Alaska

[stb12]

3 electoral college votes

[nyx]

I think this has potential to be the surprise flip of the night. Mary Peltola is very popular so could help boost turnout by people who would also vote for Harris.

Even if it doesn't flip, I'd be surprised if Trump wins by more than 5%.

[stb12]

Sept 5, 2024 23:41:53 GMT nyx said:

I think this has potential to be the surprise flip of the night. Mary Peltola is very popular so could help boost turnout by people who would also vote for Harris.

Even if it doesn't flip, I'd be surprised if Trump wins by more than 5%.

Peltola very much has her own personal brand (not unusual for Alaska representatives/senators) and will be keeping a distance from the Presidential ticket if anything, she has the added challenge of only one major Republican challenger to deal with now as well

There have been signs that Trump’s brand of Republicanism isn’t loved in Alaska but he still won it by 10 points last time out, so for it to flip I’d think he’d be having a really dreadful night nationally, far worse than the polls currently indicate

[johng]

I'd rather be Peltola right now than her GOP opponent, but Harris isn't winning this unless Trump really slumps nationally.

[stb12]

Sept 6, 2024 0:11:36 GMT johng said:

I'd rather be Peltola right now than her GOP opponent, but Harris isn't winning this unless Trump really slumps nationally.

She’s well liked personally and Alaska tends to be fond of it’s incumbents so Peltola is definitely still the favourite, but Nancy Dahlstrom dropping out to leave Nick Begich does create more of a challenge as last time out there were two high profile Republicans and the preference system wasn’t enough to prevent a split

[timrollpickering]

For what it's worth Peltola took 50.9% in the blanket primary, with another Democrat on 0.4%, whilst the four Republican candidates took 47.5%.

Did anyone ever take the votes from either 2022 election and calculate a two candidate preferred for a Peltola/Begich line-up?

[sanders]

This one is trending Democrat faster than Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Georgia. 30% win for Bush in 2000, now down to 10% with Democrats challenging for the state legislature this year. Long-term this is worth heavy investment by Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents because of the two Senate seats.

[riccimarsh]

Sept 7, 2024 21:17:59 GMT sanders said:

This one is trending Democrat faster than Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Georgia. 30% win for Bush in 2000, now down to 10% with Democrats challenging for the state legislature this year. Long-term this is worth heavy investment by Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents because of the two Senate seats.

Ah yes, Alaska is trending Democrat faster than three States that voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election.

[iain]

Sept 7, 2024 21:05:34 GMT timrollpickering said:

For what it's worth Peltola took 50.9% in the blanket primary, with another Democrat on 0.4%, whilst the four Republican candidates took 47.5%.

Did anyone ever take the votes from either 2022 election and calculate a two candidate preferred for a Peltola/Begich line-up?

It has been worked out - I forget the exact result, but IIRC it was basically no different to what Palin achieved

[sanders]

Sept 7, 2024 23:48:17 GMT riccimarsh said:

Sept 7, 2024 21:17:59 GMT sanders said:

This one is trending Democrat faster than Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Georgia. 30% win for Bush in 2000, now down to 10% with Democrats challenging for the state legislature this year. Long-term this is worth heavy investment by Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents because of the two Senate seats.

Ah yes, Alaska is trending Democrat faster than three States that voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election.

In a purely mathematical sense, yes. 

[stb12]

Sept 7, 2024 21:05:34 GMT timrollpickering said:

For what it's worth Peltola took 50.9% in the blanket primary, with another Democrat on 0.4%, whilst the four Republican candidates took 47.5%.

Did anyone ever take the votes from either 2022 election and calculate a two candidate preferred for a Peltola/Begich line-up?

Solid result for Peltola there but one factor is you’d have to think turnout will be much higher in November

[sanders]

I'll just leave this post here. Borough results using combined Democrat and Republican vote shares:

[The Bishop]

I know this is highly likely to stay GOP at POTUS level, but given recent trends referred to above a poll might still be in order?

[sanders]

Sept 8, 2024 11:17:17 GMT The Bishop said:

I know this is highly likely to stay GOP at POTUS level, but given recent trends referred to above a poll might still be in order?

We should have a poll because Alaska uses Ranked Choice Voting for President as well as Congressperson and Senator. I believe Alaska-at-large is the reddest seat with a Democratic incumbent, after Jon Tester Montana Senate seat up this year (Joe Manchin is now an independent). 

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 7, 2024 23:48:17 GMT riccimarsh said:

Sept 7, 2024 21:17:59 GMT sanders said:

This one is trending Democrat faster than Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Georgia. 30% win for Bush in 2000, now down to 10% with Democrats challenging for the state legislature this year. Long-term this is worth heavy investment by Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents because of the two Senate seats.

Ah yes, Alaska is trending Democrat faster than three States that voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election.

