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Post by sanders on Sept 2, 2024 13:25:00 GMT
Having lived in London Fields, well over the boundary in Victoria ward, I just thought I'd say the decision by the Independent and the Greens to coordinate was very wise. The Greens can now focus on hammering home their message in Stoke Newington, a ward which was ok for them in 2006, although the 2009 by-election was a fairly static Labour victory despite the national picture, but maybe Labour's floor was higher then that it is 15 years later. If the Greens don't win Stokey, they should probably consider disbanding in Hackney. When we lived there, my wife and I voted for Zoe Garbett in the 2023 Mayoral contest and I think she probably got within a few percentage points of Labour in Clissold and Stoke Newington (although we didn't get, to the best of my knowledge, ward breakdowns for that by-election).
London Fields is also gentrifying a bit, but I think the left-wing independent Sarah Byrne will take it, depending on how much residual Labour support there is on the estates. I'm pretty sure the council estate tower blocks abutting the Regents Canal saved Labour in the De Beauvoir by-elections (albeit that Mayoral coat-tails and higher turnout saw them extend their lead over the Greens by an iota in the May 2024 local contest compared to July 2022.
I think Labour loses both Hackney seats based on my knowledge of the wards in question from being a rwisdnet in Victoria in Meg Hillier's Hackney South & Shoreditch constituency. That said, and I should say this, Labour have held up very well in Hackney by-elections, winning Cazenove and De Beauvoir in May, and retaining the De Beauvoir seat in 2022. The Mayoral victory was still basically a 2-1 win for them too.
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Post by phil156 on Sept 11, 2024 14:40:36 GMT
MILTON KEYNES & NORTH AYRSHIRE Counting Friday all the others count Thursday at 2200 lets hope they all publish the results
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Post by sanders on Sept 11, 2024 17:29:42 GMT
Leafletted in Hackney for Byrne today. A few posters up for her. One Labour sign seen so far. It’ll be interesting to see swings. The Greens quite clearly endorsing Byrne. The WPB might cause some issues. They are emphasising Gaza a lot.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Sept 11, 2024 20:44:16 GMT
Outside chance for Reform in Gateshead?
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053 
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Post by jamie on Sept 11, 2024 22:10:10 GMT
Outside chance for Reform in Gateshead? It’s not a particularly Reform friendly area. It’s basically the town centre ward. Mostly working class but with a lot of private renters, students, ethnic minorities. Far more likely the Greens would win as this is their target ward and turnout will be abysmal (which is not to say that they will win, just that Reform won’t). |
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Post by sanders on Sept 12, 2024 6:51:35 GMT
A few thoughts on Hackney's contests.
Here's my estimate for 2023 Mayor: London Fields: LAB 52% GRN 33%; Stoke Newington: LAB 43% GRN 37%.
Greens really ought to win Stokey. If we don't then that's embarassing. It's the third best Green ward. The best ones is Dalston of course. The second best is Hackney Downs.
London Fields is a stretch obviously. I've worked the ward a lot. Lots of Independent psoters for Byrne. One Labour sign bordering the Fields. If we lose =/= split opposition. The alliance was a smart move.
Every prediction has Labour holding Stokey. Every one except my own forecast. It's not safe Labour these days. It's changed hugely in recent years. It was already competitive in 2006. That year, the Greens won Clissold. They got close in the Downs. So they've long-standing wells of support. Labour holding Stokey would be shocking. The recent swings suggest it's unlikely. If you look at De Beauvoir. That saw vast swings to Green. Hackney saw a big pro-Green swing. That was in 2022 - it's continued. The by-elections have seen close contests. Cazenove did change hands in January. De Beauvoir almost fell (July 2022).
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 12, 2024 7:11:48 GMT
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Post by sanders on Sept 12, 2024 7:20:53 GMT
I can't prove this, but I don't think Stoke Newington was safe Labour in the 2023 mayoral election. So, it's not exactly 'safe for Labour at all levels of government'. It was probably fairly close, given the 8% swing from Labour to Green in the overall Mayoral race. There were, to my mind, two travesties in 2023: 1) the absence o SV; 2) the lack of ward breakdowns. Alas, we work with what we have, don't we? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 12, 2024 22:18:44 GMT
Bow East.
