Prediction Competition - November 2024

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 45 by-elections including one double election to be held during November.

- 9 by-elections on 7 November
- 12 on 14 November
- 15 on 21 November
- 9 including the double on 28 November

15 by-elections are for Scottish councils, all last contested in 2022
10 are for unitary authorities, 2 last contested in May, 7 in 2023, 1 in 2022, and 1 with a 2024 by-election with the last full election in 2022
9 are for district councils, 2 last contested in May and 7 in 2023
6 including the double are for London borough councils, all last contested in 2022
3 are for county councils, 2 last contested in 2022 and 1 in 2021
2 are for metropolitan councils, both last contested in May

Labour defend 24 seats including both in the double, 20 following a resignation (1 of which was sitting as a No Description, 1 as a Sheffield Community Councillor) and 4 following the death of the previous councillor
Liberal Democrats defend 10 seats, 8 following a resignation and 2 following the death of the previous councillor
SNP defend 4 seats, all following resignations
Conservatives defend 2 seats, both following a resignation
Greens defend 2 seats, both following a resignation
Swancombe and Greenhithe Residents Association defend 2 seats, both following the death of the previous councillor
Swale Independents defend 1 seat following a disqualification (sitting as an Independent)
Independents defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 46 Conservative candidates, 43 Labour, 40 Liberal Democrats, 31 Reform UK, 27 Greens, 15 SNP, 10 Scottish Greens, 5 Scottish Family Party, 3 TUSC, 3 Heritage Party, 2 Alba, 2 Scottish Libertarians and 2 Swancombe and Greenhithe Residents Association along with 1 apiece for Workers Party, Social Democratic Party, Ilford Independents, Swale Independents, Socialist Party of Great Britain and Communist Party of Britain together with 13 Independents and 5 No Description contesting 13 elections – a total of 253 candidates for 46 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. Top vote for the double election and specify both winners; and both first pref and winner after transfers for Scottish elections.

[Tony Otim]

Central Buchan: Con 43.8; SNP 27.1; LD 13.5; Ref 10.5; Ward 3.4; SFP 1.7
Fraserburgh & District: Con 45.8; SNP 24.4; Ref 15.5; LD 13.3; SFP 1.0
Mearns: Con 40.9; SNP 33.3; LD 11.9; Ref 8.0; Grn 5.9 (all 3 Con wins after transfers)
Blackpool: Con 31.8; Ref 27.8; Lab 23.8; Scott 8.3; Grn 4.6; LD 3.7
Bracknell: Lab 47.5; Con 27.8; Gbadebo 13.7; Ref 9.7; Heritage 1.3
Herefordshire: Grn 61.2; Con 22.4; Ref 8.9; LD 5.0; Lab 2.5
Inverclyde: Lab 39.5; SNP 31.3; Ref 14.7; Con 9.2; Alba 5.3 (Lab win)
Moray: Lab 36.3; SNP 32.4; Con 26.5; LD 4.8 (Lab win)
Wyre: Con 44.6; Lab 26.0; Ref 21.6; Grn 7.8

[batman]

ABERDEENSHIRE, Central Buchan : C 39 SNP 25 LD 21 Ind 7 RefUK 6 SFP 2. C win

ABERDEENSHIRE, Fraserburgh & District : C 56 SNP 26 RefUK 11 LD 6 SFP 1

ABERDEENSHIRE, Mearns : C 42 SNP 41 LD 8 RefUK 5 Green 4. C win

BLACKPOOL, Bispham : C 41 Lab 24 RefUK 19 Ind 7 Green 5 LD 4

BRACKNELL, Great Hollands : Lab 46 C 22 RefUK 16 Ind 14 Heritage 2

HEREFORDSHIRE, Bishops Frome & Cradley : Green 60 C 26 RefUK 7 LD 4 Lab 3

INVERCLYDE, Inverclyde W. : Lab 46 SNP 37 C 9 RefUK 5 Alba 3. Lab win

MORAY, Elgin City S. : Lab 37 SNP 33 C 26 LD 4. Lab win

WYRE, Marsh Mill : C 49 Lab 20 RefUK 19 Green 12

[kevinf]

Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan
Con 43, SNP 28, LD 12, Ind 11, Ref 5.5, SFP 0.5 Con win
Aberdeenshire Fraserburgh
Con 46, SNP 25, Ref 17, LD 11.5, SFP 0.5. Con win
Aberdeenshire Mearns
Con 38, SNP 27, LD 20, Ref 10, Green 5. Con win.
Blackpool
Con 33, Ref 23, Lab 21, LD 9, Green 8, Ind 5
Bracknell Forest
Lab 45, Con 28, Ref 15, Ind 10.5, Heritage 1.5
Herefordshire
Green 52, Con 23, Ref 11, LD 9, Lab 5
Inverclyde
SNP 38, Lab 37, Con 12, Ref 8.5, Alba 4.5 Lab win
Moray
Con 35, SNP 32, Lab 27, LD 6
Wyre
Con 35, Lab 30, Red 26, Green 9

[Robert Waller]

Central Buchan: Con 37; SNP 32; LD 19; Ref 6; Ward 5; SFP 1 (Con win after transfers)

Fraserburgh & District: Con 41; SNP 40; Ref 10; LD 8; SFP 1 (Con win after transfers)

Mearns: Con 38; SNP 33; LD 13; Ref 7; Grn 9 (Con win after transfers)

Blackpool: Con 37; Ref 23; Lab 25; Scott 5; Grn 5; LD 5

Bracknell: Lab 44; Con 31; Gbadebo 7; Ref 16; Heritage 2

Herefordshire: Grn 56; Con 25; Ref 8; LD 8; Lab 3

Inverclyde: Lab 41; SNP 35; Ref 5; Con 16; Alba 3 (Lab win after transfers)

Moray: Lab 33; SNP 32; Con 27; LD 8 (Lab win after transfers)

Wyre: Con 45; Lab 25; Ref 20; Grn 10

[andrewp]

Central Buchan. Con 36 SNP 33 LD 15 RefUK 9 Ind 5 SFP 2 . Con win

Fraserburgh, Con 41 SNP 34 LD 12 RefUK 11 SFP 2 . Con win

Mearns, Con 36 SNP 35 LD 14 RefUK 10 Green 5. Con win

Blackpool. RefUK 29 Lab 25 Con 22 Ind 16 LD 5 Green 3

Bracknell Forest, Lab 44 REF Uk 23 Con 23 Ind 8 Heritage 2

Herefordshire, Green 54 Con 28 REfUK 10 LD 5 Lab 3

Inverclyde, Lab 42 SNP 37 Con 11 RefUK 7 Alba 3. Lab win

Moray, SNP 34 Lab 31 Con 28 LD 7. Lab win

Wyre. Con 37 Lab 30 REfUK 24 Green 9

[corradino]

Central Buchan: Con 34, SNP 28, LD 15.5, Ind 13, Reform 8, SFP 1.5. Con win.

Fraserburgh: Con 40, Reform 26, SNP 24, LD 8, SFP 2. Con win.

Mearns: Con 36, SNP 32, Reform 14, LD 12, Green 6. Con win.

Blackpool, Bispham: Lab 29, Con 28, Reform 28, Ind 9, LD 3, Green 3.

Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab 38, Con 32, Reform 25, Heritage 3, Ind 2.

Herefordshire, Bishops Frome: Green 54, Con 27, Reform 12, LD 5.5, Lab 1.5.

Inverclyde West: Lab 37, SNP 34, Reform 14, Con 13, Alba 2. Lab win.

Moray, Elgin City South: SNP 39, Lab 29, Con 26, LD 6. Lab win.

Wyre, Marsh Mill: Con 40, Reform 30, Lab 25, Green 5.

[rightleaning]

ABERDEENSHIRE, Central Buchan : C 41, SNP 27, LD 17, Ind 7, RefUK 7, SFP 1. C win
ABERDEENSHIRE, Fraserburgh & District : C 51, SNP 31, RefUK 13, LD 4, SFP 1 C win
ABERDEENSHIRE, Mearns : C 44, SNP 41, RefUK 7, LD 5, Green 3. C win
BLACKPOOL, Bispham : C 44, Lab 23, RefUK 21, Green 5, Ind 4, LD 3
BRACKNELL, Great Hollands : Lab 40, C 31, RefUK 18, Ind 10, Heritage 1
HEREFORDSHIRE, Bishops Frome & Cradley : Green 63, C 24, RefUK 6, LD 4, Lab 3
INVERCLYDE, Inverclyde W. : Lab 44, SNP 40, C 10, RefUK 4, Alba 2. Lab win
MORAY, Elgin City S. : Lab 38, SNP 34, C 24, LD 4. Lab win
WYRE, Marsh Mill : C 46, Lab 23, RefUK 18, Green 13

