Nebraska-at-large

[stb12]

2 electoral college votes

[sanders]

This suggests Fischer is as much at risk of losing to Osborn as Cruz is of losing to Allred. 

I sincerely hope Dan Osborn wins Nebraska, but it's unlikely given the state's partisan lean. 2006 was the last time the state elected a Democratic Senator, and 1936 was the last time the state elected an Independent, and he was an ex-Republican who stood for a third term as an independent. 

[Foggy]

I thought there were moves to stop this state from splitting its EC votes, and that the one State Senator who kept filibustering it retired? What happened there??

[sanders]

Sept 7, 2024 18:37:48 GMT Foggy said:

I thought there were moves to stop this state from splitting its EC votes, and that the one State Senator who kept filibustering it retired? What happened there??

There were. Maine could cancel it out by going to winner-takes-all. I think Nevada will vote to join Alaska and Maine by adopting Ranked Choice Voting this year.

For Osborn to win he needs to dominate in Omaha (NE-02) and probably carry the Lancaster-anchored NE-01.

[stb12]

I thought it would be too late for this but seems there is still a push to get Nebraska to go winner takes all

[Foggy]

The idea that anything other than a winner-take-all system means the US President somehow doesn't represent everybody is... an interesting intellectual argument.

As for the timing, I guess the state legislature could change the law anytime up to the 4th of November and then it'd probably be up to the courts to decide whether that was valid or not. Which, again, is an unsatisfactory outcome because it could feel like the election is being decided by a judge rather than at the ballot box.

[stb12]

Sept 19, 2024 19:16:56 GMT Foggy said:

The idea that anything other than a winner-take-all system means the US President somehow doesn't represent everybody is... an interesting intellectual argument.

As for the timing, I guess the state legislature could change the law anytime up to the 4th of November and then it'd probably be up to the courts to decide whether that was valid or not. Which, again, is an unsatisfactory outcome because it could feel like the election is being decided by a judge rather than at the ballot box.

If I remember correctly when it was tried earlier in the year Maine state politicians indicated they would move to do the same if it happened, with a Democrat trifecta it would likely pass. One of their electoral votes was Trump’s the last twice and is favoured to be so again, so any partisan advantage would likely be cancelled out anyway

[Foggy]

Sept 19, 2024 19:37:44 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 19, 2024 19:16:56 GMT Foggy said:

The idea that anything other than a winner-take-all system means the US President somehow doesn't represent everybody is... an interesting intellectual argument.

As for the timing, I guess the state legislature could change the law anytime up to the 4th of November and then it'd probably be up to the courts to decide whether that was valid or not. Which, again, is an unsatisfactory outcome because it could feel like the election is being decided by a judge rather than at the ballot box.

If I remember correctly when it was tried earlier in the year Maine state politicians indicated they would move to do the same if it happened, with a Democrat trifecta it would likely pass. One of their electoral votes was Trump’s the last twice and is favoured to be so again, so any partisan advantage would likely be cancelled out anyway

Kind of depressing that it would just turn into partisan tit-for-tat instead of each state basing their electoral system on a point of principle, but oh well, 'Murica gonna 'Murica I suppose. 

[stb12]

Sept 19, 2024 19:39:20 GMT Foggy said:

Sept 19, 2024 19:37:44 GMT stb12 said:

If I remember correctly when it was tried earlier in the year Maine state politicians indicated they would move to do the same if it happened, with a Democrat trifecta it would likely pass. One of their electoral votes was Trump’s the last twice and is favoured to be so again, so any partisan advantage would likely be cancelled out anyway

Kind of depressing that it would just turn into partisan tit-for-tat instead of each state basing their electoral system on a point of principle, but oh well, 'Murica gonna 'Murica I suppose. 

Indeed, I suppose it could have gone under the radar more if it had been done a couple of years ago but trying to change it this late in the cycle it’s hard to avoid the partisan look

Probably another indicator of where things are at the moment, considering the fuss Trump has made over 2020 you can only imagine what would happen if he lost by Nebraska 2nd’s one electoral vote

[sanders]

Sept 19, 2024 19:16:56 GMT Foggy said:

The idea that anything other than a winner-take-all system means the US President somehow doesn't represent everybody is... an interesting intellectual argument.

As for the timing, I guess the state legislature could change the law anytime up to the 4th of November and then it'd probably be up to the courts to decide whether that was valid or not. Which, again, is an unsatisfactory outcome because it could feel like the election is being decided by a judge rather than at the ballot box.

The Congressional District system is vulnerable to partisan gerrymandering. Ranked Choice Voting is far more preferable. Maine and Alaska both use it. 

[Foggy]

Even better than any of those options would be closed-list PR (yes, closed, since it's not like it matters who the delegates actually are), but it's difficult for state legislators to think outside of the box in that way.

[sanders]

I note that Survey USA's latest poll here gave Deb Fischer (R) a 1% lead over independent candidate Dan Osborn. We need more polls of likely voters, however.

[riccimarsh]

Sept 19, 2024 19:37:44 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 19, 2024 19:16:56 GMT Foggy said:

The idea that anything other than a winner-take-all system means the US President somehow doesn't represent everybody is... an interesting intellectual argument.

As for the timing, I guess the state legislature could change the law anytime up to the 4th of November and then it'd probably be up to the courts to decide whether that was valid or not. Which, again, is an unsatisfactory outcome because it could feel like the election is being decided by a judge rather than at the ballot box.

