Alaska

[stb12]

Sept 13, 2024 10:05:48 GMT sanders said:

Sept 13, 2024 10:01:58 GMT stb12 said:

Don Young seems to have never been all that personally popular, but he brought a lot of federal money into the state which helped keep him in place for so long

Yes 2020 shows this very well. Trump, Sullivan, Young won by 10.

I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 12:13:50 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 13, 2024 10:05:48 GMT sanders said:

Yes 2020 shows this very well. Trump, Sullivan, Young won by 10.

I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win

True, but the GOP won Alaska's electoral votes every time without difficulty, even in 1992 when it was a three-way race. Alaska has voted Republican in every election since LBJ's landslide, along with Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Wyoming almost elected a Democrat to the House in 2006 (an interesting election with the old north-south divide). Of those states, the Dakotas elected Democrats pretty easily at times, and Montana had two Democratic Senators from 1978 to 1988, and again from 2006 to 2014 (when Max Baucus retired). Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. Alaska did elect a Democratic Senator in 2008 (felling a 40-year incumbent Republican, Ted Stevens, in the process). If I was Mary Peltola, I'd be confident of giving Dan Sullivan a run for his money in 2026, so long as she can get over the line this year. 2024 could be the closest Republican win in AK (Trump's 2020 win was so-so). 

[stb12]

Sept 13, 2024 12:19:38 GMT sanders said:

Sept 13, 2024 12:13:50 GMT stb12 said:

I was referring to his longevity, with the House seat up every two years that was a lot of elections to win

True, but the GOP won Alaska's electoral votes every time without difficulty, even in 1992 when it was a three-way race. Alaska has voted Republican in every election since LBJ's landslide, along with Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Wyoming almost elected a Democrat to the House in 2006 (an interesting election with the old north-south divide). Of those states, the Dakotas elected Democrats pretty easily at times, and Montana had two Democratic Senators from 1978 to 1988, and again from 2006 to 2014 (when Max Baucus retired). Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. Alaska did elect a Democratic Senator in 2008 (felling a 40-year incumbent Republican, Ted Stevens, in the process). If I was Mary Peltola, I'd be confident of giving Dan Sullivan a run for his money in 2026, so long as she can get over the line this year. 2024 could be the closest Republican win in AK (Trump's 2020 win was so-so). 

With the Ted Stevens defeat it has to be put down to him getting convicted on corruption charges a week before the election, considering it was so narrow even with that

The conviction later got overturned and he then died in a plane crash 2010, pretty rotten end to his life overall

[sanders]

Donald Trump leads 47% - 42%. It sounds very plausible to me. Alaska has Ranked Choice Voting, FWIW. It's the Last Frontier for Harris. Democrats haven't won it since 1964. Anchorage and Juneau drive Alaska left. Lots of rural Democrats here too. Fairbanks is becoming more competitive nowadays.

[stb12]

As I said earlier in the thread, there’s certainly some evidence that Trumpism isn’t universally popular in Alaska, however for him to lose the state would require a Harris landslide nationally

[sanders]

Sept 14, 2024 4:28:50 GMT stb12 said:

As I said earlier in the thread, there’s certainly some evidence that Trumpism isn’t universally popular in Alaska, however for him to lose the state would require a Harris landslide nationally

It might under FPTP, but Alaska is using RCV. It's likely he'd still win, but him falling from 52% to sub-50% wouldn't be too shocking. If we accept that Alaska in 2020 shifted 5% to the left while the USA only shifted 3% to the Democrats, then we can legitimately surmise that the state is moving left more than the wider country.

I concede that the 5% for Kennedy Jr. in the poll would likely go to Trump, but Trump shedding 5% to him in the first place is an interesting discussion point, because it would lead to the winner relying on Ranked Choice Voting to win Alaska's three Electoral College votes. Which could be problematic if it's the last state to declare and decides the race. Alaska Survey Research is the gold standard for the Last Frontier. It's the equivalent of Marquette University polling in Wisconsin. 

[sanders]

Good news for Democrats in Alaska. Fairbanks elects ex-Democrat as mayor. Trump won the city by 10%.

[iain]

It's an internal, so treat with appropriate scepticism, but the GOP definitely seem hopeful of knocking off Mary Peltola this year:

[sanders]

Veteran Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski effectively endorsing Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola here. This time, Republicans fielded a stronger challenger in the form of Nick Begich III. Lisa Murowski's support may make all the difference here.