[sanders]

Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan - C 31 SNP 29 LD 17 IND 13 RFM 8 SFP 2 (Con win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Fraseburgh & District - RFM 35 SNP 32 CON 25 LD 7 SFP 1 (Reform win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Mearns - CON 36 SNP 29 RFM 14 LD 14 GRN 7 (Con win on transfers)

Blackpool, Bispham - CON 44, LAB 36, RFM 15, GRN 2, LD 2, IND 1 

Bracknell, Great Hollands - LAB 34, CON 32, RFM 17, IND 16, HERITAGE 1

Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley - GRN 43, CON 32, RFM 16, LAB 6, LD 3

Inverclyde, Inverclyde West - LAB 47, SNP 31, CON 14, RFM 6, ALBA 2 (Lab win on transfers)

Moray, Elgin City South - CON 38 SNP 35, LAB 18, LD 9 (Con win on transfers)

Wyre, Marsh Mill - CON 32, LAB 30, RFM 21, GRN 17

[iainbhx]

Aberdeenshire UA, Central Buchan : Con 28 SNP 26 LDm 20 RefUK 14 Ind Ward 10 SFP 2 - Con win on transfers
Aberdeenshire UA, Fraserburgh & District: Con 36 RefUK 28 SNP 24 LDm 10 SFP 2 - Con win on transfers
Aberdeenshire UA, Mearns : Con 31 LDm 28 SNP 24 RefUK 10 Grn 7 - Con win on Transfers
Blackpool UA, Bispham : RefUK 39 Lab 24 Con 22 Ind Scott 8 LDm 4 Grn 3
Bracknell Forest UA, Great Hollands: Lab 45 Con 26 RefUK 16 Ind Gbadebo 12 Heritage 1
Herefordshire UA, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Grn 48 Con 20 LDm 16 RefUK 13 Lab 3
Inverclyde UA, Inverclyde West: Lab 39 SNP 34; RefUK 13 Con 9 Alba 5 - Lab win on Transfers
Moray UA, Elgin City South : SNP 32 Lab 30 Con 26 LDm 12 - Lab win on Transfers
Wyre DC, Marsh Mill: Con 41 RefUK 31 Lab 20 Grn 8

[batman]

Nov 7, 2024 6:59:18 GMT sanders said:

Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan - C 31 SNP 29 LD 17 IND 13 RFM 8 SFP 2 (Con win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Fraseburgh & District - RFM 35 SNP 32 CON 25 LD 7 SFP 1 (Reform win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Mearns - CON 36 SNP 29 RFM 14 LD 14 GRN 7 (Con win on transfers)

Blackpool, Bispham - CON 44, LAB 36, RFM 15, GRN 2, LD 2, IND 1 (

Bracknell, Great Hollands - LAB 34, CON 32, RFM 17, IND 16, HERITAGE 1

Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley - GRN 43, CON 32, RFM 16, LAB 6, LD 3

Inverclyde, Inverclyde West - LAB 47, SNP 31, CON 14, RFM 6, ALBA 2 (Lab win on transfers)

Moray, Elgin City South - CON 38 SNP 35, LAB 18, LD 9 (Con win on transfers)

Wyre, Marsh Mill - CON 32, RFM 30, RFM 21, GRN 17

2 Reform candidates in Wyre. Which one is meant to be Labour?

[sanders]

Nov 7, 2024 7:13:43 GMT batman said:

Nov 7, 2024 6:59:18 GMT sanders said:

Aberdeenshire, Central Buchan - C 31 SNP 29 LD 17 IND 13 RFM 8 SFP 2 (Con win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Fraseburgh & District - RFM 35 SNP 32 CON 25 LD 7 SFP 1 (Reform win on transfers)

Aberdeenshire, Mearns - CON 36 SNP 29 RFM 14 LD 14 GRN 7 (Con win on transfers)

Blackpool, Bispham - CON 44, LAB 36, RFM 15, GRN 2, LD 2, IND 1 

Bracknell, Great Hollands - LAB 34, CON 32, RFM 17, IND 16, HERITAGE 1

Herefordshire, Bishops Frome & Cradley - GRN 43, CON 32, RFM 16, LAB 6, LD 3

Inverclyde, Inverclyde West - LAB 47, SNP 31, CON 14, RFM 6, ALBA 2 (Lab win on transfers)

Moray, Elgin City South - CON 38 SNP 35, LAB 18, LD 9 (Con win on transfers)

Wyre, Marsh Mill - CON 32, RFM 30, RFM 21, GRN 17

2 Reform candidates in Wyre. Which one is meant to be Labour?

Fixed! 

