Prediction Competition - November 2024

[andrewp]

Derbyshire Dales. Con 48 Green 46 Lab 6
East Ayrshire. Kilmarnock West. Lab 36,  SNP 30, Con 24, LD 7, McNamara 3. Lab win
East Ayrshire. Doom Valley. Lab 34, SNP 25, Con 18, Green 10, Ind Ireland 6, LD 5, McNamara 2. Lab win
Edinburgh. Con 28, Lab 26.5, SNP 15 LD 15.5 REfUK 6, Wilkinson 3, Green 2, SFP 1, Lib 0.5 Henry 1, Brown 1, Bob 0.5. Lab win
Greenwich. Shooters Hill. Lab 42 Green 21 Con 15 RefUK 14, Ld 8
MK, Bradwell. LD 53 Lab 18 Con 13 RefUK 12 Green 4
MK, Broughton, LD 45 Con 31 Lab 18 Green 4 Her 2
Redbridge, Wanstead Park. Lab 41, Con 20, Green 16, II 8, LD 9 RefUK 6
Telford and Wrekin, Hadley and Leegomery. Lab 50 RefUK 21 Con 17 Green 7 LD 5
Telford and Wrekin, The Nedge, Lab 35 REfUK 22 Con 21 Ind 10, LD 7 Green 5
West Lothian, Whitburn and Blackburn. Lab 31 SNP 25 RefUK 15 Con 13, Ind 12, Green 2, LD 2. Lab win
West Oxfordshire, CN. Lab 47 Con 26 Green 18 LD 9

[Robert Waller]

Derbyshire Dales: Con 55; Grn 40; Lab 5

East Ayrshire DV: Lab 41; Con 18; SNP 28; Ireland 7; McNamara 2; Grn 2; LD 2 (Lab win)

East Ayrshire KWC: SNP 33; Lab 39; Con 18; McNamara 5; LD 5 (Lab win)

Edinburgh: Con 27; Lab 28; LD 19; SNP 13; Grn 5.5; REf 3; SFP 1.5; Brown 0.9; Bob 0.8; Wilkinson 0.7; Henry 0.5; Lbtn 0.1 (Lab win)

Greenwich: Lab 55; Con 14; Grn 16; Ref 8; LD 7

MK Bradwell: LD 47; Lab 24; Con 13; Ref 12; Grn 4

MK Broughton: LD 44; Con 33; Lab 16; Grn 5.5; Heritage 1.5

Redbridge: Lab 44; Grn 25; Con 13; Ref 8; II 5; LD 5

Telford & Wrekin H&L: Lab 44; Ref 34; Con 14; LD 5; Grn 3

Telford & Wrekin TN: Lab 38; Con 23; Ref 23; Vaughan-Hodkinson 8; LD 5; Grn 3

West Lothian: Lab 40; SNP 31; Ref 10; Con 11; Lynch 4; Grn 2.5; LD 1.5 (Lab win)

West Oxfordshire: Lab 51; Con 24; Grn 15; LD 10

[rightleaning]

Derbyshire Dales. Calver & Longstone: Con 47, Green 46, Lab 7
East Ayrshire. Kilmarnock West. Lab 35, SNP 30, Con 28, LD 5, McNamara 2. Lab win
East Ayrshire. Doom Valley. SNP 30, Lab 28, Con 21, Green 12, Ind Ireland 4, LD 4, McNamara 1. Lab win
Edinburgh. Colinton/Fairmilehead. Con 27, Lab 24, SNP 16, LD 16, REfUK 8, Green 3, Wilkinson 1, SFP 1, Lib 1, Henry 1, Brown 1, Bob 1. Lab win
Greenwich. Shooters Hill. Lab 38, Green 25, Con 18, RefUK 11, LD 8
Milton Keynes, Bradwell. LD 47, Lab 20, Con 15, RefUK 14, Green 4
Milton Keynes, Broughton, LD 45, Con 33, Lab 15, Green 5, Her 2
Redbridge, Wanstead Park. Lab 44, Con 22, Green 14, II 8, LD 6, RefUK 6
Telford and Wrekin, Hadley and Leegomery. Lab 48, RefUK 23, Con 19, Green 5, LD 5
Telford and Wrekin, The Nedge, Lab 32, REfUK 30, Con 19, Ind 8, LD 7, Green 4
West Lothian, Whitburn and Blackburn. SNP 32, Lab 31, RefUK 13, Con 13, Ind 7, Green 2, LD 2. Lab win
West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton Lab 42, Con 31, Gn 15, LD 12

