Texas

[stb12]

40 electoral college votes

[john07]

I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028?

I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen.

[nyx]

On a good night for Harris she could probably win, with a coalition of decent Hispanic turnout and suburban voters. Difficult though and would require her to be winning by a considerable margin nationally.

[stb12]

Sept 5, 2024 23:56:25 GMT john07 said:

I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028?

I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen.

It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway)

After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably

[john07]

Sept 6, 2024 0:05:29 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 5, 2024 23:56:25 GMT john07 said:

I don't expect a flip this year but maybe in 2028?

I know that this has been predicted for many years but I think it will happen.

It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway)

After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably

I think that the reason it hasn't happened yet is the capacity of the Republicans to reach into the Latino community.

[stb12]

Sept 6, 2024 0:09:16 GMT john07 said:

Sept 6, 2024 0:05:29 GMT stb12 said:

It could happen next time but it also strikes as one of these things that people could think is inevitable for a long time without actually ever happening (or not in the foreseeable future anyway)

After Ted Cruz’s near defeat in 2018 the Texas GOP certainly aren’t complacent anymore and that’s probably helped them see off subsequent challenges pretty comfortably

I think that the reason it hasn't happened yet is the capacity of the Republicans to reach into the Latino community.

As with many things in 2028 there’s also the question of where the GOP will be by then. Either it’ll be a term limited Trump without an obvious successor (not convinced JD Vance would be in that great a position even with the Vice Presidency) or Trump will be out of the picture as surely by then he’d be too old to give it another go (that’s without speculating how all the legal issues end)

[sanders]

More evidence that the Senate race is in play. The ticket-splitting needed to keep Montana blue feels incredibly unlikely. I do believe Texas will vote to the left of Montana at the Senate level. Cruz on the other hand seems to be struggling with likability issues and I question whether he's gained more support from 2018. 

YouGov gets a 2.9/3 rating from 538 pollster rankings, FWIW. 

[sanders]

Harris County, Texas early voting locations. Houston anchors this heavily populated county. 

Biden didn't even get 60% there, Harris needs a good Harris margin. 60% vote share for her ideally.

[sanders]

Ted Cruz is a partisan hack. Fingers crossed Colin Allred wins this.

[sanders]

Democrats spending another $6 million here. They're wisely prioritising Texas over Florida. I think Allred can do it. Cruz is not popular at all. He hasn't gained popularity since 2018. Y'know, the election he almost lost. How does a Republican underperform Trump? It takes effort to do that. Remember the tough winter of 2021. Cruz was in Cancun back then. He's just out of touch, ultimately. 

Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar rallying. Democrats' San Antonio margin will matter. Bexar County will definitely be important. Casar's Austin seat is safe, however. He's the most left-wing Texas Democrat. The San Antonio suburbs will matter. 

[stb12]

Oct 1, 2024 4:08:30 GMT sanders said:

Democrats spending another $6 million here. They're wisely prioritising Texas over Florida. I think Allred can do it. Cruz is not popular at all. He hasn't gained popularity since 2018. Y'know, the election he almost lost. How does a Republican underperform Trump? It takes effort to do that. Remember the tough winter of 2021. Cruz was in Cancun back then. He's just out of touch, ultimately. 

Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar rallying. Democrats' San Antonio margin will matter. Bexar County will definitely be important. Casar's Austin seat is safe, however. He's the most left-wing Texas Democrat. The San Antonio suburbs will matter. 

One obvious factor is that 2018 was a mid-term (with a GOP president as well) which has a lower turn out than a Presidential year. Also I believe then there was still a high amount of suspicion towards Cruz from Trump’s base due to the things he said about him during the 2016 primaries, in the years since he’s clearly become one of his strongest allies. So I don’t see there being much hesitation from Trump voters to pull him over the line especially if Trump himself makes a couple of interventions in the race

It’ll probably be an underwhelming margin but I still really struggle to see Cruz losing unless the GOP ticket in Texas performs much worse than expected overall

[sanders]

Oct 1, 2024 7:57:47 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 1, 2024 4:08:30 GMT sanders said:

Democrats spending another $6 million here. They're wisely prioritising Texas over Florida. I think Allred can do it. Cruz is not popular at all. He hasn't gained popularity since 2018. Y'know, the election he almost lost. How does a Republican underperform Trump? It takes effort to do that. Remember the tough winter of 2021. Cruz was in Cancun back then. He's just out of touch, ultimately. 

Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar rallying. Democrats' San Antonio margin will matter. Bexar County will definitely be important. Casar's Austin seat is safe, however. He's the most left-wing Texas Democrat. The San Antonio suburbs will matter. 

