|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Nov 15, 2024 16:03:35 GMT
One of 14 voters to make that choice I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... One should always strive to achieve that if there are enough candidates to make it possible 😏 |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 15, 2024 16:13:41 GMT
I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... One should always strive to achieve that if there are enough candidates to make it possible 😏 There were 764 ballot papers with unique preference sequences in Colinton/Fairmilehead, of which 18 only had two preferences. One of those was C->SNP->Stop. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Nov 15, 2024 17:37:39 GMT
Edinburgh South was a target pre coalition. I think it was won by the LDs at Holyrood one year
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,024
Member is Online
|
Post by nyx on Nov 15, 2024 17:38:36 GMT
Simulating of the Colinton/Fairmilehead by-election as an ordinary election gives LD/Lab/C, which is a LD gain from SNP compared with 2022.  The other preference profiles don't appear to be up yet, but based on first preferences the two East Ayrshire polls are very clear: Doon Valley would be Lab/SNP/C (C gain from Ind) and Kilmarnock West/Crosshouse would be 2Lab/SNP/C (Lab gain from SNP). In Whitburn/Blackburn there are quotas for Lab and SNP and the other two seats are between their second candidates, RUK and Tam Lynch. RUK look well placed for a seat but I wouldn't like to call the other without seeing the preference profile. Astonishing to think that this calculation isn't massively far off being 2 LD/1 Lab. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 17:52:31 GMT
Simulating of the Colinton/Fairmilehead by-election as an ordinary election gives LD/Lab/C, which is a LD gain from SNP compared with 2022. The other preference profiles don't appear to be up yet, but based on first preferences the two East Ayrshire polls are very clear: Doon Valley would be Lab/SNP/C (C gain from Ind) and Kilmarnock West/Crosshouse would be 2Lab/SNP/C (Lab gain from SNP). In Whitburn/Blackburn there are quotas for Lab and SNP and the other two seats are between their second candidates, RUK and Tam Lynch. RUK look well placed for a seat but I wouldn't like to call the other without seeing the preference profile. Astonishing to think that this calculation isn't massively far off being 2 LD/1 Lab. Although it should be noticed that in practice, surpluses never transfer 100% to running mates. |
|
skyep
Non-Aligned
Posts: 61
|
Post by skyep on Nov 15, 2024 18:54:32 GMT
Solid result for the Lib Dems. Will they now target Edinburgh Southern? Holyrood 2026 could be very interesting. isn't the ward in pentlands not southern tho...? looking at the pentlands 2021 result i can now imagine a bar chart put out with snp on +3, lib dems second on +1 with tories on 0 and labour -5! |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755 
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 15, 2024 18:57:56 GMT
Edinburgh South was a target pre coalition. I think it was won by the LDs at Holyrood one year Edinburgh South was a pre-coalition target. We aren't bloody Frogs. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 15, 2024 19:15:48 GMT
Solid result for the Lib Dems. Will they now target Edinburgh Southern? Holyrood 2026 could be very interesting. isn't the ward in pentlands not southern tho...? looking at the pentlands 2021 result i can now imagine a bar chart put out with snp on +3, lib dems second on +1 with tories on 0 and labour -5! That makes sense. Pentlands went to the Tories in 2003 and 2007. The ward has shifted against the Tories. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 21:23:33 GMT
Solid result for the Lib Dems. Will they now target Edinburgh Southern? Holyrood 2026 could be very interesting. isn't the ward in pentlands not southern tho...? looking at the pentlands 2021 result i can now imagine a bar chart put out with snp on +3, lib dems second on +1 with tories on 0 and labour -5! Yes - it's currently in Pentlands, the current Southern doesn't touch the Southern edge of the city at all. However the proposed Southern would take in about a third of this ward. |
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Nov 15, 2024 21:24:17 GMT
shooters Hill used to be one of the few safe tory Woolwich East wards
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 15, 2024 22:42:58 GMT
Simulating of the Colinton/Fairmilehead by-election as an ordinary election gives LD/Lab/C, which is a LD gain from SNP compared with 2022. The other preference profiles don't appear to be up yet, but based on first preferences the two East Ayrshire polls are very clear: Doon Valley would be Lab/SNP/C (C gain from Ind) and Kilmarnock West/Crosshouse would be 2Lab/SNP/C (Lab gain from SNP). In Whitburn/Blackburn there are quotas for Lab and SNP and the other two seats are between their second candidates, RUK and Tam Lynch. RUK look well placed for a seat but I wouldn't like to call the other without seeing the preference profile. I've now seen the Whitburn/Blackburn preference profile and I'm really none the wiser.  The first three seats are clearly Lab/SNP/RUK. In this simulation the final seat goes to Tam Lynch, but Labour have a decent chance of two and the SNP have an outside chance of two depending on how well/badly those parties can balance two candidates. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 16, 2024 11:40:28 GMT
