6, 2021 16:34:55 GMT
Right number, wrong seats  |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 7, 2021 10:37:31 GMT
Last time I heard the Wash to Severn Estuary used in this context was after the 1983 landslide, when IIRC Labour held 3 seats below that line and outside London. I think 2 in Bristol and Slough? Wasnt even that bad in the Corbyn disaster! 1983: Bristol SW, Thurrock, Ipswich 1987: Bristol SW, Oxford E, Norwich S 2019: 19 constituencies The 19 constituencies in question being Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, all four Bristol seats, Cambridge, Canterbury, Exeter, Hove, both Luton seats, Norwich South, Oxford East, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Slough and Southampton Test. Bristol South is the longest consistently Labour-held seat in the south of England outside London, having had uninterrupted Labour representation since 1935. |
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Post by froome on Jul 7, 2021 11:29:49 GMT
1983: Bristol SW, Thurrock, Ipswich 1987: Bristol SW, Oxford E, Norwich S 2019: 19 constituencies The 19 constituencies in question being Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, all four Bristol seats, Cambridge, Canterbury, Exeter, Hove, both Luton seats, Norwich South, Oxford East, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Slough and Southampton Test. Bristol South is the longest consistently Labour-held seat in the south of England outside London, having had uninterrupted Labour representation since 1935. How many London seats have had longer Labour representation than Bristol South? Not many I would have thought (and yes, seats have obviously changed boundaries several times during that period, so it may not be possible to answer that except in the vaguest of terms). |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 7, 2021 11:56:57 GMT
The 19 constituencies in question being Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, all four Bristol seats, Cambridge, Canterbury, Exeter, Hove, both Luton seats, Norwich South, Oxford East, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Slough and Southampton Test. Bristol South is the longest consistently Labour-held seat in the south of England outside London, having had uninterrupted Labour representation since 1935. How many London seats have had longer Labour representation than Bristol South? Not many I would have thought (and yes, seats have obviously changed boundaries several times during that period, so it may not be possible to answer that except in the vaguest of terms). Boundaries do complicate it but I'd say the longest continuous Labour seats in London are: 1= Poplar and Limehouse, West Ham - 1922 3 Vauxhall - 1934 4= Barking, Dagenham and Rainham, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Islington South and Finsbury (which must be removed if counting defections), Lewisham Deptford, Tottenham - 1935 10 Camberwell and Peckham - 1936 11 Islington North - 1937 |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2021 19:10:01 GMT
Four by-elections in this PARLIAMENT to date. | Percentage | Vote (2019 election) | Party | Place | Party | Vote (by-elections) | Percentage | | 36.32 | 68,799 | Conservative | 1 | Conservative | 44,803 | 35.16 | | 30.59 | 57,952 | Labour | 2 | Labour | 30,879 | 24.24 | | 10.67 | 20,204 | Lib Dem | 3 | Lib Dem | 23,340 | 18.32 | | 9.47 | 17,929 | SNP | 4 | SNP | 10,129 | 7.95 | | 6.48 | 12,281 | Brexit | 5 | Workers | 8,264 | 6.49 | | 3.40 | 6,432 | Heavy Woollen Ind | 6 | Ind S. Lee | 2,904 | 2.28 | | 1.97 | 3,734 | Green E&W | 7 | Green E&W | 1,838 | 1.44 | | 0.48 | 911 | Ind J Bousfield | 8 | Reform | 827 | 0.65 | | 0.36 | 685 | Scottish Greens | 9 | Yorkshire | 816 | 0.64 | | 0.26 | 494 | Socialist Labour | 10 | Heritage | 501 | 0.39 |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 13, 2021 13:46:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2021 16:20:02 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 14, 2021 16:22:49 GMT
Ah but Kingston upon Hull showed a swing to Labour didn't it? |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 14, 2021 17:26:37 GMT
Also the analogy fails because in 66 England WON the World Cup final but in 2021 England LOST the Euro Championship final. Also, Labour won a GE in 1966, I fail to see them winning one in 2021  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2021 17:51:45 GMT
What could have been...
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Post by greenhert on Jul 15, 2021 15:37:55 GMT
The majority achieved in the recent Batley & Spen by-election is the lowest in a UK parliamentary by-election for 35 years, and the 10th lowest on record since universal suffrage began.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2021 18:18:14 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jul 22, 2021 22:13:06 GMT
If the British House of Commons had a ratio of MPs:population similar to that of the Republic of Ireland (which has 160 TDs representing just under 5 million people), it would need as many as 2,135 MPs to represent the population fairly.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 22, 2021 22:24:54 GMT
The majority achieved in the recent Batley & Spen by-election is the lowest in a UK parliamentary by-election for 35 years, and the 10th lowest on record since universal suffrage began. It must have been very close to the majority in Glasgow East in 2008. The previous lowest must have been the 100 vote majority in West Derbyshire in 1986 when Matthew Parris stood down. Correct. The 57-vote record low majority set in the Berwick-upon-Tweed by-election of 1973 still has not been broken 48 years later (nor has the record 44.2% swing of the Bermondsey by-election of 1983, another notable Liberal gain). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 0:16:25 GMT
If the British House of Commons had a ratio of MPs:population similar to that of the Republic of Ireland (which has 160 TDs representing just under 5 million people), it would need as many as 2,135 MPs to represent the population fairly. I suspect that that might cause an overflow error on BoundaryAssistant. |
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