Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 15, 2024 0:33:20 GMT
Labour's held The Nedge by 16 votes, according to Telford Live. Don't have any numbers other than Lab got 636 so the Tories would've got 620. Back in 2015 the third seat in the ward was decided between the top two Tory candidates by drawing lots. The Tory that won lost as an independent in 2019 and wasn't that far off winning as these things go. He was not the same independent who also ran then and is the Reform candidate this time around. It's an odd ward. I imagine Labour locally were relieved that fuel duty didn't go up in the Budget. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 15, 2024 0:41:26 GMT
The Nedge (Telford & Wrekin) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 33.8% (-20.6) 🌳 CON: 33.0% (+7.0) ➡️ RFM: 22.7% (New) 🌍 GRN: 4.5% (New) 🙋 IND: 3.2% (-6.6) 🔶 LDM: 2.8% (-7.0) Labour HOLD. Here Reform cost the CONS a gain clearly. In that ward? God knows. It has an odd track record. Totally New Town development and the two bits of it are not actually well connected. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 15, 2024 0:44:12 GMT
Had a feeling that The Nedge might be close but didn’t quite have the courage to predict it. Sometimes the big Labour vote in the southern half of Randlay just doesn't show up. At all. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 15, 2024 0:48:32 GMT
Here Reform cost the CONS a gain clearly. In that ward? God knows. It has an odd track record. Totally New Town development and the two bits of it are not actually well connected. You would be postulating a LD collapse into the CONS to try to defeat Lab, and a major LAB bleed to Reform, plus the usual churn in all directions? It is just possible. It is an odd seat as drawn. It did have issues with candidates this time under fresh banners. |
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Post by listener on Nov 15, 2024 1:12:39 GMT
Does anyone have the voting numbers from The Nedge. We are told it was a majority of 12, but then the information dissolves into percentages.
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
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Post by cathyc on Nov 15, 2024 1:24:05 GMT
The Nedge (Telford & Wrekin) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 33.8% (-20.6) 🌳 CON: 33.0% (+7.0) ➡️ RFM: 22.7% (New) 🌍 GRN: 4.5% (New) 🙋 IND: 3.2% (-6.6) 🔶 LDM: 2.8% (-7.0) Labour HOLD. Here Reform cost the CONS a gain clearly. That's not at all clear. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 15, 2024 3:31:36 GMT
Regarding the Wanstead Park council by-election. The Green candidate seemed pretty pro-Gaza. Maybe he was a bad fit. It's still quite a white ward. A poor result for the Greens. They came second in the GE. The Ilford wards might be better. Labour polled lower in both seats.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 15, 2024 3:46:25 GMT
Does anyone have the voting numbers from The Nedge. We are told it was a majority of 12, but then the information dissolves into percentages. |
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 15, 2024 6:54:06 GMT
Turnout looks to be about the same in The Nedge as it was in the Jun 24 by-election. Of course, that's not stopping it being different people voting.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 15, 2024 7:48:39 GMT
Turnout looks to be about the same in The Nedge as it was in the Jun 24 by-election. Of course, that's not stopping it being different people voting. I would be very surprised if the turnout churn wasn't even larger than the usual after a change of government. The ups and downs of that are one reason why it has had such a bizarre electoral history over the years. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2024 8:37:12 GMT
My first-ever vote was a by-election (also in Greater Manchester). Known in advanced psephology as 'The Selnec Effect'. Can that result in having a Senior moment? |
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Post by olympian95 on Nov 15, 2024 8:41:08 GMT
Edinburgh are counting from 915am.
My LD contact there is very hopeful...
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 15, 2024 8:43:32 GMT
So 4 Labour holds, 2 in safe London areas and 2 in provincial marginal areas. The Tories performed better when they had no leader.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 15, 2024 8:50:26 GMT
Surprisingly poor result for the Greens. Poor, but perhaps not surprisingly so. I think Redbridge was possibly poorer. Our London results in by-elections are generally disappointing apart from the few that aren't. In the case of Shooters Hill I would say that the starting position was perhaps somewhat exaggerated by the fact there was only 1 Green and 1 LD last time. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 15, 2024 9:03:27 GMT
So 4 Labour holds, 2 in safe London areas and 2 in provincial marginal areas. The Tories performed better when they had no leader. Maybe they did. Although in both Telford seats the swings were c.14% from Labour to the Conservatives, which is not exactly poor for the Conservatives. |
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Post by sanders on Nov 15, 2024 9:16:06 GMT
Surprisingly poor result for the Greens. Poor, but perhaps not surprisingly so. I think Redbridge was possibly poorer. Our London results in by-elections are generally disappointing apart from the few that aren't. In the case of Shooters Hill I would say that the starting position was perhaps somewhat exaggerated by the fact there was only 1 Green and 1 LD last time. It suggests big gains aren't likely. Still 2026 is a ways off. There doesn't seem be much campaigning in Junction and I'd wager that Corbyn endorsing the independent effectively ends any chances of the Greens winning that by-election, similar to what happened in Hillrise. I think Labour will hold Junction with split opposition. There may be a late surge in campaigning, and the ward does border the Green-held Highgate in Camden to its west and Tufnell Park ward in Islington to the south which is promising territory, but I've seen no sign of any activity. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Nov 15, 2024 9:17:43 GMT
Greenwich. Shooters Hill Lab 57.9% (-1.6) Con 13.2% (-0.9) Green 10.3 % (-4.7) RefUK 9.9% (+7.1) LD 8.8% (+0.1) So a swing to Lab from Green, but not a swing to Lab from Con But the actual 'trend reality' is a healthy swing to Reform UK from all but LD. Yes. Continue with those swings at each council election in future, and Reform UK would win the seat ... in rather over 20 years. By which time the Green percentage of the vote would be in negative double figures.  |
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Post by olympian95 on Nov 15, 2024 9:47:49 GMT
LDs confident in Edinburgh
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,093
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Post by cathyc on Nov 15, 2024 10:08:02 GMT
So 4 Labour holds, 2 in safe London areas and 2 in provincial marginal areas. The Tories performed better when they had no leader. Does anyone know what 15% of 121 is?  |
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 15, 2024 10:26:19 GMT
So 4 Labour holds, 2 in safe London areas and 2 in provincial marginal areas. The Tories performed better when they had no leader. Maybe they did. Although in both Telford seats the swings were c.14% from Labour to the Conservatives, which is not exactly poor for the Conservatives. Which is better than many have been lately. |
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