stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 24, 2024 12:52:56 GMT
Thank goodness. This whole spectacle heavily implies Republicans have given up on Omaha (NE-02). It’s interesting they didn’t crack Omaha three ways in redistricting. Plenty of GOP states did seem to show restraint however. Sununu wasn’t having it in New Hampshire when someone came up with a McCain-voting NH-01. We also didn’t see an overly aggressive gerrymander in Indiana even though the Indianapolis seat could theoretically have been cracked. All this Nebraska attempted skullduggery also suggests that Don Bacon is cooked. I’m inclined to agree with that. After this year, it's likely more states will use the Ranked Choice Voting system than the Congressional District system, as Nevada will likely vote in favour of it and join Alaska and Maine to use AV for elections. I can see this continue to proliferate as a compromise instead of axing the Electoral College. Ranked Choice Voting will certainly matter for Congresswoman Mary Peltola in AK, and may influence the presidential election if Trump falls below 50%, which is a distinct possibility if Democrats continue to improve in Anchorage (which Biden won) and Fairbanks, in particular. The Nebraka Legislature is interesting compared to most other states. It’s unicameral and officially non-partisan, it doesn’t recognise political party labels and there aren’t any caucus leaderships based on parties. So it’s a system that maybe makes it easier for people to avoid partisan political pressure |
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Post by sanders on Sept 24, 2024 14:46:06 GMT
Thank goodness. This whole spectacle heavily implies Republicans have given up on Omaha (NE-02). It’s interesting they didn’t crack Omaha three ways in redistricting. Plenty of GOP states did seem to show restraint however. Sununu wasn’t having it in New Hampshire when someone came up with a McCain-voting NH-01. We also didn’t see an overly aggressive gerrymander in Indiana even though the Indianapolis seat could theoretically have been cracked. All this Nebraska attempted skullduggery also suggests that Don Bacon is cooked. I’m inclined to agree with that. After this year, it's likely more states will use the Ranked Choice Voting system than the Congressional District system, as Nevada will likely vote in favour of it and join Alaska and Maine to use AV for elections. I can see this continue to proliferate as a compromise instead of axing the Electoral College. Ranked Choice Voting will certainly matter for Congresswoman Mary Peltola in AK, and may influence the presidential election if Trump falls below 50%, which is a distinct possibility if Democrats continue to improve in Anchorage (which Biden won) and Fairbanks, in particular. The Nebraka Legislature is interesting compared to most other states. It’s unicameral and officially non-partisan, it doesn’t recognise political party labels and there aren’t any caucus leaderships based on parties. So it’s a system that maybe makes it easier for people to avoid partisan political pressure Nebraska Republicans aren't fans of Trump's suggestion on who or what they should support. His choice for governor, Charles Herbster, lost the 2022 primary. I'm guessing the somewhat independent spirit you mention is what Dan Osborn (I) is hoping will put him over the top in the state, over Fischer. It seems unlikely, currently. Funnily enough we almost saw Republicans lose the 1st District in 2022, and it's possible it could get competitive one day (a 6% win in the 2022 special election for Mike Flood. It was actually quite difficult to gerrymander NE-2 because of how compact Omaha is. There are clear parallels with Kansas's 3rd with suburban Omaha going the same way as Overland Park and the Kansas City suburbs in terms of its Democratic trend. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Oct 17, 2024 21:27:24 GMT
Internal poll from the Fischer campaign, still closer than she’d like I’d imagine
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Post by sanders on Oct 19, 2024 6:05:20 GMT
Internal poll from the Fischer campaign, still closer than she’d like I’d imagine Margin of Error is around 3%. There are only two candidates running. You’d rather be Fischer right now. Still, anything that forces RSCC spending here, depriving Cruz of funding in Texas, or Moreno of funding in Ohio, is welcome. Nebraska is cheaper to campaign in. Population concentrated in Lancaster, Lincoln, Omaha. Democrats have put money into this. An embarrassing poll for the GOP. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 28, 2024 16:51:35 GMT
Harris is surging in Nebraska's 2nd. Republicans aren't holding the Congressional seat. Straightforward Democratic pickup here I think. I'll be shocked if Democrats lose. Bacon should've run for Senate, honestly. Omaha has ben left-trending for years. He had a good run, however.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Oct 28, 2024 17:33:48 GMT
Harris is surging in Nebraska's 2nd. Republicans aren't holding the Congressional seat. Straightforward Democratic pickup here I think. I'll be shocked if Democrats lose. Bacon should've run for Senate, honestly. Omaha has ben left-trending for years. He had a good run, however. It does seem a pretty heavy movement from when Trump won the district in 2016 |
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Post by sanders on Oct 30, 2024 7:32:13 GMT
This looks right, but it's a two horse race, so interested to see how close Osborn gets here. He's running as a genuine independent it seems, rather than just a Democrat in disguise. That's clever since Trump is on course to win here by around 20 points or so. It still probably requires too much split-ticket voting for Osborn to actually get over the line, but it perhaps provides a blueprint for independents in slightly less Republican states like Alaska or Kansas.
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