[robbienicoll]

9 entries to open November, with corradino rejoining, all on time but with kevinf picking up 1 fault for going under in Blackpool.

Central Buchan, Aberdeenshire: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 2% (iainbhx and sanders) to 16.7% (Tony Otim).

Fraserburgh and District, Aberdeenshire: 8 Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, sanders has Reform UK ahead on first preferences and SNP hold after transfers. Conservative first preference majorities range from 1% (Robert Waller) to 30% (batman), and sanders has 3% Reform UK first preference majority.

Mearns, Aberdeenshire: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, first preference majorities range from 1% (andrewp and batman) to 11% (kevinf).

Bispham, Blackpool: 6 Conservative hold, with andrewp and iainbhx Reform UK gain and corradino Labour gain.

Great Hollands, Bracknell Forest: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (sanders) to 24% (batman).

Bishops Frome and Cradley, Herefordshire: 100% Green hold, with majorities ranging from 11% (sanders) to 39% (Right Leaning).

Inverclyde West, Inverclyde: 8 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with kevinf SNP ahead on first preferences and Labour hold after transfers. Labour first preferences range from 3% (corradino) to 16% (sanders), with kevinf having SNP 1% majority.

Elgin City South, Moray: 4 with Labour ahead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, kevinf and sanders Conservative ahead on first prefs and gain after transfers, corradino and iainbhx SNP ahead on first prefs and Labour gain after transfers, and andrewp SNP ahead on first prefs and hold after transfers.

Marsh Mill, Wyre: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (sanders) to 29% (batman).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16M9_If3Rwfi1B11U5MxxM1bfBRmY6nGkG6cHbs7mdFo/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

I would like to congratulate corradino for winning what was another testing week, and taking the lead for the month.

[corradino]

It's taken some 21 months for me to achieve my first weekly win so I don't think the real experts on this site need fear me as a serious challenger.

[The Bishop]

Pretty remarkable that there are going to be no more Tory defences for the rest of this month.

[batman]

DERBYSHIRE DALES, Calver & Longstone : C 49 Green 44 Lab 7

E.AYRSHIRE, Doon Valley : Lab 35 SNP 29 C 17 Ind Ireland 10 Green 4 LD 3 McNamara 2. Lab win

E.AYRSHIRE, Kilmarnock W. & Crosshouse : Lab 41 SNP 33 C 18 McNamara 5 LD 3. Lab win

EDINBURGH, Colinton/Fairmilehead : Lab 24 C 21 SNP 18 LD 10 Green 7 BP Bob 4 Ind Henry 4 SFP 3 Ind Brown 3 RefUK 3 Wilkinson 2 Libertarian 1. Lab win

GREENWICH, Shooters Hill : Lab 48 Green 25 C 17 RefUK 6 LD 4

MILTON KEYNES, Bradwell : LD 47 Lab 20 C 18 RefUK 9 Green 6

MILTON KEYNES, Broughton : LD 51 C 23 Lab 17 Green 7 Heritage 2

REDBRIDGE, Wanstead Park : Lab 40 C 22 Green 19 RefUK 12 LD 4 Ilford Ind 3

TELFORD & WREKIN, Hadley & Leegomery : Lab 52 RefUK 21 C 17 Green 6 LD 4

TELFORD & WREKIN, The Nedge : Lab 40 C 26 RefUK 20 Ind 6 Green 5 LD 3

W.LOTHIAN, Whitburn & Blackburn : Lab 39 SNP 26 C 17 Ind 6 RefUK 5 Green 4 LD 3. Lab win

W.OXFORDSHIRE, Chipping Norton : Lab 47 C 34 Green 12 LD 7

[sanders]

Derbyshire Dales, Calver & Longstone - CON 49% GRN 39% LAB 12%

East Ayrshire, Doon Valley - LAB 36% SNP 26% CON 23% IND IRELAND 9% LD 3% GRN 2% IND MCNAMARA 1% (LAB win on transfers)

East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock West & Crosshouse: LAB 45% SNP 33% CON 8% IND MCNAMARA 8% LD% 6% (LAB win on transfers)