Murkowski will likely be the most powerful person in Washington in January if Republicans win the Senate. She relied in Biden voters to win re-election in 2022 (Trump endorsed her MAGA challenger Kelly Tshibaka). Murkowski voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment. I could see her and / or Susan Collins backing some of Harris's agenda in office if Harris wins, and being something of a thorn in Trump's side should he win.

[stb12]

Oct 21, 2024 14:48:23 GMT iain said:

It's an internal, so treat with appropriate scepticism, but the GOP definitely seem hopeful of knocking off Mary Peltola this year:

Nancy Dahlstrom withdrawing was a potential game changer, even with ranked choice voting having two major Republicans fighting each other two years ago while Peltola was basically on her own was damaging

[stb12]

Oct 21, 2024 14:52:50 GMT sanders said:

Veteran Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski effectively endorsing Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola here. This time, Republicans fielded a stronger challenger in the form of Nick Begich III. Lisa Murowski's support may make all the difference here.

Murkowski will likely be the most powerful person in Washington in January if Republicans win the Senate. She relied in Biden voters to win re-election in 2022 (Trump endorsed her MAGA challenger Kelly Tshibaka). Murkowski voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment. I could see her and / or Susan Collins backing some of Harris's agenda in office if Harris wins, and being something of a thorn in Trump's side should he win.

She endorsed her two years ago and Peltola did the same the other way around so probably not hugely surprising

There’s also a ballot measure being voted on to repeal the Jungle Primary/RCV system, unsurprisingly Murkowski is against it

[sanders]

Oct 21, 2024 16:54:38 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 21, 2024 14:52:50 GMT sanders said:

Veteran Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski effectively endorsing Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola here. This time, Republicans fielded a stronger challenger in the form of Nick Begich III. Lisa Murowski's support may make all the difference here.

Murkowski will likely be the most powerful person in Washington in January if Republicans win the Senate. She relied in Biden voters to win re-election in 2022 (Trump endorsed her MAGA challenger Kelly Tshibaka). Murkowski voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment. I could see her and / or Susan Collins backing some of Harris's agenda in office if Harris wins, and being something of a thorn in Trump's side should he win.

She endorsed her two years ago and Peltola did the same the other way around so probably not hugely surprising

There’s also a ballot measure being voted on to repeal the Jungle Primary/RCV system, unsurprisingly Murkowski is against it

Turkeys don't generally vote for Christmas. 

[stb12]

Nick Begich is currently leading the House race but still not called yet. The ballot measure to repeal the jungle primary and ranked choice voting system is also narrowly leading

[sanders]

Nov 6, 2024 21:15:02 GMT stb12 said:

Nick Begich is currently leading the House race but still not called yet. The ballot measure to repeal the jungle primary and ranked choice voting system is also narrowly leading

Republicans should never have lost this in the first place. Trump won Alaska by 10% in 2020. This is entirely down to Sarah Palin running in 2022. Trump is on track for a big victory in Alaska so it's not surprising that they're on course to win back the House seat. The ballot initiative may mean the end of Lisa Murkowski's career in 2028, but you can never rule here out given the success of her write-in campaign in 2010.

[sanders]

Mary Peltola has filed for 2026.

[stb12]

Nov 9, 2024 12:33:46 GMT sanders said:

Mary Peltola has filed for 2026.

So probably trying again even if she loses

[sanders]

Nov 9, 2024 13:59:18 GMT stb12 said:

Nov 9, 2024 12:33:46 GMT sanders said:

Mary Peltola has filed for 2026.

So probably trying again even if she loses

Absolutely. Living Democrats who've won statewide in Alaska: Mark Begich (2008), Mary Peltola (2022 x 2); Tony Knowles (1994 and 1998). That's it. 

[eastmidlandsright]

Filing with the FEC for 2026 doesn't mean she is running. It is a legal requirement for her to do so if she wants to continue raising funds beyond 31st December and she may well have campaign debt that she needs to pay off. She had just over $1 million cash on hand as of 16th October but probably spent that and more during the last 3 weeks of he campaign.

[iain]

Peltola barely wins a big ballot drop, taking the count to 90% completed. Hard to see any path to victory for her now.

[stb12]

Nov 13, 2024 7:57:56 GMT iain said:

Peltola barely wins a big ballot drop, taking the count to 90% completed. Hard to see any path to victory for her now.

Might make things a bit awkward in the Alaska delegation with Murkowski having endorsed Peltola!