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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2020 10:35:57 GMT
It was one of the closest with a majority of 285 but Bristol North West was lower amongst Tory/Labour marginals at 137. The smallest margin for them though was 5 in Eastbourne. On the whole the Conservatives came off slightly worse in the really close contests
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 5, 2020 18:12:48 GMT
Bexley 1970
Con 53.0% Lab 37.2% Lib 6.3% Oth 3.5%
Uxbridge 2019
Con 52.6% Lab 37.6% Lib 6.3% Oth 3.5%
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2020 8:48:37 GMT
Bexley 1970 Con 53.0% Lab 37.2% Lib 6.3% Oth 3.5% Uxbridge 2019 Con 52.6% Lab 37.6% Lib 6.3% Oth 3.5% wow
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 14, 2020 14:10:19 GMT
On a similar theme, the percentage share for each of the three parties were identical, to two decimal places, in the neighbouring seats of Grantham and Holland with Boston in 1979: Con 55.52 Lab 28.06 Lib 16.42
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2020 6:47:00 GMT
Four election average 2010-2019 Con | 331 | Lab | 240 | SNP | 44 | LD | 13 | DUP | 9 | SF | 5 | SDLP | 3 | PC | 3 | Grn | 1 | Ind | 1 | |
Average Labour majority of 12 in Derby North Average LD majority of 0.25 in Oxford West & Abingdon I thought it might be interesting to repeat this exercise on some earlier sets of boundaries (and I was right) Here is 1950-51 Con 311 Lab 307 Lib 6 Nat 1 So very close as one would expect given that the first election produced a small Labour majority and the second a small Conservative one. Of course Labour won the popular vote in both elections. Labour does have a majority of 1 in Great Britain - Lab 307, Con 300, Lib 6 - and it is the 11 Unionist seats in Northern Ireland which put the Conservatives ahead. I guess at this time the Liberals would have been more inclined to support a Conservative minority government given that a number of their MPs were returned with effective Conservative support (eg in Huddersfield West) The Nationalist, not shown on the map, is an Independent Irish Nationalist in Fermanagh & South Tyrone
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 23, 2020 10:31:37 GMT
There was much consternation among psephologists that the 'Cube Law' didn't hold for the 1950/51 elections. Certainly the candidature pattern (the informal Con-Lib pact, a fair few Libs were well to the right), Northern Irish contests and seat sizes (slight overrepresentation of rural areas) hurt Labour but their main disadvantage was piling up too many votes in their heartlands. If Labour's vote reduced by 4% (the excess in their safe seats) and hey presto 'Cube Law' returns. This paper, albeit in French but fairly easy to translate, explains more:- www.dropbox.com/sh/ky384z44nictlxp/AACjeSlTSsfR-BBNS1pP8iQPa?dl=0
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 23, 2020 10:57:40 GMT
The five election average for 1955-1970 presents a similar situation Con 317 Lab 308 Lib 5 This time Labour won a plurality, but not a majority, of seats in Great Britian (Lab 308, Con 305) and it is the Northern Ireland seats (all 12 this time) which give the Conservatives a majority across the UK. Similarly Labour won a small plurality of votes in Great Britain (45.8% vs 45.7% - a numerical lead of around 35,000) but Northern Ireland enabled a Conservative popular vote win across the UK
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2020 11:54:24 GMT
Only five Liberal seats stands out there, given they always won more than that at each individual GE (maximum of 12 IIRC)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 24, 2020 6:49:54 GMT
1974-79 three election average Con 300 Lab 300 Lib 13 UUP 7 SNP 7 PC 3 VU 3 DUP 1 SDLP 1 Basically February 1974 - a mess. The Conservatives do have a popular vote lead of around half a million (1.5%) but of course these boundaries were unhelpful because of the continued over-representation of inner-city areas etc Northern Ireland seats are: Vanguard: Belfast East, Belfast South, Mid Ulster. DUP: North Antrim. SDLP: Belfast West. UUP the rest
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 24, 2020 17:52:59 GMT
Comparing 1964 (Lab lead 0.7% - won) with 1951 (Lab lead 0.8% -lost). The boundary changes (First Periodic Review) probably gave the Tories a boost of eight seats and cost Labour three seats. Another three counstituencies in Northern Ireland shifted to the Unionists. The Liberal performance cost the Tories six seats but Labour gained three from the Libs. If there had been no other changes - Con 326, Lab 295, Lib 9 - but Labour's vote was much more efficient. Up in the North West (12) and Scotland (8), a continuation of the 1959 trend, and further advances compared to 1951 in London (3), Yorks (3), North East (2), South East (2) and East (1). Conservative gains in East Mids (1), South West (3) and the West Mids (5). www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/rh6nt26pz620fa06tbkxn/cf-51-64.ods?dl=0&rlkey=3j20ym6vencywj6q58q46hcjj
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 25, 2020 11:37:45 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Mar 28, 2020 21:29:47 GMT
This was in the Somerton & Frome thread, but it deserves a wider audience: I just spotted this as well. Makes me wonder if any candidate has ever got exactly the same number of votes at two different GEs. In Ilford North, T. L. I. S. V. Iremonger (Conservative) got 19,843 votes in February 1974, and 19,843 votes in October 1974. Mrs M. Miller (Labour) got 19,558 and 20,621 respectively G. L. P. Wilson (Liberal) got 12,063 and 8,080 respectively
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Post by greenhert on Apr 4, 2020 13:23:51 GMT
In the Labour leadership election, Sir Keir Starmer received the votes of 104,000 more Labour members in 2020 than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2015 with regards to leadership elections in the Labour Party, even though it was under Mr Corbyn's tenure that Labour membership reached a peak of 550,000.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 5, 2020 20:00:58 GMT
In the Labour leadership election, Sir Keir Starmer received the votes of 104,000 more Labour members in 2020 than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2015 with regards to leadership elections in the Labour Party, even though it was under Mr Corbyn's tenure that Labour membership reached a peak of 550,000. Starmer got a lot of votes from affiliated members. All the same comparing successive Labour leadership elections can be tricky as the rules, and therefore the electorate, keep changing.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 9, 2020 16:07:51 GMT
The Workers Party of [North] Korea has 2 million members, out of a total population of 25m.
Figures for other parties are unavailable.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 9, 2020 16:08:47 GMT
The Workers Party of [North] Korea has 2 million members, out of a total population of 25m. Figures for other parties are unavailable. And none of them - absolutely none of them - are in arrears.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 9, 2020 16:11:20 GMT
The Workers Party of [North] Korea has 2 million members, out of a total population of 25m. Figures for other parties are unavailable.
Are the other 23M members of affiliate organisations?
👽
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 9, 2020 20:25:50 GMT
1918-45 - 8 election average Con 359 Lab 209 Lib 26 N Lib 8 Ind 1 (not including University seats)
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Post by johnloony on Apr 9, 2020 20:50:11 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 9, 2020 22:04:29 GMT
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