|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 15, 2024 14:00:07 GMT
Lib Dems 2683, Conservative 1454, Labour 1441 Flippin eck Does anyone know the background to the astonishing turnaround, did the Lib Dems do well in this ward when Labour was last in government? |
|
|
|
Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 15, 2024 14:02:54 GMT
Chipping Norton’s popular incumbent stepping down and Labour failing to find a local candidate may have been a factor.
Lib Dem local strength and a reasonably popular district council administration probably helped. Three weeks ago the Tories would have probably expected to walk a seat like this.
|
|
|
|
Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 15, 2024 14:03:35 GMT
It is now in the Banbury seat (which went Labour) not Witney as was the case previously. I ignore boundary changes I don't like. None of West Oxfordshire should be in Banbury. In my day, when we campaigned there in 2016, it was in Witney. It should still be there. The Oxfordshire seats look hideous nowadays. Talk to anyone in Chippy about Witney and you’d get a different view. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Nov 15, 2024 14:05:16 GMT
Does anyone know the background to the astonishing turnaround, did the Lib Dems do well in this ward when Labour was last in government? It was targeted in 2022 and we weren’t a million miles away from a seat then. But in answer to your second question, no - it was one of only two (I think?) Edinburgh wards which never elected a Lib Dem councillor. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 14:09:48 GMT
Does anyone know the background to the astonishing turnaround, did the Lib Dems do well in this ward when Labour was last in government? It was targeted in 2022 and we weren’t a million miles away from a seat then. But in answer to your second question, no - it was one of only two (I think?) Edinburgh wards which never elected a Lib Dem councillor. Demographic shifts certainly work against the Tories here, as has Brexit, etc... combined with working it very hard. I think both Labour and Tories were very late to waking up to the danger. I didn't think the Lib Dems would quite do it this time, but they've got a very strong result. Note that it was Labour they beat in the final round. This surely kills off any chance of the Tories getting their second seat in the ward back and they will probably only run 1 in 2027. Also note the Labour strength in the ward was fairly new - they're really only back to where they were in 2017. The decline in the Tory vote is the big one over time. |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Nov 15, 2024 14:42:12 GMT
The Chipping Norton result looks better every time I look at it - you have to go back to 2006 for the last time we stood and were not last, however many candidates stood. Hardly anyone saw your gains either here or in Edinburgh coming, credit where it is due. Though didn't the previous Labour incumbent in Chipping Norton lose interest after not getting the Banbury candidacy at the last GE? That sort of thing can affect a result. Not quite - we were aware that a lot of effort was being made in Edinburgh, so that perhaps not such a big surprise (although the scale was). But Chipping Norton very much was - is there an element of "Oxfordshire effect", even if it is within a Labour seat? And what might that suggest for the County next year? |
|
iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
|
Post by iang on Nov 15, 2024 14:48:56 GMT
One thing that catches my eye, and may interest Tony Otim, is that the Green vote seems to have split pretty evenly between the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 14:58:44 GMT
One thing that catches my eye, and may interest Tony Otim, is that the Green vote seems to have split pretty evenly between the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems My impression would be that the Green vote in Edinburgh has always been a bit less SNP leaning than elsewhere in Scotland. Transfers between the 2 parties have also reduced somewhat nationally since the collapse of the Bute House agreement. My impression over recent months, and I haven't crunched the numbers to check, is that transfers for all parties have reduced a bit, with more votes being non- transferable. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 15:01:03 GMT
I think one thing to note is that Reform to Con transfers are only around 40% of the Reform vote. It's certainly been similar in some other Scottish by-elections recently.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 15, 2024 15:13:30 GMT
Edinburgh: LD 2683 Con 1454 Lab 1441 SNP 800 Grn 393 Ref 268 Wilkinson 173 Henry 57 SFP 51 Brown 50 Bob 22 Libertarian 9 Labour overtook the Conservatives on SNP transfers, so the final round was LD 3751 Lab 2055. |
|
|
|
Post by noorderling on Nov 15, 2024 15:17:07 GMT
The results show the Lib Dems also had the highest number of 2nd and 4th preferences, and the second highest 3rd preference.
|
|
|
|
Post by kevinf on Nov 15, 2024 15:18:40 GMT
GWBWI LDm +192 Lab +142 Con +9 Grn -19 SNP -59 Nip and tuck between LDm and Lab until right at the end. LibDems helped by not having much negative anywhere, wheras Labour had several negative scores pulling them down. Pretty good week for both in the end. James, how can Labour be up when they lost two seats and had some big swings against? I’m sure you’ve explained this in the past… |
|
|
|
Post by noorderling on Nov 15, 2024 15:19:35 GMT
Now Cllr Neil Ross knocking for the Lib Dems - didn't seem too happy when I told him that they'd got my 6th preference... One of 14 voters to make that choice |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 15:24:52 GMT
Now Cllr Neil Ross knocking for the Lib Dems - didn't seem too happy when I told him that they'd got my 6th preference... One of 14 voters to make that choice I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 15, 2024 15:31:51 GMT
GWBWI LDm +192 Lab +142 Con +9 Grn -19 SNP -59 Nip and tuck between LDm and Lab until right at the end. LibDems helped by not having much negative anywhere, wheras Labour had several negative scores pulling them down. Pretty good week for both in the end. James, how can Labour be up when they lost two seats and had some big swings against? I’m sure you’ve explained this in the past… See my signature |
|
|
|
Post by noorderling on Nov 15, 2024 15:42:49 GMT
One of 14 voters to make that choice I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... As we say in Dutch “If you don’t tickle yourself, no one else will” |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 15, 2024 15:49:38 GMT
One of 14 voters to make that choice I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... Having looked at the preference profile I suspect you're right. Did you have Labour in fifth? |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 15:53:24 GMT
I suspect my vote was completely unique in order.... Having looked at the preference profile I suspect you're right. Did you have Labour in fifth? Yep |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Nov 15, 2024 15:55:15 GMT
Simulating of the Colinton/Fairmilehead by-election as an ordinary election gives LD/Lab/C, which is a LD gain from SNP compared with 2022.  The other preference profiles don't appear to be up yet, but based on first preferences the two East Ayrshire polls are very clear: Doon Valley would be Lab/SNP/C (C gain from Ind) and Kilmarnock West/Crosshouse would be 2Lab/SNP/C (Lab gain from SNP). In Whitburn/Blackburn there are quotas for Lab and SNP and the other two seats are between their second candidates, RUK and Tam Lynch. RUK look well placed for a seat but I wouldn't like to call the other without seeing the preference profile. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 15, 2024 16:03:33 GMT
Solid result for the Lib Dems. Will they now target Edinburgh Southern? Holyrood 2026 could be very interesting.
|
|
