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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2021 3:16:33 GMT
For three years I held the record for the lowest number of votes gained by any Conservative, Labour or Liberal (Democrat) candidate going back to the formation of the current Newcastle City council in 1973. I believe I hold that distinction in relation to Cambridge City council and have done so for twenty three years |
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 2, 2021 5:52:22 GMT
For three years I held the record for the lowest number of votes gained by any Conservative, Labour or Liberal (Democrat) candidate going back to the formation of the current Newcastle City council in 1973. I believe I hold that distinction in relation to Cambridge City council and have done so for twenty three years I never knew you fought there, Pete. Having a look*, I see your misfortune was to be squeezed to 77 votes by the Lib Dems, although the previous half-decent result for the Conservatives in Romsey ward was in May 1992, and the majority of the squeezing had already taken place by 1998. Your 77 reminds me of the first two times I stood in Leavesden in 2008, when I secured, you will remember, 79 (parish) and 72 (district)! * Colin Rosentiel and Jo Edkins (ed.), Cambridge City Council Election Results Since 1935. (Well worth ordering at only £6!) |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2021 9:28:12 GMT
Could be-surprising finding though(to me anyway) There's mention of the soon to be published Nuffield. Perhaps more meat will be put on the bone. It is an odd stat. The very oldest people were also significantly more likely to vote remain in the 2016 referendum, compared to those born in the 1940s and 50s. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 2, 2021 9:31:20 GMT
There's mention of the soon to be published Nuffield. Perhaps more meat will be put on the bone. It is an odd stat. The very oldest people were also significantly more likely to vote remain in the 2016 referendum, compared to those born in the 1940s and 50s. implored to vote remain by adult grandchildren? I don't doubt these voters have their own minds but it's something I can picture. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2021 9:32:32 GMT
Maybe, but many have speculated actually remembering WW2 is a factor.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2021 16:16:01 GMT
Most elections tend to have some constituencies where a party wins despite getting a lower vote share than their national (UK-wide or constituent nation) average - it would be interesting to know if there's ever been a UK general election without any.
But to go one step further, using Brexit results from Hanretty estimates (marked with an asterisk) unless actual results were available:
Ynys Môn was won by the Conservatives in 2019 on a lower vote share than both their Welsh and UK-wide average, was won by Labour in 2017 on a lower share than their Welsh average, and it voted for Brexit but by a lower margin than Wales/the whole UK.
High Peak, Warrington South* and Watford* were won by the Conservatives in 2019 on a lower vote share than the England average, and they voted for Brexit but by a lower margin than the England average (and the UK as a whole). The Watford Conservative share in 2017 also nearly made the cut - just .2% above average.
Hazel Grove* was won by the Conservatives in 2017 on a lower vote share than the England average (<0.02% lower, though!), and it voted for Brexit by a lower margin than the England, but not UK, average.
There are a fair few constituencies which voted to remain by a margin lower than the Scotland average and voted for the SNP but with a lower percentage than the Scottish average in 2017 and/or 2019. However, given that the SNP won a strong majority of electoral contests in Scotland over those two elections, and as all but one Scottish constituency was estimated to have voted to remain, this isn't too surprising. There are no Northern Ireland seats which fit this criteria for any party.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2021 16:31:50 GMT
Conservative 1st, Lib Dem 2nd was a common result in the rural South in the 2019 election. But the longest record of consistent Conservative 1st, Lib Dem/Alliance/Liberal 2nd results is West Dorset, which has ended up that way since Feb 1974 inclusive. North Wiltshire has also always been that way since its creation in 1983, and it's closest predecessor constituency seems to be an old Chippenham constituency - which would take it back to the 1962 by-election. I'm fairly sure that no others come close - I think Vauxhall was the only other Lib Dem 2nd place in 2017 in a seat the party has never won. It would be interesting to know what the longest Con-Lab, Lab-Con, Con-Lab-Lib and Lab-Con-Lib runs are.
Edit: Both West Dorset and North Wiltshire saw their Con-Lib-Lab run broken in 2015 with a UKIP 3rd place. I think Winchester and Romsey & Southampton North have the longest Con-Lib-Lab runs - 2010 to present.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 2, 2021 16:46:48 GMT
Conservative 1st, Lib Dem 2nd was a common result in the rural South in the 2019 election. But the longest record of consistent Conservative 1st, Lib Dem/Alliance/Liberal 2nd results is West Dorset, which has ended up that way since Feb 1974 inclusive. North Wiltshire has also always been that way since its creation in 1983, and it's closest predecessor constituency seems to be an old Chippenham constituency - which would take it back to the 1962 by-election. I'm fairly sure that no others come close - I think Vauxhall was the only other Lib Dem 2nd place in 2017 in a seat the party has never won. It would be interesting to know what the longest Con-Lab, Lab-Con, Con-Lab-Lib and Lab-Con-Lib runs are.
Edit: Both West Dorset and North Wiltshire saw their Con-Lib-Lab run broken in 2015 with a UKIP 3rd place. I think Winchester and Romsey & Southampton North have the longest Con-Lib-Lab runs - 2010 to present.
