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Texas
Sept 5, 2024 23:18:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:18:01 GMT
40 electoral college votes
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,585
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Texas
Sept 5, 2024 23:56:25 GMT
Post by john07 on Sept 5, 2024 23:56:25 GMT
I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028?
I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 955
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Texas
Sept 6, 2024 0:01:28 GMT
Post by nyx on Sept 6, 2024 0:01:28 GMT
On a good night for Harris she could probably win, with a coalition of decent Hispanic turnout and suburban voters. Difficult though and would require her to be winning by a considerable margin nationally.
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Texas
Sept 6, 2024 0:05:29 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 6, 2024 0:05:29 GMT
I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028? I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen. It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway) After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,585
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Post by john07 on Sept 6, 2024 0:09:16 GMT
I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028? I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen. It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway) After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably I think that the reason it hasn't happened yet is the capacity of the Republicans to reach into the Latino community.
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Texas
Sept 6, 2024 0:16:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 6, 2024 0:16:52 GMT
It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway) After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably I think that the reason it hasn't happened yet is the capacity of the Republicans to reach into the Latino community. As with many things in 2028 there’s also the question of where the GOP will be by then. Either it’ll be a term limited Trump without an obvious successor (not convinced JD Vance would be in that great a position even with the Vice Presidency) or Trump will be out of the picture as surely by then he’d be too old to give it another go (that’s without speculating how all the legal issues end)
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Texas
Sept 6, 2024 18:20:45 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 18:20:45 GMT
More evidence that the Senate race is in play. The ticket-splitting needed to keep Montana blue feels incredibly unlikely. I do believe Texas will vote to the left of Montana at the Senate level. Cruz on the other hand seems to be struggling with likability issues and I question whether he's gained more support from 2018.
YouGov gets a 2.9/3 rating from 538 pollster rankings, FWIW.
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