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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 10:01:30 GMT
Very little noteworthy from Bletchley East. Pretty much par for everyone. This was the sort of ward (and I assume Gateshead as well) where Labour would have been vulnerable on the Winter Fuel Allowance changes - no sign it's actually cutting through to the ballot box. I think the Gateshead result was pretty poor for Labour- polling 30% and a 19% drop since May. A real mixed bag of results this week. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 13, 2024 10:03:41 GMT
Very little noteworthy from Bletchley East. Pretty much par for everyone. This was the sort of ward (and I assume Gateshead as well) where Labour would have been vulnerable on the Winter Fuel Allowance changes - no sign it's actually cutting through to the ballot box. Apart from OAP land Stoke Newington? |
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Post by phil156 on Sept 13, 2024 10:11:58 GMT
Just contacted NORTH NORFOLK the Elections Team is in a meeting! They post it as soon as its finished when ever that is
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 13, 2024 10:15:26 GMT
On the GWBWI, LDms are currently +95 and Grns +93. Who's going to come out on top? Will the Lib Dems losing the seat in Freebridge Lynn affect things as they're not actually standing, or is that then not counted for them. Lib Dems have endorsed the independent candidate, so a win for him would be a LD victory in a sense, but the GWBWI probably can't take account of that. There is however no Green candidate there either. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 10:16:52 GMT
Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn
Ind 723
Con 454
Lab 167
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 10:28:23 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 10 elections held on the 12th September, there have now been 109 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 25- Held 17 and lost 8- 6 to Labour, 1 to RefUK and 1 to an Independent (retention rate 68%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 60- held 54 and lost 6, 3 to the Greens, 2 to the Conservatives and 1 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 90%) and have gained 10
The Lib Dems have defended 15, held 9 and lost 6 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 60%) and have gained 1
The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3
RefUK have gained. 1 seat
SNP have gained 1 seat
There have been 7 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 2 seats
Overall totals and net changes
Con 23 (-2)
Lab 64 (+4)
LD 10 (-5)
Green 5 (+3)
Ind 5 (-2)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 13, 2024 10:34:23 GMT
Will the Lib Dems losing the seat in Freebridge Lynn affect things as they're not actually standing, or is that then not counted for them. Lib Dems have endorsed the independent candidate, so a win for him would be a LD victory in a sense, but the GWBWI probably can't take account of that. There is however no Green candidate there either. If I understand correctly, and I probably don't, I think James doesn't count the vote share change where there either wasn't a candidate previously or isn't this time, but not sure if seat changes have an impact. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Sept 13, 2024 10:47:04 GMT
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 13, 2024 10:49:49 GMT
Very little noteworthy from Bletchley East. Pretty much par for everyone. This was the sort of ward (and I assume Gateshead as well) where Labour would have been vulnerable on the Winter Fuel Allowance changes - no sign it's actually cutting through to the ballot box. A 4.75% swing to the Tories in Bletchley within a few months is a good result for them. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2024 10:52:58 GMT
Very little noteworthy from Bletchley East. Pretty much par for everyone. This was the sort of ward (and I assume Gateshead as well) where Labour would have been vulnerable on the Winter Fuel Allowance changes - no sign it's actually cutting through to the ballot box. A 4.75% swing to the Tories in Bletchley within a few months is a good result for them. Customary low turnout and it was clear Labour were always going to win - close to meaningless I would say. A double figure swing might at least have indicated something. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 13, 2024 11:11:11 GMT
Thought that the SNP absence might give them a chance, but that is impressive. And what on earth happened to the Tory vote?? The top 3 candidates lived on Arran, the bottom 3 didn't. Previous Tory cllr was prominent locally - probably as simple as that. Still an impressive Labour result to be so far clear. Also, our candidate wasn't a local and was mainland based. Being a local really matters on the islands and we should have either put an islander up or not stood, like the SNP. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2024 11:22:06 GMT
From the stats andrewp posted, I presume they are treating the Norfolk result as a loss for the LibDems (from the earlier byelection) rather than Tories (who won in 2021)? |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Sept 13, 2024 11:27:09 GMT
The top 3 candidates lived on Arran, the bottom 3 didn't. Previous Tory cllr was prominent locally - probably as simple as that. Still an impressive Labour result to be so far clear. Also, our candidate wasn't a local and was mainland based. Being a local really matters on the islands and we should have either put an islander up or not stood, like the SNP. Still an awful result, they could’ve expected to do better than that. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 13, 2024 11:42:43 GMT
Also, our candidate wasn't a local and was mainland based. Being a local really matters on the islands and we should have either put an islander up or not stood, like the SNP. Still an awful result, they could’ve expected to do better than that. Yeah, but I don't blame the public tbh. The leadership contest has hardly been edifying, especially now with legal threats bandying about, and it doesn't look good for 'Scotland's strong opposition' to be engaging in a civil war. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 12:16:59 GMT
From the stats andrewp posted, I presume they are treating the Norfolk result as a loss for the LibDems (from the earlier byelection) rather than Tories (who won in 2021)? Yes I have treated it as a loss for the Lib Dems- as I would have already treated it as a Con loss last year and I don’t think I should treat it as a Con loss again. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 13, 2024 12:31:57 GMT
Arran is a Lab gain Lab 748 Ind 402 Green 340 Con 90 RefUK 55 LD 12 Not a majority, so we've got some preference flow figures to look forward to still |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 13, 2024 12:37:18 GMT
For those who like percentages
Arran (North Ayrshire) council by-election, first preferences:
LAB: 45.4% (+35.4)
IND: 24.4% (+2.4)
GRN: 20.6% (+10.7)
CON: 5.5% (-27.0)
REF: 3.3% (+3.3)
LDEM: 0.7% (+0.7)
No SNP (-25.7) as prev.
Freebridge Lynn (Norfolk) council by-election result:
IND: 53.8% (+53.8)
CON: 33.8% (+2.8)
LAB: 12.4% (+5.8)
No LDem (-38.4) and Grn (-24.0) as prev.
Ind candidate is LDem endorsed.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 13, 2024 12:44:20 GMT
What are the changes in Norfolk from 2021?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 13, 2024 12:57:29 GMT
Very little noteworthy from Bletchley East. Pretty much par for everyone. This was the sort of ward (and I assume Gateshead as well) where Labour would have been vulnerable on the Winter Fuel Allowance changes - no sign it's actually cutting through to the ballot box. A 4.75% swing to the Tories in Bletchley within a few months is a good result for them. Really? That seems pretty charitable to me. 431 votes out of a 10k electorate. With no Reform candidate on the ballot paper. Out of Government. Winter Fuel Allowance issue live. all the capacity to campaign here they didn't have in May. And a clearly less embedded Labour candidate than in May. Get excited about 4.75% if you want - I think that's saying the glass is half full when it's almost empty. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 13, 2024 13:01:11 GMT
What are the changes in Norfolk from 2021? Con -30.9 Lab -3.2 No Green this time. No Indy in 2021 |
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