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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2024 12:13:50 GMT
Don Young seems to have never been all that personally popular, but he brought a lot of federal money into the state which helped keep him in place for so long Yes 2020 shows this very well. Trump, Sullivan, Young won by 10. I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win
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Alaska
Sept 13, 2024 12:19:38 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 13, 2024 12:19:38 GMT
Yes 2020 shows this very well. Trump, Sullivan, Young won by 10. I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win True, but the GOP won Alaska's electoral votes every time without difficulty, even in 1992 when it was a three-way race. Alaska has voted Republican in every election since LBJ's landslide, along with Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Wyoming almost elected a Democrat to the House in 2006 (an interesting election with the old north-south divide). Of those states, the Dakotas elected Democrats pretty easily at times, and Montana had two Democratic Senators from 1978 to 1988, and again from 2006 to 2014 (when Max Baucus retired). Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. Alaska did elect a Democratic Senator in 2008 (felling a 40-year incumbent Republican, Ted Stevens, in the process). If I was Mary Peltola, I'd be confident of giving Dan Sullivan a run for his money in 2026, so long as she can get over the line this year. 2024 could be the closest Republican win in AK (Trump's 2020 win was so-so).
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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2024 12:26:50 GMT
I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win True, but the GOP won Alaska's electoral votes every time without difficulty, even in 1992 when it was a three-way race. Alaska has voted Republican in every election since LBJ's landslide, along with Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Wyoming almost elected a Democrat to the House in 2006 (an interesting election with the old north-south divide). Of those states, the Dakotas elected Democrats pretty easily at times, and Montana had two Democratic Senators from 1978 to 1988, and again from 2006 to 2014 (when Max Baucus retired). Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. Alaska did elect a Democratic Senator in 2008 (felling a 40-year incumbent Republican, Ted Stevens, in the process). If I was Mary Peltola, I'd be confident of giving Dan Sullivan a run for his money in 2026, so long as she can get over the line this year. 2024 could be the closest Republican win in AK (Trump's 2020 win was so-so). With the Ted Stevens defeat it has to be put down to him getting convicted on corruption charges a week before the election, considering it was so narrow even with that The conviction later got overturned and he then died in a plane crash 2010, pretty rotten end to his life overall
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Alaska
Sept 14, 2024 3:49:58 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 3:49:58 GMT
Donald Trump leads 47% - 42%. It sounds very plausible to me. Alaska has Ranked Choice Voting, FWIW. It's the Last Frontier for Harris. Democrats haven't won it since 1964. Anchorage and Juneau drive Alaska left. Lots of rural Democrats here too. Fairbanks is becoming more competitive nowadays.
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Alaska
Sept 14, 2024 4:28:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 14, 2024 4:28:50 GMT
As I said earlier in the thread, there’s certainly some evidence that Trumpism isn’t universally popular in Alaska, however for him to lose the state would require a Harris landslide nationally
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Alaska
Sept 14, 2024 6:18:47 GMT
Post by sanders on Sept 14, 2024 6:18:47 GMT
As I said earlier in the thread, there’s certainly some evidence that Trumpism isn’t universally popular in Alaska, however for him to lose the state would require a Harris landslide nationally It might under FPTP, but Alaska is using RCV. It's likely he'd still win, but him falling from 52% to sub-50% wouldn't be too shocking. If we accept that Alaska in 2020 shifted 5% to the left while the USA only shifted 3% to the Democrats, then we can legitimately surmise that the state is moving left more than the wider country. I concede that the 5% for Kennedy Jr. in the poll would likely go to Trump, but Trump shedding 5% to him in the first place is an interesting discussion point, because it would lead to the winner relying on Ranked Choice Voting to win Alaska's three Electoral College votes. Which could be problematic if it's the last state to declare and decides the race. Alaska Survey Research is the gold standard for the Last Frontier. It's the equivalent of Marquette University polling in Wisconsin.
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