If I remember correctly when it was tried earlier in the year Maine state politicians indicated they would move to do the same if it happened, with a Democrat trifecta it would likely pass. One of their electoral votes was Trump’s the last twice and is favoured to be so again, so any partisan advantage would likely be cancelled out anyway

It is apparently already too late for Maine to switch to winner-takes-all in the upcoming Presidential election, as explained in the tweet below:

[sanders]

Sept 20, 2024 15:20:47 GMT riccimarsh said:

Sept 19, 2024 19:37:44 GMT stb12 said:

If I remember correctly when it was tried earlier in the year Maine state politicians indicated they would move to do the same if it happened, with a Democrat trifecta it would likely pass. One of their electoral votes was Trump’s the last twice and is favoured to be so again, so any partisan advantage would likely be cancelled out anyway

It is apparently already too late for Maine to switch to winner-takes-all in the upcoming Presidential election, as explained in the tweet below:

Polls always flatter to deceive for Republicans in Nevada. The large Hispanic population around Clark County (Las Vegas) is notoriously tricky to poll. In 2012, Obama was meant to narrowly win the state - he won it rather easily. In 2016, Trump was meant to carry the state - it didn't happen. I'm very sceptical that Trump will win NV, which sort of blows away this argument that Nebraska could do this. 

The funny thing would be if the election then came down to Ranked Choice Voting tabulations in Alaska! Funnily enough, the Maine and Nebraska system has been in place since 1972 so this would be quite the change. Colorado rejected adopting this Congressional District system in 2004. It always seemed to me the system was vulnerable to partisan gerrymandering. Far better to have AV. Nevada likely adopts that system in a ballot initiative this year. Massachusetts had a vote on it in 2020, but it lost handily (not that it would make the blindest bit of difference in the Bay State nowadays - maybe in 1980).

[Foggy]

Sept 20, 2024 15:38:47 GMT sanders said:

Sept 20, 2024 15:20:47 GMT riccimarsh said:

It is apparently already too late for Maine to switch to winner-takes-all in the upcoming Presidential election, as explained in the tweet below:

 Funnily enough, the Maine and Nebraska system has been in place since 1972 so this would be quite the change. Colorado rejected adopting this Congressional District system in 2004. 

According to the letter cited upthread it was 1992, at least for Nebraska. And of course, it didn't actually affect the result until 2008 in either case.

The 2004 Colorado referendum was about PR.

[stb12]

States get to decide how they assign their electoral votes but the potential lack of coherence and how it impacts the partisan outcome is a clear issue, especially in these polarised times

If somewhere like Colorado had gone proportional it would be a clear advantage to the Republicans now, albeit it wasn’t such a clear blue state back then (Bush Jr carries it twice)

[sanders]

Sept 20, 2024 19:27:51 GMT stb12 said:

States get to decide how they assign their electoral votes but the potential lack of coherence and how it impacts the partisan outcome is a clear issue, especially in these polarised times

If somewhere like Colorado had gone proportional it would be a clear advantage to the Republicans now, albeit it wasn’t such a clear blue state back then (Bush Jr carries it twice)

It’ll be interesting to see if Nevada adopts ranked choice voting and where else may attempt this. Nevada is the most swingy state where it’s on the ballot. Another interesting development is Louisiana axing the top two primary for congressional elections. There was also talk in Montana about bringing in a top two primary for this year’s Senate race to boost their chances of getting Tim Sheehy elected.

[stb12]

Sept 20, 2024 20:03:51 GMT sanders said:

Sept 20, 2024 19:27:51 GMT stb12 said:

States get to decide how they assign their electoral votes but the potential lack of coherence and how it impacts the partisan outcome is a clear issue, especially in these polarised times

If somewhere like Colorado had gone proportional it would be a clear advantage to the Republicans now, albeit it wasn’t such a clear blue state back then (Bush Jr carries it twice)

It’ll be interesting to see if Nevada adopts ranked choice voting and where else may attempt this. Nevada is the most swingy state where it’s on the ballot. Another interesting development is Louisiana axing the top two primary for congressional elections.

Its difficult to say what kind of impact that would have, certainly the Hilary Clinton campaign felt that the Green vote splitting them was a problem in 2016 swing states but there was also a high Libertarian vote that year and who knows where second preferences would have gone there?

[stb12]

Influential Republican state senator Mike McDonnell has come out against changing the system this late in the day, so that pretty much kills it

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894622-nebraska-republican-opposes-electoral-vote/

[sanders]

Sept 23, 2024 23:20:33 GMT stb12 said:

Influential Republican state senator Mike McDonnell has come out against changing the system this late in the day, so that pretty much kills it

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4894622-nebraska-republican-opposes-electoral-vote/

Thank goodness. This whole spectacle heavily implies Republicans have given up on Omaha (NE-02). It’s interesting they didn’t crack Omaha three ways in redistricting. Plenty of GOP states did seem to show restraint however. Sununu wasn’t having it in New Hampshire when someone came up with a McCain-voting NH-01. We also didn’t see an overly aggressive gerrymander in Indiana even though the Indianapolis seat could theoretically have been cracked.

All this Nebraska attempted skullduggery also suggests that Don Bacon is cooked. I’m inclined to agree with that.

After this year, it's likely more states will use the Ranked Choice Voting system than the Congressional District system, as Nevada will likely vote in favour of it and join Alaska and Maine to use AV for elections. I can see this continue to proliferate as a compromise instead of axing the Electoral College. Ranked Choice Voting will certainly matter for Congresswoman Mary Peltola in AK, and may influence the presidential election if Trump falls below 50%, which is a distinct possibility if Democrats continue to improve in Anchorage (which Biden won) and Fairbanks, in particular.