One obvious factor is that 2018 was a mid-term (with a GOP president as well) which has a lower turn out than a Presidential year. Also I believe then there was still a high amount of suspicion towards Cruz from Trump’s base due to the things he said about him during the 2016 primaries, in the years since he’s clearly become one of his strongest allies. So I don’t see there being much hesitation from Trump voters to pull him over the line especially if Trump himself makes a couple of interventions in the race

It’ll probably be an underwhelming margin but I still really struggle to see Cruz losing unless the GOP ticket in Texas performs much worse than expected overall

Low turnout is a double-edged sword. It generally helps Republicans win Texas. There were lawsuits against mail-in voting. A-G Ken Paxton largely instigated them. Texas would’ve been far closer otherwise. Paxton more or less admitted that. Trump isn’t that popular in TX.

[stb12]

Oct 1, 2024 9:19:29 GMT sanders said:

Oct 1, 2024 7:57:47 GMT stb12 said:

One obvious factor is that 2018 was a mid-term (with a GOP president as well) which has a lower turn out than a Presidential year. Also I believe then there was still a high amount of suspicion towards Cruz from Trump’s base due to the things he said about him during the 2016 primaries, in the years since he’s clearly become one of his strongest allies. So I don’t see there being much hesitation from Trump voters to pull him over the line especially if Trump himself makes a couple of interventions in the race

It’ll probably be an underwhelming margin but I still really struggle to see Cruz losing unless the GOP ticket in Texas performs much worse than expected overall

Low turnout is a double-edged sword. It generally helps Republicans win Texas. There were lawsuits against mail-in voting. A-G Ken Paxton largely instigated them. Texas would’ve been far closer otherwise. Paxton more or less admitted that. Trump isn’t that popular in TX.

The O’Rourke surge greatly encouraged Democrat turn out in 2018. Trump might not be greatly popular in Texas but he’s still expected to win it this time round hence i’d expect him to carry Cruz over the line

In spite of my scepticism however Cruz is clearly conscious that the race isn’t a done deal, he’s trying to rebrand from his total hardline imagine by playing up bipartisan work, and voted for the continuing resolution to prevent a government shut down: www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/ted-cruz-colin-allred-texas-00181509

[sanders]

Lone Star State voter registration data. Suburban areas turning out en masse. Note DFW in the north east. Suburban Austin also surging cleary here. Montgomery County (north of Houston) spiking. That county had Trump's biggest margin. I'm taking in raw vote terms. It might narrow this year, obviously. The Woodlands has some Democratic potential. Still, Montgomery County's ruby red Republican. Dark green have far more people. It's worth adding that caveat here. 

[sanders]

Emerson poll of Texas Senate race. Rated 2.9/3 in 538's pollster ratings. Same poll puts Trump 7% ahead.  

[stb12]

Oct 23, 2024 11:50:18 GMT sanders said:

Emerson poll of Texas Senate race. Rated 2.9/3 in 538's pollster ratings. Same poll puts Trump 7% ahead.  

I’d expect Trump to carry Cruz over the line going by that

[sanders]

Oct 23, 2024 11:54:39 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 23, 2024 11:50:18 GMT sanders said:

Emerson poll of Texas Senate race. Rated 2.9/3 in 538's pollster ratings. Same poll puts Trump 7% ahead.  

I’d expect Trump to carry Cruz over the line going by that

That would appear the most likely outcome. For me the big unknown is turnout which was the lowest in the country in 2020 at 51%. I also hope that having a Libertarian called Ted Brown running takes away a few votes from Ted Cruz. I remember in 2015 you had Steve Clegg running in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat. 

[stb12]

Oct 23, 2024 12:01:13 GMT sanders said:

Oct 23, 2024 11:54:39 GMT stb12 said:

I’d expect Trump to carry Cruz over the line going by that

That would appear the most likely outcome. For me the big unknown is turnout which was the lowest in the country in 2020 at 51%. I also hope that having a Libertarian called Ted Brown running takes away a few votes from Ted Cruz. I remember in 2015 you had Steve Clegg running in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat. 

Yeah it seems likely that Cruz will run behind Trump a bit, but can’t see it being by enough for Allred to win

[sanders]

The Rio Grande Valley (the southern border counties in the centre of the map) swung to Trump heavily in 2020. They're currently lagging behind the state-wide turnout in Texas (where around two million people have voted thus far). I don't think that long-term, the Republicans effectively swapping the suburbs around Austin, Dallas and Houston for South Texas is a wise move, because the RGV is far less populous. Still, it doesn't look like Harris is making gains in the Lone Star State. Trump's uptick with Hispanic men and other minorities may help the Republicans stave off the Democratic trend here.

[sanders]

Texas hits 45% of 2020 turnout. The voting pattern is clearer now. Suburbs are ahead of 2020 turnout. Republican-trending South Texas lags behind 2020.