[iainbhx]

Derbyshire Dales DC, Calver & Longstone: Con 46 Grn 44 Lab 10

East Ayrshire SUA, Kilmarnock West: SNP 36 Lab 32 Con 22 LDm 6 ND McNamara 4 Lab win on transfers

East Ayrshire SUA, Doon Valley: Lab 30 SNP 27 Con 23 IND Ireland 12 Grn 4 LDm 3 ND McNamara 1. Lab win on transfers

City of Edinburgh SUA, Colinton/Fairmilehead: Lab 27 Con 23 LDm 16 SNP 13 Grn 7.5 Rfm 6 ND Bob 2.5 IND Wilkinson 2 IND Henry 1.5 SFP 1, IND Brown 0.3, ScotLib 0.2 Lab win on transfers

Greenwich LBC, Shooters Hill: Lab 45 Grn 25 Con 14 Rfm 10 LDm 6

Milton Keynes UA, Bradwell: LDm 43 Con 22 Lab 15 Rfm 12 Grn 8

Milton Keynes UA, Broughton: Con 41 LDm 37 Lab 13 Grn 7, Her 2

Redbridge LBC, Wanstead Park: Lab 40 Grn 26 Con 16 LDm 8 Rfm 7 Local Ind 3

Telford and Wrekin UA, Hadley and Leegomery: Lab 41 Rfm 30 Con 17 Grn 9 LDm 3

Telford and Wrekin UA, The Nedge: Lab 38 Con 22 Rfm 18 Grn 10 LDm 7 IND Vaughan-Hodkinson 5

West Lothian SUA, Whitburn and Blackburn: SNP 33 Lab 28 RefUK 15 Con 13 IND Lynch 5 Grn 4, LDm 2. Lab win on transfers

West Oxfordshire DC, Chipping Norton Lab 41 Con 30 LDm 22 Grn 7

[robbienicoll]

8 entries for this week, with corradino dropping out. All on time, but with sanders picking up 2 faults for going under in Redbridge and kevinf 1 for going under in West Lothian.

Calver and Longstone, Derbyshire Dales: 7 Conservative gain from Green, with majorities ranging from 1% (Right Leaning) to 15% (Robert Waller). Kevinf Green hold with 16% majority.

Doon Valley, East Ayrshire: 7 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 3% (iainbhx) to 13% (Robert Waller). Right Leaning has SNP ahead on first prefs with 2% majority and Labour hold after transfers.

Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse, East Ayrshire: 6 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with iainbhx and Tony Otim SNP ahead on first prefs and Labour hold after transfers.

Colinton/Fairmilehead, Edinburgh: 5 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with andrewp, Right Leaning and Tony Otim Conservative ahead on first prefs and Labour hold after transfers.

Shooters Hill, Greenwich: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (sanders) to 44.7% (Tony Otim).

Bradwell, Milton Keynes: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (kevinf) to 35% (andrewp).

Broughton, Milton Keynes: 7 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (kevinf) to 28% (batman). Iainbhx Conservative gain with 4% majority.

Wanstead Park, Redbridge: 7 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 3% (kevinf) to 22% (Right Leaning). Sanders Green gain with 1% majority.

Hadley and Leegomery, Telford and Wrekin: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (Robert Waller) to 31% (batman).

The Nedge, Telford and Wrekin: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Right Leaning) to 18.9% (Tony Otim).

Whitburn and Blackburn, West Lothian: 6 Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with iainbhx and Right Leaning SNP ahead on first prefs and Labour hold after transfers.

Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire: 7 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 11% (iainbhx and Right Leaning) to 27% (Robert Waller). Sanders Conservative gain with 1% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PJeRHV2Nm_D1h5fi6-UULwrlucl5q1xwdv3F0KOkw44/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congrats to andrewp and Tony Otim for a very good week, and to andrewp for the monthly lead.

[kevinf]

Dacorum - Bennett’s End
Lab 37, Ref 23, Con 20, Green 11, LD 9
Dacorum - Hemel H
LD 41, Lab 19, Red 17, Con 17, Green 6
Dartford
SGRA 30, Ref 26, Con 24, Lab 15, Green 5
Glasgow Drumchapel
Lab 32, SNP 19, Con 18, Ref 13, Green 7,  Ind 6, LD 5
Glasgow Maryhill
Lab 31, SNP 25, Green 20, Con 8, Ref 7.5, LD 4, Alba 4.5
Glasgow NE
Lab 38, SNP 27, Ref 12, Con 9, Green 8, LD 5.3, Tusc 0.7
Gosport
Con 31, Lab 26, Ref 22, Ind 12, LD 8, Heritage 1
Highland
LD 42, SNP 27, Green 15, Con 11, Lab 4, ScotLib 1
Horsham
LD 50, Con 25, Green 15, Lab 10
Kent
SGRA 25, Con 19, Lab 17, Green 15, Ref 15, LD 9
Rutland
LD 54, Ref 21, Con 20, Lab 5
Sefton
Lab 44, Ref 25, Green 15, Con 8, Workers 7, Tusc 1
Somerset Blackmore
LD 50, Con 30, Green 15, Lab 5
Somerset Rowbarton
LD 58, Con 20, Green 12, Lab 10
Swale
Ref 28, Swale 26, Con 18, Lab 17, LD 11

[batman]

DACORUM, Bennett's End : C 35 Lab 27 RefUK 21 Green 11 LD 6

DACORUM, Hemel Hempstead Town : LD 27 C 23 Lab 22 RefUK 21 Green 7

DARTFORD, Greenhithe & Knockhall : SGRA 32 C 32 RefUK 17 Lab 14 Green 5. SGRA win

GLASGOW, Drumchapel Anniesland : Lab 26 SNP 24 C 15 Ind 14 Green 11 RefUK 6 LD 4. Lab win

GLASGOW, Maryhill : Lab 37 SNP 30 C 11 Green 9 RefUK 5 LD 5 Alba 3. Lab win

GLASGOW, N.E. : Lab 4O SNP 32 C 11 Green 6 LD 5 RefUK 4 TUSC 2. Lab win

GOSPORT, Harbourside & Town : C 35 Lab 26 RefUK 22 LD 8 Ind 7 Heritage 2

HIGHLAND, Fort William & Ardnamuchan : LD 29 SNP 27 C 17 Lab 15 Green 10 Libertarian 2. LD win

HORSHAM, Denne : LD 43 C 30 Green 15 Lab 12

KENT, Swanscombe & Greenhithe : SGRA 30 C 28 Lab 20 RefUK 17 Green 5

RUTLAND, Oakham NE : LD 45 C 35 Lab 12 RefUK 8

SEFTON, Litherland : Lab 64 RefUK 13 Green 10 C 6 TUSC 4 WPB 3

SOMERSET, Blackmoor Vale : C 41 LD 40 Green 12 Lab 7

SOMERSET, Rowbarton & Staplegrove : LD 45 C 34 Green 11 Lab 10

SWALE, Murston : RefUK 29 C 24 Swale Ind 23 Lab 20 LD 4

[Tony Otim]

