Alaska

[sanders]

Nov 13, 2024 9:05:45 GMT stb12 said:

Nov 13, 2024 7:57:56 GMT iain said:

Peltola barely wins a big ballot drop, taking the count to 90% completed. Hard to see any path to victory for her now.

Might make things a bit awkward in the Alaska delegation with Murkowski having endorsed Peltola!

Democrats saved Lisa Murkowski in 2022. Similarly, Peltola got decent crossover support. How else to explain her winning? Obviously, Palin was a weak candidate. Begich is a better fit here. His father won as a Democrat. Curious to see RCV referendum results. Murkowski did win a write-in campaign before. Democrats silver lining was Fairbanks mayoralty. Small silver lining but even so.

[stb12]

Nov 13, 2024 9:31:57 GMT sanders said:

Nov 13, 2024 9:05:45 GMT stb12 said:

Might make things a bit awkward in the Alaska delegation with Murkowski having endorsed Peltola!

Democrats saved Lisa Murkowski in 2022. Similarly, Peltola got decent crossover support. How else to explain her winning? Obviously, Palin was a weak candidate. Begich is a better fit here. His father won as a Democrat. Curious to see RCV referendum results. Murkowski did win a write-in campaign before. Democrats silver lining was Fairbanks mayoralty. Small silver lining but even so.

If it’s back to normal partisan primaries then Murkowski will have an uphill battle no doubt if she wants to run again especially since Trump won and will therefore still be influential in 2028. You could get some Democrats and independents registering to vote in a GOP primary for her but would it likely be enough?

Another write-in campaign is possible but tough. Her best option may be to register as an independent while still caucusing with the Republicans and prepare to run that way, the Senate GOP leadership may even agree to back her. But she does have a bit of time to decide when it’s four years away

[timrollpickering]

The ranked choice repeal ballot measure is currently trailing by just 45 yes forty five votes with 99% counted.

[iain]

Nov 20, 2024 23:09:06 GMT timrollpickering said:

The ranked choice repeal ballot measure is currently trailing by just 45 yes forty five votes with 99% counted.

In the final unofficial tally the repeal effort has failed by 664 votes. Peltola meanwhile was defeated by 8,354 (2.6%) after RCV. I wonder what she will do next - Dems will be desperate to recruit her for Senate in 2028, but there are pretty strong rumours that she wants to run for Governor.

[stb12]

Nov 21, 2024 3:07:57 GMT iain said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:09:06 GMT timrollpickering said:

The ranked choice repeal ballot measure is currently trailing by just 45 yes forty five votes with 99% counted.

In the final unofficial tally the repeal effort has failed by 664 votes. Peltola meanwhile was defeated by 8,354 (2.6%) after RCV. I wonder what she will do next - Dems will be desperate to recruit her for Senate in 2028, but there are pretty strong rumours that she wants to run for Governor.

I’m assuming you mean 2026 which is the Senate seat up first. She’ll no doubt be a recruitment aim for that as the Democrats will need to target a longer shot seat or two like that to have a chance of taking the Senate back in two years

I think it would be a tough ask if Dan Sullivan is running again. He doesn’t have the same wide appeal amongst Democrats and Independents as Lisa Murkowski and has been much more loyal to Trump, but he hasn’t turned into some kind of loonball either and has still taken more moderate votes on certain issues as well as focussing a lot on Alaska issues. He won’t attract a Trump backed Republican challenger the way Murkowski did so as a two term incumbent I’d expect him to be fine unless the national picture really does look grim and sees a few other Senate seats at risk. On the other hand the incumbent governor will be term limited in 2026 so I can imagine Peltola having a far better chance with an open non-federal contest like that

The RCV system staying in place notably gives Murkowski a clear path to run again in 2028 even if Trump is still trying to get her out by then, a return to the partisan primaries would have been tough to say the least

[iain]

Yes 2026 sorry.

[stb12]

Nick Begich’s election marks an interesting turn considering he comes from a family of Alaska Democrat politicians going back a long time

[eastmidlandsright]

Nov 21, 2024 8:27:39 GMT stb12 said:

The RCV system staying in place notably gives Murkowski a clear path to run again in 2028 even if Trump is still trying to get her out by then, a return to the partisan primaries would have been tough to say the least

Murkowski had a clear path to re-election in 2028 regardless of the outcome but this is a good result for her as it means she can run for re-election as a Republican. Had RCV been abolished she would have had almost no chance in Republican primary and would probably have run as an Independent from the outset. This would have been a better option than losing the primary and then running as write in candidate as she did 2010 but would have likely caused her problems within the Senate GOP Conference.

[stb12]

Nov 21, 2024 16:35:38 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Nov 21, 2024 8:27:39 GMT stb12 said:

The RCV system staying in place notably gives Murkowski a clear path to run again in 2028 even if Trump is still trying to get her out by then, a return to the partisan primaries would have been tough to say the least

Murkowski had a clear path to re-election in 2028 regardless of the outcome but this is a good result for her as it means she can run for re-election as a Republican. Had RCV been abolished she would have had almost no chance in Republican primary and would probably have run as an Independent from the outset. This would have been a better option than losing the primary and then running as write in candidate as she did 2010 but would have likely caused her problems within the Senate GOP Conference.

I agree that would have been her best approach, Alaska is certainly a state with enough of an independent streak. However I probably wouldn’t describe it as a clear path and would have been influenced by whether the Senate GOP leadership decided to back her with fundraising as an incumbent member of the caucus or get right behind whoever the official nominee was

Having said all that is there anything to stop the repeal campaign trying again before 2028? With such a narrow loss it seems doubtful they’d just give up