More losing candidate should do this. it's good to have some reflection.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 16, 2024 14:12:56 GMT
shooters Hill used to be one of the few safe tory Woolwich East wards The old (pre-1978) Shooter's Hill ward which was safely Conservative was entirely situated south of Shooters Hill and bears hardly any resemblance to the current ward of that name (which corresponds I think more to the St Margaret's ward of that era). Also it was in Woolwich West and corresponds more to the Eltham Park & Progress ward. St Margaret's only voted Conservative in 1968. The Shrewsbury ward which included much of the current Shooters Hill ward was pretty safely Conservative from its creation in 1978 until it was lost to Labour in 1994. The rest of the current ward was then in the safe Labour Herbert ward. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
|
Post by Sibboleth on Nov 16, 2024 14:32:01 GMT
This is a surprisingly frequent issue in London and is really annoying: you can't safely assume that a ward with a particular name must have a lot in common with previous wards with the same name or a similar one.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,359
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Nov 16, 2024 14:39:14 GMT
That's very true. For example, in my borough, the present West Twickenham ward is a very different area from the pre-2002 smaller ward of that name which was dominated by fairly small terraced houses - which is why Labour lost it comfortably on its new boundaries in 2002 having polled only a fraction under 50% in 1998. And East Sheen today has only a very small resemblance to the pre-2002 East Sheen ward, which included quite large swathes of south-eastern Richmond but didn't include at least equally large swathes of East Sheen, which were instead in the Palewell ward which was abolished in 2002.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 16, 2024 15:32:00 GMT
Yes it's quite common. The pre-1978 (very safe Labour) Grove Park ward bears no relationship to the subsequent iterations of the ward of that name which lie to the East of the railway and the station of that name, rather it covered the Downham estate (now obviously in the Downham ward). The area covered by the current Grove Park ward was, before 1971 called South Lee.
Kingsbury ward in Brent covers none of the territory covered by the previous ward of that name (1978-2002) and the current Limehouse ward was all contained in the 1978-2002 Shadwell ward - the ward which was then called Limehouse is now mostly in Mile End!
Lets not even get started on Hounslow Heath and Hounslow West..
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 16, 2024 15:32:51 GMT
shooters Hill used to be one of the few safe tory Woolwich East wards The old (pre-1978) Shooter's Hill ward which was safely Conservative was entirely situated south of Shooters Hill and bears hardly any resemblance to the current ward of that name (which corresponds I think more to the St Margaret's ward of that era). Also it was in Woolwich West and corresponds more to the Eltham Park & Progress ward. St Margaret's only voted Conservative in 1968. The Shrewsbury ward which included much of the current Shooters Hill ward was pretty safely Conservative from its creation in 1978 until it was lost to Labour in 1994. The rest of the current ward was then in the safe Labour Herbert ward. Which shooter is Shooter's Hill named for? |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 16, 2024 16:12:20 GMT
Beckton and Plashet wards in Newham too. Both current wards are in East Ham - pre-2002 wards were in West Ham. I don't think the two Beckton wards would even border one another.
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 16, 2024 16:29:55 GMT
Beckton and Plashet wards in Newham too. Both current wards are in East Ham - pre-2002 wards were in West Ham. I don't think the two Beckton wards would even border one another. Isn't the current Barnhill ward in Brent pretty different to the old one? |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 16, 2024 17:06:55 GMT
Beckton and Plashet wards in Newham too. Both current wards are in East Ham - pre-2002 wards were in West Ham. I don't think the two Beckton wards would even border one another. Isn't the current Barnhill ward in Brent pretty different to the old one? Not in the same way no. It includes almost all of the old (ie pre-2002) Barnhill ward but in addition it includes the Chalk Hill estate which massively shifts the dynamics (2002-2022 Barnhill ward also included a council estate in Kingsbury, across the Jubilee Line. But its always included the core area of Barnhill itself |
|
