European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,525
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 24, 2020 16:52:24 GMT
Graphs comparing Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) scores to the three major parties' share of the vote in England. I put them together to debunk the "Labour is losing the working class" myth to somebody to debunk that you'd have to show the correlation hasn't declined, and I don't think you can do that anymore after 2019. Nice graphs though! I was putting together 2017 when I fell asleep at my laptop. To go back any further I'd need different data
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,525
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 24, 2020 16:54:55 GMT
Graphs comparing Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) scores to the three major parties' share of the vote in England. I put them together to debunk the "Labour is losing the working class" myth to somebody It may debunk the "Labour is losing the deprived vote" from those graphs, but you haven't provided any evidence to refute (or support) "Labour is losing the working class vote". I chose to use IMD because it's closest thing to a reliable quantitive measure of social class. It has problems, but it's better than just about any other measure.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,625
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 24, 2020 20:23:44 GMT
It may debunk the "Labour is losing the deprived vote" from those graphs, but you haven't provided any evidence to refute (or support) "Labour is losing the working class vote". I chose to use IMD because it's closest thing to a reliable quantitive measure of social class. It has problems, but it's better than just about any other measure. I used to have arguments with Labour councillors proposing "we need to give money to the working class", me: "why should we be giving money to my plumber who's on 80 grand a year? why not me on nine grand?"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2020 8:47:16 GMT
Cumulative totals for parties standing in the Preston North, and Preston South, constituencies between 1950 and 1979. Preston North (left hand side) would perhaps be called "Fulwood and Preston East" these days. The Urban District of Fulwood was added to Deepdale, Ribbleton and Fishwick. Preston South (right hand side) is the predecessor to the modern day Preston. The Urban District of Walton-le-Dale was added to Avenham, Ashton, and the wards to the west. 48.55 | 202,987 | Conservative | 1 | Labour | 198,268 | 48.24 | 46.65 | 195,065 | Labour | 2 | Conservative | 193,533 | 47.09 | 4.60 | 19,232 | Liberal | 3 | Liberal | 18,055 | 4.39 | 0.09 | 366 | Communist | 4 | National Front | 921 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 329 | National Front | 5 | WRP | 116 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 138 | More Prosperous Britain | 6 | More Prosperous Britain | 87 | 0.02 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2020 9:13:03 GMT
The Conservatives polled the most votes in England in every General Election since World War II except 1945, 1966, 1997 and 2001. Not so much 'Interesting electoral facts' as 'false electoral assertions'. The Conservatives were outpolled by Labour in England in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1966, October 1974, 1997, and 2001. Labour also won a majority of English seats in 2005 despite being outpolled by the Tories very narrowly.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2020 20:22:43 GMT
Unless something quite radical changes, 2020 is looking likely to be the second calendar year without any Westminster elections, following 1998.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 27, 2020 20:30:15 GMT
Interesting (morbid) thought. If an MP dies tomorrow, I wonder what would transpire? I presume there would HAVE to be a by-election, but how would it be run? Postal votes only? No voting without a mask if at a polling station? could the polling officers refuse to hand over a voting slip if voter not wearing a mask? Who would enforce it? What about hustings? Lots of extraordinary things to be considered?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2020 20:37:02 GMT
Interesting (morbid) thought. If an MP dies tomorrow, I wonder what would transpire? I presume there would HAVE to be a by-election, but how would it be run? Postal votes only? No voting without a mask if at a polling station? could the polling officers refuse to hand over a voting slip if voter not wearing a mask? Who would enforce it? What about hustings? Lots of extraordinary things to be considered? I think this is covered by S.61 of the Coronavirus Act.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 27, 2020 20:39:38 GMT
Excellent. Care to give a brief precis?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2020 20:41:11 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 27, 2020 20:58:26 GMT
There is no legal requirement to hold a by-election. Even in normal circumstances, there has been delays of up to six months before a by-election was held, so I suspect the seat would be left vacant, at least for a few months and then see what the situation is then.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 27, 2020 20:59:12 GMT
Interesting (morbid) thought. If an MP dies tomorrow, I wonder what would transpire? I presume there would HAVE to be a by-election, but how would it be run? Postal votes only? No voting without a mask if at a polling station? could the polling officers refuse to hand over a voting slip if voter not wearing a mask? Who would enforce it? What about hustings? Lots of extraordinary things to be considered? As Dok notes Westminster by-elections aren't covered by the Coronavirus Act. However they can be delayed indefinitely if no MP moves the writ, since the legal timescale doesn't start ticking until then. The only circumstance where a Westminster by-election timetable is currently forced by law is when an MP is subject to a recall petition.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2020 21:07:20 GMT
This part of the Coronavirus Act does not cover parliamentary by-elections, only local elections, Police & Crime Commissioner elections, mayoral elections, and London Assembly elections in single member constituencies.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2020 21:08:38 GMT
There is no legal requirement to hold a by-election. Even in normal circumstances, there has been delays of up to six months before a by-election was held, so I suspect the seat would be left vacant, at least for a few months and then see what the situation is then. There should be in such a circumstance. After all, both Canada and the Republic of Ireland require vacant parliamentary seats to be filled within six months of the vacancy commencing.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2020 21:14:08 GMT
Cheers chaps.
MancMan - the answer is: convention will decide what happens, and when, in a most traditionally British way.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2020 21:14:49 GMT
There is no legal requirement to hold a by-election. Even in normal circumstances, there has been delays of up to six months before a by-election was held, so I suspect the seat would be left vacant, at least for a few months and then see what the situation is then. There should be in such a circumstance. After all, both Canada and the Republic of Ireland require vacant parliamentary seats to be filled within six months of the vacancy commencing. One of the "go to" topics on this forum when we get around to administrative reform.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 27, 2020 21:36:31 GMT
lol thanks all
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 27, 2020 21:39:02 GMT
Seems strange that a by-election can be put off "indefinitely". After all we are around 4 years from a GE, so the relevant constituents shouldnt go unrepresented for that length of time. I'm surprised there are no specific regulations in place regarding such circumstances.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 27, 2020 23:18:53 GMT
Interesting (morbid) thought. If an MP dies tomorrow, I wonder what would transpire? I presume there would HAVE to be a by-election, but how would it be run? Postal votes only? No voting without a mask if at a polling station? could the polling officers refuse to hand over a voting slip if voter not wearing a mask? Who would enforce it? What about hustings? Lots of extraordinary things to be considered? As Dok notes Westminster by-elections aren't covered by the Coronavirus Act. However they can be delayed indefinitely if no MP moves the writ, since the legal timescale doesn't start ticking until then. The only circumstance where a Westminster by-election timetable is currently forced by law is when an MP is subject to a recall petition. Ah but what if any old MP who didn't agree with the delay tried to move the writ? And do the rules still allow an MP who doesn't like a particular Private Member's Bill to move the writ to filibuster it?
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Post by froome on Jul 28, 2020 5:03:33 GMT
As Dok notes Westminster by-elections aren't covered by the Coronavirus Act. However they can be delayed indefinitely if no MP moves the writ, since the legal timescale doesn't start ticking until then. The only circumstance where a Westminster by-election timetable is currently forced by law is when an MP is subject to a recall petition. Ah but what if any old MP who didn't agree with the delay tried to move the writ? And do the rules still allow an MP who doesn't like a particular Private Member's Bill to move the writ to filibuster it? Yes, I wondered that. If a writ is moved, does parliament have any powers to overturn that? I assume not. I agree with manchesterman that it is strange there are no protocols in place which ensure a by-election does take place within a set time limit.
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