Of course it's possible for a Republican state to trend more heavily towards the Democrats than a marginal or a Democrat state, without the winner changing. Trend is just the difference between the change in share or lead relative to the national figures. It's unarguable for example that Alaska has trended to the Democrats at the last three elections whereas (for example) Pennsylvania has trended Republican, including in 2020 when they lost the state.
I'm not sure sanders is correct that Alaska 'is trending Democrat faster' than the other states he mentioned. The trend has been higher in Alaska than any of those states since 2000 but while that might seem to be a logical starting point, ultimately its as arbitrary as any other. Most of the accumalative swing to the Democrats over that period occurred up to 2012. In 2016 it was much lower than in all those states except for North Carolina and in 2020 it was still lower than in Georgia and Virginia. The trend since 2012 likewise shows a lower pro Democrat trend in Alaska than in any of those states (again exceping North Carolina)..
So you could say it has trended Democrat more than those states since 2000 but the use of the word 'is' as opposed to 'has' would lead one to think this applies to current trends and (unless sanders is referring to current polling) that is not borne out by the figures.
But your objection to the proposition is based on facts which are entirely irrelevant.

[eastmidlandsright]

Sept 8, 2024 9:44:15 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 7, 2024 21:05:34 GMT timrollpickering said:

For what it's worth Peltola took 50.9% in the blanket primary, with another Democrat on 0.4%, whilst the four Republican candidates took 47.5%.

Did anyone ever take the votes from either 2022 election and calculate a two candidate preferred for a Peltola/Begich line-up?

Solid result for Peltola there but one factor is you’d have to think turnout will be much higher in November

There were roughly 108,000 votes cast in the primary. A general election in a presidential year will probably see around 3 times that.

[sanders]

2022 House election final result

Peltola (D) 137,263 (55%)
Palin (R) 112,471 (45%)

That's quite something for AK. We will see if Begich is able to overcome a 10% majority in 2022, even with Presidential turnout. Plus if there's a swing to Democrats nationally, I wouldn't be shocked if it was higher in Alaska than elsewhere. I don't quite see Trump carrying the state by 10% again this year. The migration issue isn't really as potent in Alaska as it might be in Texas or Arizona. I say that because immigration seems to be Trump's strongest issue nationally. 

Many Democrats likely plumped for Murkowski in the general election too, because she faced off against Trump-backed challenger Kelly Tshibaka. 

[timrollpickering]

Sept 8, 2024 11:04:11 GMT sanders said:

I'll just leave this post here. Borough results using combined Democrat and Republican vote shares:

Slight correction - in 1972 Democrat Nick Begich (senior - the current Republican candidate's grandfather) won election to a second term between disappearing in a plane crash in October and being declared dead at the end of December. Also on board was Hale Boggs, the sitting House Majority Leader who had previously served on the Warren Commission (and yes the conspiracy theorists have done their work - apparently Boggs, though publicly defending the findings, had private doubts and it was he - a Louisiana Congressman - who spurred Jim Garrison into investigating the case).

Don Young was first elected in the March 1973 special election, the only Republican gain during that term.

[stb12]

Sept 13, 2024 9:17:29 GMT timrollpickering said:

Sept 8, 2024 11:04:11 GMT sanders said:

I'll just leave this post here. Borough results using combined Democrat and Republican vote shares:

Slight correction - in 1972 Democrat Nick Begich (senior - the current Republican candidate's grandfather) won election to a second term between disappearing in a plane crash in October and being declared dead at the end of December. Also on board was Hale Boggs, the sitting House Majority Leader who had previously served on the Warren Commission (and yes the conspiracy theorists have done their work - apparently Boggs, though publicly defending the findings, had private doubts and it was he - a Louisiana Congressman - who spurred Jim Garrison into investigating the case).

Don Young was first elected in the March 1973 special election, the only Republican gain during that term.

Don Young seems to have never been all that personally popular, but he brought a lot of federal money into the state which helped keep him in place for so long

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 10:01:58 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 13, 2024 9:17:29 GMT timrollpickering said:

Slight correction - in 1972 Democrat Nick Begich (senior - the current Republican candidate's grandfather) won election to a second term between disappearing in a plane crash in October and being declared dead at the end of December. Also on board was Hale Boggs, the sitting House Majority Leader who had previously served on the Warren Commission (and yes the conspiracy theorists have done their work - apparently Boggs, though publicly defending the findings, had private doubts and it was he - a Louisiana Congressman - who spurred Jim Garrison into investigating the case).

Don Young was first elected in the March 1973 special election, the only Republican gain during that term.

Don Young seems to have never been all that personally popular, but he brought a lot of federal money into the state which helped keep him in place for so long

Yes 2020 shows this very well. Trump, Sullivan, Young won by 10.