Edinburgh, Colinton/Fairmilehead - LAB 53% SNP 17% GRN 9% CON 9% LD 6% BP BOB 1% IND HENRY 1% IND BROWN 1% RFM 1% WILKINSON 1% LIBERTARIAN 1%

Greenwich, Shooters Hill - LAB 40% GRN 30% RFM 15% CON 10% LD 5%

Milton Keynes, Bradwell - LD 50% CON 20% LAB 20% RFM 7% GRN 3%

Milton Keynes, Broughton - LD 43% CON 40% LAB 12% GRN 3% HERITAGE 2%

Redbridge, Wanstead Park - GRN 35% LAB 34% CON 11% RFM 7% LD 7% ILFORD IND 4%

Telford & Wrekin, Hadley & Leegomery - LAB 45% RFM 25% CON 21% GRN 5% LD 4%

Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge: LAB 40% RFM 25% CON 21% GRN 5% IND 5% LD 4%

West Lothian: Whitburn & Blackburn: LAB 41% SNP 30% RFM 9% CON 8% LD 5% GRN 4% IND 3% (LAB win on transfers)

West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton: CON 40% LAB 39% GRN 11% LD 10%

[kevinf]

Derby Dales
Green 55, Con 39, Lab 6
East Ayrshire - Doon Valley
Lab 28, SNP 21, Ind 19, Con 18, LD 7, Green 5, ND 2 - Lab win
East Ayrshire - Kilmarnock
Lab 35, Con 27, SNP 23, ND 10, LD 5 - Lab win
Edinburgh
Lab 34, Con 20, SNP 15, LD 10, Green 5.5, Reform 4.5, ND Wilkinson 3.5, Ind Henry 2.5, Ind Brown 2.3, ND Bonnie Prince Bob 1.5, SFP 0.7, Libertarian 0.5 - Lab win
Greenwich
Lab 42, Green 26, Con 15, Reform 10, LD 7
MK - Bradwell
LD 34, Lab 21, Reform 20, Green 13, Con 12
MK - Brighton
LD 33, Con 31, Lab 27, Green 8, Heritage 1
Redbridge
Lab 27, Reform 24, Green 22, Con 12, Ilford Ind 8, LD 7
Telford - H&L
Lab 46, Reform 32, Con 10, LD 8, Green 4
Telford - The Nedge
Lab 31, Con 19, Green 17, Reform 16, Ind 9, LD 8
West Lothian
Lab 27, SNP 19, Con 17, Reform 15, Ind 8, Green 7, LD 6 - Lab win
West Oxon
Lab 48, Con 30, Green 12, LD 10

[Tony Otim]

Derbyshire Dales: Con 48.1; Grn 46.0; Lab 5.9
East Ayrshire DV: Lab 34.3; Con 23.8; SNP 23.4; Ireland 9.8; McNamara 4.5; Grn 2.6; LD 1.6
EAst Ayrshire KWC: SNP 34.2; Lab 32.6; Con 24.5; McNamara 6.2; LD 2.5 (Lab win)
Edinburgh: Con 28.3; Lab 26.8; LD 17.0; SNP 13.0; Grn 6.2; REf 3.6; SFP 1.4; Brown 1.2; Bob 0.9; Wilkinson 0.8; Henry 0.6; Lbtn 0.2 (Lab win)
Greenwich: Lab 58.3; Con 13.6; Grn 12.8; Ref 8.9; LD 6.4
MK Bradwell: LD 53.5; Lab 22.0; Con 12.8; Ref 6.6; Grn 5.1
MK Broughton: LD 41.8; Con 34.5; Lab 16.4; Grn 5.4; Heritage 1.9
Redbridge: Lab 41.3; Grn 24.4; Con 15.7; Ref 6.9; II 6.1; LD 5.6
Telford & Wrekin H&L: Lab 44.1; Ref 30.4; Con 13.3; LD 7.6; Grn 4.6
Telford & wrekin TN: Lab 41.0; Con 22.1; Ref 17.2; Vaughan-Hodkinson 8.0; LD 7.1; Grn 4.6
West Lothian: Lab 35.9; SNP 30.6; Ref 13.5; Con 11.4; Lynch 4.1; Grn 2.6; LD 1.9
West Oxfordshire: Lab 44.6; Con 28.2; Grn 16.4; LD 10.8