That is correct. In most of the rural south where this was the case, however, the Liberal Democrats were not in a position to win the seat, if by rural south you mean south of the Wash and outside Greater London. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 2, 2021 16:50:59 GMT
Maybe, but many have speculated actually remembering WW2 is a factor. believing like Heath it would keep peace in Europe? |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 2, 2021 18:09:18 GMT
Maybe, but many have speculated actually remembering WW2 is a factor. believing like Heath it would keep peace in Europe? We'll never know but i don't Heath was right |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 2, 2021 19:32:57 GMT
Conservative 1st, Lib Dem 2nd was a common result in the rural South in the 2019 election. But the longest record of consistent Conservative 1st, Lib Dem/Alliance/Liberal 2nd results is West Dorset, which has ended up that way since Feb 1974 inclusive. North Wiltshire has also always been that way since its creation in 1983, and it's closest predecessor constituency seems to be an old Chippenham constituency - which would take it back to the 1962 by-election. I'm fairly sure that no others come close - I think Vauxhall was the only other Lib Dem 2nd place in 2017 in a seat the party has never won. It would be interesting to know what the longest Con-Lab, Lab-Con, Con-Lab-Lib and Lab-Con-Lib runs are.
Edit: Both West Dorset and North Wiltshire saw their Con-Lib-Lab run broken in 2015 with a UKIP 3rd place. I think Winchester and Romsey & Southampton North have the longest Con-Lib-Lab runs - 2010 to present.
That is correct. In most of the rural south where this was the case, however, the Liberal Democrats were not in a position to win the seat, if by rural south you mean south of the Wash and outside Greater London.
Rural South includes most of the Midlands? My word.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 2, 2021 23:35:53 GMT
That is correct. In most of the rural south where this was the case, however, the Liberal Democrats were not in a position to win the seat, if by rural south you mean south of the Wash and outside Greater London.
Rural South includes most of the Midlands? My word.
No, I did not say that. "South of the Wash and outside Greater London" means the East of England, South East England, and South West England. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 2, 2021 23:45:12 GMT
Rural South includes most of the Midlands? My word.
No, I did not say that. "South of the Wash and outside Greater London" means the East of England, South East England, and South West England. Birmingham is "South of the Wash and outside Greater London". |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 3, 2021 0:29:19 GMT
No, I did not say that. "South of the Wash and outside Greater London" means the East of England, South East England, and South West England. Birmingham is "South of the Wash and outside Greater London". Perhaps greenhert is thinking of The Wash-Severn Estuary line? That puts East Anglia and the Home Counties north of the Thames plus Gloucestershire in "the south" but puts both Brum plus the West Midlands and Notts, Lincs, Leicestershire and Derbyshire in "the midlands". The line is not far off the route of The Fosse Way or the watershed of the Cotswolds if you include the gentle decline of the latter into Northants. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 3, 2021 5:24:49 GMT
Birmingham is "South of the Wash and outside Greater London". Perhaps greenhert is thinking of The Wash-Severn Estuary line? That puts East Anglia and the Home Counties north of the Thames plus Gloucestershire in "the south" but puts both Brum plus the West Midlands and Notts, Lincs, Leicestershire and Derbyshire in "the midlands". The line is not far off the route of The Fosse Way or the watershed of the Cotswolds if you include the gentle decline of the latter into Northants.
Probably but even then, to me, East Anglia is not rural southern England.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 3, 2021 8:27:17 GMT
Perhaps greenhert is thinking of The Wash-Severn Estuary line? That puts East Anglia and the Home Counties north of the Thames plus Gloucestershire in "the south" but puts both Brum plus the West Midlands and Notts, Lincs, Leicestershire and Derbyshire in "the midlands". The line is not far off the route of The Fosse Way or the watershed of the Cotswolds if you include the gentle decline of the latter into Northants.
Probably but even then, to me, East Anglia is not rural southern England.
East Anglia is East Anglia, and that's it! But if it can't be treated separately then I'd suggest it is fairly typical southern rural England on grounds of - no conurbations, extensive agriculture - coastal (which is typical of the south outside the Thames valley) - accent - lowland topography Economically the influence of Cambridge has an affect a bit like a mini-London. It's not terribly easy to get into East Anglia from anywhere but I'd suggest it is easier to get to from London and the SE than from most of the midlands or the north (I have friends who used to spend Christmas going from one set of in-laws in Norfolk to the other in Lancashire, it was insane!) |
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cj
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Post by cj on Jul 3, 2021 18:32:17 GMT
Probably but even then, to me, East Anglia is not rural southern England.
East Anglia is East Anglia, and that's it! But if it can't be treated separately then I'd suggest it is fairly typical southern rural England on grounds of - no conurbations, extensive agriculture - coastal (which is typical of the south outside the Thames valley) - accent - lowland topography Economically the influence of Cambridge has an affect a bit like a mini-London. It's not terribly easy to get into East Anglia from anywhere but I'd suggest it is easier to get to from London and the SE than from most of the midlands or the north (I have friends who used to spend Christmas going from one set of in-laws in Norfolk to the other in Lancashire, it was insane!) If we can't be treated separately we have just a strong a case to be considered Friesland as southern England |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 3, 2021 18:56:24 GMT
Birmingham is "South of the Wash and outside Greater London". Perhaps greenhert is thinking of The Wash-Severn Estuary line? That puts East Anglia and the Home Counties north of the Thames plus Gloucestershire in "the south" but puts both Brum plus the West Midlands and Notts, Lincs, Leicestershire and Derbyshire in "the midlands". The line is not far off the route of The Fosse Way or the watershed of the Cotswolds if you include the gentle decline of the latter into Northants. I am thinking of the Wash-Severn Estuary line, yes. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 3, 2021 21:21:31 GMT
3 of the last 12 (25%)
4 of the last 80 (5%)
5 of the last 148 (3.4%)
parliamentary by-elections have been on the 1st day of the month
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2021 14:56:44 GMT
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