Japanese General Election 2014

[markgoodair]

Incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will dissolve parliament. The election date will be 27th October.

[The Bishop]

So can I be the first to predict an LDP win? Not exactly sticking my neck out there, granted.

[jamesdoyle]

What, has the count taken ten years?

[finsobruce]

Sept 30, 2024 9:20:26 GMT The Bishop said:

So can I be the first to predict an LDP win? Not exactly sticking my neck out there, granted.

[johnloony]

I predict that the result will be

Liberal Democratic Party 48% 291 seats
Democratic Party 23% 73 seats
Innovation Party 8% 41 seats
Komeito Party 1% 35 seats
Communist Party 13% 21 seats
Future Generations 2% 2 seats
Social Democratic Party 1% 2 seats
People’s Life Party 1% 2 seats
Independent 3% 8 seats

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 30, 2024 10:00:00 GMT johnloony said:

I predict that the result will be

Liberal Democratic Party 48% 291 seats
Democratic Party 23% 73 seats
Innovation Party 8% 41 seats
Komeito Party 1% 35 seats
Communist Party 13% 21 seats
Future Generations 2% 2 seats
Social Democratic Party 1% 2 seats
People’s Life Party 1% 2 seats
Independent 3% 8 seats

The only seat I have any knowledge of: Meguro, Nakano, Shinagawa and bits of Suginami. (Ok, Tokyo Number 7):
Constitutional Democrat 49%, Liberal Democrat 33%, others 18%, Constitutional Democrat hold.

Quick broad-brush overview:
Liberal Democrat ==> UK=Conservative Party
Constitutional Democrat - splitters from the Democrat Party (UK=LibDem) after they merged with the Innovation Party (UK=light Greens), result of a merger with the Democratic Party For the People (UK=Liberal) and the Social Democratic Party (UK=Labour) ==> continuity Liberal Party
Democrat Party - merger between Democrat Party (UK=LibDem) Innovation (UK=light Green) ==> UK=Progressive wing of Labour
Komeito - a religious party founded on Buddhist principles ==> UK=Christian Democrat Party/Ulster Unionist without the shouting
Communist - old school Commies with a decent suit and a haircut
Social Democrat - splitters from the Socialist Party ==> UK=Labour

[uthacalthing]

Sept 30, 2024 9:20:26 GMT The Bishop said:

So can I be the first to predict an LDP win? Not exactly sticking my neck out there, granted.

Great thread revival 

[J.G.Harston]

Japanese General Election is tomorrow. After a chat earlier today, I've boosted the turnout by one vote, converted a long-time "no vote" to voting. Might push overall turnout past 55%.

It was difficult to give any advice as her seat is brand new after boundary changes. Tokyo Number 26 (way for originality in names). It contains parts of four other seats, and the sitting former Constitutional Democrat member of one of the seats - Jin Matsubara -is standing here.

It's difficult to give a prediction here. If Matsubara was the ConDem candidate I'd say it would be a Dem Hold/Gain. But he blotted his copy book recently by downplaying Nanjing and the use of Comfort Women, and sat as an independent. The seats around this area of Tokyo is very much a ConDem territory, and there's no ConDem candidate, so he may get in a la Corbyn. So, as a punt I'll go with Indepenent/Constitutional Democrat 45%, Liberal Democrat 35%, others 20%, Constitutional Democrat sort-of gain/hold.

[IceAgeComing]

Looks like the LDP/Komeito have lost their majority: the NHK exit poll also suggests there's a chance they could fall behind the CDP. The exit poll in the last lower house election in Japan did underrepresent their support; but usually it's pretty good so I wouldn't assume that happens again. The early results are also suggesting a very strong opposition performance - 20 minutes after the polls close NHK is showing them only 20 seats below their 2021 total.

Turnout appears to have fallen a fair amount to the lowest ever level: with biggest falls in rural areas which also indicates poor LDP performance; it's also in line with what the polls were suggesting. The issue is that unless the CDP and DPFP perform at their top level the only realistic alternative is some unstable coalition that falls apart quickly; which probably only leads to the LDP winning for another 20 years.

[iain]

Looks like worse case scenario for LDP from the exit polls.

[The Bishop]

This is a pretty remarkable result given that nearly everybody assumed another comfortable LDP win after Kishida was potted.

[Georg Ebner]

Turns out, that choosing after a boring politican another boring one, who calls immediately snapElections, was kamikaze...

[Georg Ebner]

If anyone is interested in links to the fastest counting media:

- public broadCaster NHK:

www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/

- left Asahi:

www.asahi.com/senkyo/shuinsen/

[matureleft]

Seems a reasonable link to what’s happening.
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election/Japan-election-latest-Voting-enters-final-two-hours

[Forfarshire Conservative]

NHK has projected the Kōmeitō-LDP alliance has lost its majority.

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20241027/k10014620511000.html

[Sibboleth]

Well, twelve years after Abe's first landslide, the domination of Japanese political life by a rejuvenated LDP is very much over.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 27, 2024 11:21:06 GMT IceAgeComing said:

Looks like the LDP/Komeito have lost their majority: the NHK exit poll also suggests there's a chance they could fall behind the CDP. The exit poll in the last lower house election in Japan did underrepresent their support; but usually it's pretty good so I wouldn't assume that happens again. The early results are also suggesting a very strong opposition performance - 20 minutes after the polls close NHK is showing them only 20 seats below their 2021 total.

Turnout appears to have fallen a fair amount to the lowest ever level: with biggest falls in rural areas which also indicates poor LDP performance; it's also in line with what the polls were suggesting. The issue is that unless the CDP and DPFP perform at their top level the only realistic alternative is some unstable coalition that falls apart quickly; which probably only leads to the LDP winning for another 20 years.

In addition, the Supreme Court insisted on a long-overdue boundary review. Rural areas were hugely over represented as they were still using seats from before decades of population movement, the review has resulted in urban areas gaining more seats. Tokyo has gone from about 20 to 28 seats (my friend lives in the newly-drawn Tokyo 26).

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 26, 2024 14:53:51 GMT J.G.Harston said:

So, as a punt I'll go with Indepenent/Constitutional Democrat 45%, Liberal Democrat 35%, others 20%, Constitutional Democrat sort-of gain/hold.

Yey hey! Close enough:
Jin Mitsuwara, ConDem: 45%
Ueki Imaoka, LDP: 29% (won on PR list)
Masako Wada, Communist: 12%
Fumi Fujita, Sangsei: 7%
Masafumi Tabuchi, Intestinal Doctor: 6%

link

[redvers]

Any way for the CDP to assemble a coalition or the numbers not adding up?

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 27, 2024 16:37:59 GMT redvers said:

Any way for the CDP to assemble a coalition or the numbers not adding up?

It would have to be a "everybody but Homer" coalition to get the numbers. Officially, as of a few seconds ago, "Opposition" crept past 232 to become larger than "Government" edit: largest grouping, but the LDP/Komeito only needs another 24 seats to get a majority. The Democratic Party is broadly centre-right and has 26 seats so far, so an LDP/Komeito/Dem coalition could be cobbled together.

CDP is centre-left, to have a ruling coalition they would need to include the Democrats who are centre-right, *and* Innovation who are right-wing populists. Sort of: pre-1988 SDP in coalition with post-2019 Reform.

There's still another 25-ish seats to declare, and as in most countries the later declarations are rural seats and more likely to return LDP; so I think SDP will creep up a little more. They will end up the largest party, and the sitting government, which puts them in a good starting place for coalition neotiations.