15.18% turnout.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 12, 2024 22:19:29 GMT
GATESHEAD Bridges
Robert Waugh (Lab) 320
Jonathan Aibi (L Dem) 255
Rachel Cabral (GP) 253
David James Ayre (Ref UK) 166
Paul Sterling (C) 53
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Post by Rutlander on Sept 12, 2024 22:21:48 GMT
NORTH JESMOND
Peter Allen (LD) - 740
Callum Buchanan (LAB) - 234
Stephen Dawes (CON) - 35
Anas El-Hamri (REF) - 26
Shehla Naqvi (G) - 93
Liz Panton (Party of Women) - 19
LD HOLD
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Sept 12, 2024 23:02:08 GMT
NORTH JESMOND Peter Allen (LD) - 740 Callum Buchanan (LAB) - 234 Stephen Dawes (CON) - 35 Anas El-Hamri (REF) - 26 Shehla Naqvi (G) - 93 Liz Panton (Party of Women) - 19 LD HOLD Increase in LD share - %ages from Election Maps UK x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1834360657694671354 |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 12, 2024 23:02:11 GMT
HACKNEY, London Fields - Lab hold
Lab 746 Ind 437 C 72 LD 71 Workers 52
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 12, 2024 23:03:59 GMT
Reported that the Green Party have gained Stoke Newington.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 12, 2024 23:19:04 GMT
TOWER HAMLETS LBC; Bow East
EDWARDS, Robin William (Conservative) 239
GEORGE, Rupert (Green) 722
MOHAMED, Abdi (Labour) 1266
PROUDFOOT, Siobhan Linzi (Liberal Democrat) 148
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 12, 2024 23:22:22 GMT
CAMBRIDGE Romsey
GARDINER-SMITH, Beth (Labour) 596
KARIMJEE, Zak (Green) 409
WALMSLEY, John (Liberal Democrat) 249
NELSON, Rob (Conservative) 138
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 12, 2024 23:48:59 GMT
Some percentages from Britain Elects
As ever I do not vouch for the changes in share
London Fields (Hackney) council by-election result:
LAB: 54.1% (-6.9)
IND: 31.7% (+31.7)
CON: 5.2% (+5.2)
LDEM: 5.2% (-8.0)
WP: 3.8% (+3.8)
Valid votes cast: 1,378
Romsey (Cambridge) council by-election result:
LAB: 42.8% (-2.7)
GRN: 29.4% (+8.7)
LDEM: 17.9% (+3.4)
CON: 9.9% (-9.3)
Valid votes cast: 1,392
Bow East (Tower Hamlets) council by-election result:
LAB: 53.3% (+6.1)
GRN: 30.4% (+14.1)
CON: 10.1% (+4.4)
LDEM: 6.2% (-2.3)
No smaller party (-22.3) as previous.
Valid votes cast: 2,375
Labour HOLD.
Stoke Newington (Hackney) council by-election result:
GRN: 53.0% (+19.5)
LAB: 40.0% (-19.2)
LDEM: 3.3% (+3.3)
CON: 3.1% (-4.1)
IND: 0.5% (+0.5)
Valid votes cast: 2,362
Bridges (Gateshead) council by-election result:
LAB: 30.6% (-27.7)
LDEM: 24.4% (+13.0)
GRN: 24.2% (+9.8)
REF: 15.9% (+15.9)
CON: 5.1% (-10.9)
Valid votes cast: 1,047
North Jesmond (Newcastle upon Tyne) council by-election result:
LDEM: 64.5% (+2.9)
LAB: 20.4% (-6.0)
GRN: 8.1% (-0.2)
CON: 3.1% (-0.6)
REF: 2.3% (+2.3)
POW: 1.7% (+1.7)
Valid votes cast: 1,147
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Post by listener on Sept 12, 2024 23:51:27 GMT
Do we have voting numbers from Stoke Newington?
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Sept 13, 2024 0:13:32 GMT
Stoke Newington Vote Totals:
GRN 1,253
LAB 945
LDM 78
CON 74
IND 12
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Post by sanders on Sept 13, 2024 4:14:24 GMT
Stoke Newington Vote Totals: GRN 1,253 LAB 945 LDM 78 CON 74 IND 12 Broadly what I expected there, really. They could've won London Fields, potentially. No one else thought Green win! Stoke Newington was always going Green. A 19% swing is very impressive. Consider that they started with 29%. Estimated 10% swing from 2023 mayoral. I had 2023 as Labour 43%-37%. Applying the Stokey swing across Hackney.Green gain from Labour: Clissold (3*); Dalston; De Beauvoir; Hackney Downs (2); Haggerston (3); Hoxton East & Shoreditch (3); Hoxton West (3); King's Park (3); Lea Bridge (3); London Fields (3**); Shacklewell (2): Stoke Newington (2); Victoria (3***). Green gain from Labour (35/57 seats).
It's apposite that, on the ninth anniversary of Jeremy Corbyn's election as Labour leader in 2015, Labour loses the once rock solid Stoke Newington ward. *Incumbent elected as Labour, now sits as Hackney Independent Socialist Group **Greens didn't contest the recent by-election ***Incumbent elected as Labour, now sits as Hackney Independent Socialist Group |
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