Dacorum BE: Con 30.9; Lab 30.5; Ref 18.2; LD 11.1; Grn 9.3
Dacorum HHT: LD 30.9; Con 26.3; Ref 19.1; Lab 15.4; Grn 8.3
Dartford: SGRA 30.4; Ref 24.6; Con 23.1; Lab 12.6; Grn 9.3
Glasgow DA: Lab 40.6; SNP 30.7; Con 9.2; Grn 8.4; Kerr 6.5; Ref 3.1; LD 1.5
Glasgow MH: Lab 34.2; SNP 32.8; Grn 17.7; Con 6.5; Ref 4.0; LD 3.0; Alba 1.8
Glasgow NE: Lab 44.2; SNP 33.7; Ref 9.9; Con 5.1; Grn 4.2; LD 1.8; TUSC 1.1
Gosport: Con 32.0; Lab 26.3; Ref 23.9; Fletcher 8.8; LD 7.1; Heritage 1.9
Highland: LD 47.2; SNP 25.1; Grn 13.2; Con 10.4; Lab 3.8; Lbtn 0.3
Horsham: LD 44.0; Con 33.6; Grn 13.8; Lab 8.6
Kent: SGRA 29.7; Con 25.6; Lab 21.3; Ref 15.6; Grn 6.2; LD 1.6
Rutland: LD 54.4; Ref 24.3; Con 14.8; Lab 6.5
Sefton: Lab 62.6; Ref 14.0; Grn 13.2; WP 4.7; Con 3.9; TUSC 1.6
Somerset BV: LD 47.1; Con 42.0; Grn 6.5; Lab 4.4
Somerset RS: LD 55.9; Con 29.7; Grn 9.6; Lab 4.8
Swale: SI 31.6; Ref 26.5; Lab 22.1; Con 11.9; LD 8.0

[andrewp]

Dacorum, Bennett’s End, Lab 30 Con 26 RefUK 21 Green 12 LD 11
Dacorum, HHT. LD 42 Con 23 Lab 15 RefUk 15 Green 5
Dartford. Greenhithe & Knockhall. Res 32 ReFUK 26 Con 23 Lab 15 Green 4
Glasgow, DA Lab 43 SNP 30 Con 7 Green 7 RefUk 6 Kerr 5 LD 2. Lab win
Glasgow, Maryhill. Lab 36 SNP 35 Green 12 ReFUK 7 Con 6 Alba 2 Ld 2. Lab win
Glasgow. NE, Lab 45 SNP 33 Con 7 RefUk 6 Green 4 LD 4 TUSc 1. Lab win
Gosport, H & T. Con 33 Lab 28 RefUk 25 Ind 7 LD 6 HP 1
Highland, LD 43 SNP 27 Con 14 Green 8 Lab 7 Lib 1. LD win
Horsham, Denne. LD 49 Con 33 Green 11 Lab 7
Kent, Swansconbe and Greenhithe, RefUk 27 Con 23 Lab 20 Res 23 Green 4 LD 3
Rutland, Oakham NE. LD 59 Con 23 RefUk 12 Lab 6
Sefton, Litherland, Lab 67 WP 9 Green 9 RefUk 8 TUSC 4 Con 3
Somerset. BV. Con 46 LD 43 Green 7 Lab 4
Somerset. r & S. Ld 55 Con 29 Lab 8 Green 8
Swale. RefUk 34 SI 32 Lab 16 Con 12 LD 6

[Robert Waller]

Dacorum, Bennett’s End, Lab 32 Con 34 RefUK 20 Green 6 LD 8
Dacorum, HHT. LD 31 Con 24 Lab 24 RefUk 15 Green 6
Dartford. Greenhithe & Knockhall. Res 30 ReFUK 22 Con 25 Lab 20 Green 3
Glasgow, DA Lab 46 SNP 30 Con 6 Green 7 RefUk 4 Kerr 5 LD 2. Lab win
Glasgow, Maryhill. Lab 41 SNP 32 Green 15 RefUK 4 Con 4 Alba 2 LD 2. Lab win
Glasgow. NE, Lab 47 SNP 35 Con 5 RefUk 6 Green 3 LD 2 TUSc 2. Lab win
Gosport, H & T. Con 35 Lab 28 RefUk 25.5 Ind 6 LD 5 HP 0.5
Highland, LD 36 SNP 34 Con 10 Green 10 Lab 9.7 Lib 0.3 LD win
Horsham, Denne. LD 47 Con 37 Green 10 Lab 6
Kent, Swansconbe and Greenhithe, RefUk 22 Con 26 Lab 22 Res 33 Green 4 LD 3
Rutland, Oakham NE. LD 55 Con 25 RefUk 15 Lab 5
Sefton, Litherland, Lab 55 WP 15 Green 8 RefUk 15 TUSC 3 Con 4
Somerset. BV. Con 44 LD 46 Green 6 Lab 4
Somerset. r & S. Ld 58 Con 28 Lab 6 Green 8
Swale. RefUk 34 SI 32 Lab 18 Con 12 LD 4

[rightleaning]

Dacorum, Bennett’s End, Con 35, Lab 31, RefUK 18, Green 8, LD 8
Dacorum, Hemel Hempstead Town. LD 34, Con 28, Lab 21, RefUk 12, Green 5,
Dartford. Greenhithe & Knockhall. Res 32, Con 27, ReFUK 21, Lab 18, Green 2
Glasgow, Drumchapel Anniesland Lab 43, SNP 32, Con 8, Green 7, RefUk 5, Kerr 3, LD 2. Lab win
Glasgow, Maryhill. Lab 41 SNP 34, Green 12, Con 6, RefUK 4, LD 2, Alba 1 . Lab win
Glasgow. NE, Lab 42, SNP 39, Con 6, RefUk 6, Green 3, LD 3, TUSC 1. Lab win
Gosport, Harbourside & Town. Con 31, Lab 30, RefUk 25, LD 7, Ind 6, HP 1
Highland, LD 39, SNP 32, Con 12, Green 9, Lab 7, Lib 1 LD win
Horsham, Denne. LD 52, Con 36, Green 8, Lab 4
Kent, Swansconbe and Greenhithe, Res 36, RefUk 20, Con 20, Lab 18, Green 4, LD 2
Rutland, Oakham NE. LD 62, RefUk 18, Con 16, Lab 4
Sefton, Litherland, Lab 61, RefUk 15, WP 10, Green 8, Con 4, TUSC 2
Somerset: Blackmoor Vale. LD 51, Con 38, Green 8, Lab 3
Somerset: Rowbarton & Staplegrove - LD 61, Con 25, Green 10, Lab 4
Swale: Murston - RefUk 36, SI 31, Lab 17, Con 13, LD 3

[iainbhx]

Dacorum DC, Bennett's End: Con 30 Lab 26 REF-UK 23 LDm 12 Grn 9
Dacorum DC, Hemel Hempstead Town: LDm 41 Con 25 REF-UK 15 Lab 13 Grn 6
Dartford DC, Greenhith & Knockall: Res 31 REF-UK 27 Con 25 Lab 12 Grn 5
Glasgow SUA, Drumchapel/Anniesland : Lab 36 SNP 31 Grn 11 REF-UK 8 Ind Kerr 6 Con 5 LDm 3 Lab win on transfers
Glasgow SUA, Maryhill : SNP 35 Lab 32 Grn 17 REF-UK 6 Con 4.5 Alba 3 LDm 2.5 SNP win on transfers
Glasgow SUA, North East: Lab 41 SNP 35 REF-UK 9 Grn 7 TUSC 3.5 Con 3 LDm 1.5 Lab win on transfers
Gosport DC, Harbourside & Town: Con 35 Lab 27 REF-UK 22 LDm 12 Ind 3.5 Heritage 0,5
Highland SUA, Fort William & Ardnamuchan: LDm 43 SNP 26 Con 16 Grn 9.5 Lab 5 ScotLib 0.5 - LDm win on transfers
Horsham Dc, Denne: LDm 48 Con 34 Grn 13 Lab 5
Kent CC, Swanscombe & Greenhithe: Con 28 Res 25 REF-UK 21 Lab 16 Grn 7 LDm 3
Rutland UA, Oakham NE: LDm 46 Con 26 REF-UK 16 Lab 12
Sefton MBC, Litherland: Lab 62 REF-UK 15 WPB 10 Grn 6 TUSC 4 Con 3
Somerset UA, Blackmoor Vale: Con 44 LDm 43 Grn 9 Lab 4
Somerset UA, Rowbarton & Staplegrove : LDm 52 Con 30 Grn 10 Lab 8
Swale DC, Murston: REF-UK 30 Swale Ind 28 Lab 20 Con 14 LDm 8